Blue Jays series simulation: Jays vs. Cincinnati Reds

With the season on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m doing a game by game simulation based on the Blue Jays schedule, and using the online version of Statis Pro. For those of you that follow Mike Wilner on Twitter, it’s very similar to what he’s doing, just that we’re using different games to do it. I have also made an account for the simulations on Instagram that can be followed @jays.simgames

After a four game series against the Red Sox, the Blue Jays have an early interleague series at home vs the Reds.

How Statis Pro works

Just like a real ball game, you set your lineup where you choose each player’s spot in the batting order and everything else that comes with managing a ball game. Basically you are the manager.

To play, you have cards that you go through that have a bunch of information on them. Each pitcher has a PB number with the lowest number starting at 2, and the highest number going at 9. For example, Hyun-Jin Ryu has a PB of 2-9 so if you flip a card with a PB of 7, you go based off the stats on his card. If you flip a card and get a PB of 11, you go based on the stats of the batter’s card.

After you flip the first card, you have to flip another card to determine the random number. Let’s say you get the first card of a PB 7 with Ryu pitching and the random number is 38. Ryu’s card may have a strikeout from the numbers 22-46, meaning if you get a PB 7 and a random number of 38, Ryu struck out whoever he faced.

Let’s say Ryu is pitching and he’s facing J.D. Martinez of the Red Sox. You flip the first card and get a PB of 10 and you flip the next card and get a random number of 26. Martinez’s card may have a double to centre field as 24-26, meaning if you get a PB of 10 and a random number of 26, Martinez got a double off Ryu.

Every pitcher has a limit regarding how long he can go. Let’s say Ryu has a limit of 12, that means he can stay in the game until he gives up more than 12 hits, walks, earned runs, home runs, balks, passed balls and wild pitches combined. Once he exceeds 12 he can still stay in the game, but you no longer flip a card to determine a PB, only a random number where you go off the stats based on the hitter’s card.

Game 5 

Starting pitchers: 

Blue Jays: Trent Thornton
Reds: Wade Miley

Lineups

Reds

Akiyama CF
Senzel SS
Suarez 3B
Votto 1B
Moustakas
Castellanos RF
Dietrich DH
Barnhart C
Winker LF

Blue Jays

Bichette SS
Biggio 2B
Gurriel Jr LF
Guerrero Jr 3B
Tellez DH
Hernandez RF
Shaw 1B
Grichuk CF
Jansen C

Game recap 

The Reds had a huge 2nd inning scoring five runs with a HR coming from Eugenio Suarez. In total, the Reds hit six home runs with two of them coming from Suarez and Moustakas apart, one coming from Nick Senzel and another from Nick Castellanos. Both Shogo Akiyama and Senzel got six plate appearances each in this game. Wade Miley was able to go the whole distance only giving up two hits, which both came from Lourdes Gurriel Jr. The Jays only run came in the 3rd, which scored Danny Jansen on a Gurriel Jr single. Trent Thornton was only able to last 2.2 innings and was then relieved by A.J. Cole who lasted 2.2 innings as well and was then relieved by Brian Moran who went 3.2 innings.

Final score: Reds 11 Blue Jays 1

Key stats (Reds) 

Miley: 9IP 5K 2H 3BB 1ER CG W

Senzel: 3 for 6 with 2 singles and a HR

Suarez: 2 for 5 with 2 HR

Moustakas: 2 for 5 with 2 HR

Castellanos: 2 for 4 with a double and HR

Barnhart: 3 for 5

Winker: 4 for 4 with a walk

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Biggio: 0 for 2 with 2 walks

Gurriel Jr: 2 for 4 with a double

Game 6

Starting pitchers:

Blue Jays: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Reds: Anthony DeScalfani

Lineups

Reds

Senzel CF
Aquino RF
Suarez 3B
Votto 1B
Moustakas 2B
Castellanos DH
Galvis SS
Winker LF
Barnhart C

Blue Jays

Bichette SS
Panik 2B
Gurriel Jr LF
Guerrero Jr 3B
Tellez DH
Grichuk CF
Shaw 1B
Hernandez RF
McGuire C

Game recap

Hyun-Jin Ryu gave up one run in the first on a Mike Moustakas double that scored Suarez. They put another run on the board in the 4th with a Jesse Winker solo shot. In the bottom of the 7th, Rowdy Tellez started things off with a single to centre. Anthony Alford came into pinch run but was out in a double play off the bat of Randal Grichuk. The next batter was Travis Shaw in which Cavan Biggio came into pinch hit for and ended up hitting a HR. That ended up being the only run the Jays scored.

Final score: Reds 2 Blue Jays 1

Key stats (Reds)

DeSclafani: 6.2IP 7K 5H 2BB 1ER 1HR W

Strop: 1.1 IP 3K 1H

Senzel: 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts

Moustakas: 2 for 4 with a double

Winker: 1 for 4 with a HR

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Ryu: 6.2IP 8K 7H 2BB 2ER 1HR L

Biggio: 1 for 2 with a HR

Game 7

Starting pitchers: 

Blue Jays: Tanner Roark
Reds: Luis Castillo

Lineups

Reds

Akiyama CF
Castellanos RF
Suarez 3B
Votto 1B
Moustakas 2B
Aquino DH
Galvis SS
Dietrich LF
Casali C

Blue Jays

Bichette SS
Panik 2B
Gurriel Jr LF
Guerrero Jr 3B
Tellez DH
Biggio 1B
Hernandez RF
Grichuk CF
Jansen C

Game recap

The only run of the game came in the 5th inning with a home run from former Blue Jay Freddy Galvis. The Jays did have the bases loaded with two outs in the 5th, but Panik lined out to 3rd. Both starters went seven innings. For the Reds bullpen, Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias combined to pitch two innings, striking out four and giving up only one hit.

Final score: Reds 1 Blue Jays 0

Key stats (Reds)

Castillo: 7IP 6K 5H 3BB 0ER W

Galvis: 1 for 4 with a HR

Casali: 2 for 3 with 2 singles

Key stats (Blue Jays)

Roark: 7IP 7K 7H 1ER 1HR L

Moran: 2IP 3K 1H

Hernandez: 2 for 4 with a double

Next: Blue Jays top 10 franchise strikeout leaders

Blue Jays simulation record: 3-4

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