Blue Jays: Examining a season worth of at-bats for Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Between two abbreviated seasons, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has basically played one full MLB campaign. How does his production look in that context?

It’s been an exciting start to the MLB career of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., even if he’s already been through a fair bit at the highest level.

The 26-year-old made his big league debut in 2018, and split his time between second base and shortstop that season. He showed a lot of promise at the plate, and plenty of raw ability on defence, especially with a strong throwing arm. So much so that there was a time a little over a year ago that I thought he could be the Blue Jays’ starting shortstop in 2019, and maybe even beyond.

Turns out I was very wrong about that, as Gurriel Jr. ended up beginning last season as the primary second baseman after the Blue Jays signed Freddy Galvis to play short. It’s a good thing they did too, because Gurriel Jr. ended up struggling so bad at second base that he had to be demoted to Triple-A for a while to get back on track. By the time he returned to the big leagues, the Blue Jays viewed him as an outfielder, and he hasn’t been back to the infield since.

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After watching him last season, I’m confident that he’s going to be a capable outfielder, and maybe even a defensive asset in left field. He hasn’t brought much value on defence to the Blue Jays so far, but with more time to re-adjust to a position he hadn’t played professionally since he was the 2015-16 season when he was 21 years old.

And now that he appears to be more settled defensively, I suspect that we’re going to see another step forward on offence for the talented Cuban, even if he’s been pretty good so far. In fact, if you add up the 65 games he played as a rookie and the 84 more he wracked up last year, Gurriel Jr. has played in close to the equivalent of a full season. With that in mind, how do the numbers look so far?

He’s now had 606 plate appearances as a big leaguer, and thus far he’s slashed .279/.320/.499 with 31 home runs, 27 doubles, and 85 RBI. It’s a big problematic that he’s struck out 145 times against just 29 walks, but that’s also a fairly common tale with young hitters these days, and something he’ll continue to work on as he matures in the league.

Thus far, Gurriel Jr. has earned 1.7 bWAR over that span, which is a little above average. That said, his overall value has been hurt by his defensive numbers, as he posted a -1.0 dWAR in 2018, and followed that with -0.5 last year. It’s not as simple as adding the oWAR to get the final value, but you can see that’s where he’s contributed more, with marks of 1.2 in 2018 and 1.9 last year.

I believe that Gurriel Jr. will be at least an average outfielder going forward, and I would be surprised to see him post another negative dWAR figure. I also believe that if he can stay healthy and play for a full season (that’s obviously not going to happen this year now), that he can be a 3 or even 4 win contributor on offence. When we look at the numbers he’s put up over parts of his first two seasons, it’s not hard to see it coming together.

All we need now is for baseball to return so he can get a chance to put a real full season together, and I’m really looking forward to watching the 26-year-old go to work.