Toronto Blue Jays- The Pursuit of a More Productive Outfield

The 2019 Blue Jays outfield ranked near the bottom of the league. What avenues should the front office pursue to obtain better results?

With the 2020 MLB season currently on hold, let’s take a look back at the Blue Jays 2019 outfield. The front office made some significant additions to the starting rotation, and they already have a predominantly homegrown infield, which many people expect to make big strides forward, but what about the Jays outfield?

The 2019 Blue Jay’s lined up 14 different outfielders throughout the season. The most common names on the lineup card were Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.   This group produced less then steller work with both the glove and the bat.   When we compare their results with the teams that made the playoffs in 2019, the results are staggering.

Team         DRS           UZR         WAR        OBP

Jays           -27          – 11.6         1.6           .286

Astros        51             23.2         15.1         .344

Dodgers    51             18             17.7         .343

Yankees    30              15.6         14.2         .348

Nationals  24              5.9           10.1         .358

Brewers    25             13.8          12.8         .359

Athletics   20             10.9           10.8        .337

Braves        8               -0.9            9.3          .344

Cardinals    4               13.2           6.8          .330

Twins         11              14.7          10.5        .321

Rays          12                 3.9           10.8        .335

In the small illustration above, with the stats provided by Fangraphs.com, you can see that the Blue Jays ranked near the bottom of the league in many defensive and offensive statistics.  Let’s take a look at how the Blue Jays could change the results from the outfield.

Internal Growth

This avenue is the easiest course for the Blue Jays front office to pursue and the obvious approach that the FO is taking since they didn’t make any outfield additions during the off-season.  Just sit back and wait for things to hopefully get better. Is this a good approach or even an approach that could work?  As mentioned earlier, the Blue Jays predominantly used Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the outfield. With the late addition of Derek Fisher and the out of options, Anthony Alford, there could be a couple of additional names to add to the list.

Randal Grichuk

By this time, I think most people should have a pretty good idea of what Grichuk is. Randal will turn 29 in August and has now played in parts of 6 MLB seasons. Grichuk has always had low walk rates coupled with high strikeout rates, which will almost always lead to low OBP. Grichuk has a career OBP of just .293, and expecting that to change much will likely leave you in tears.   If Grichuk can get back to his 2018 production while playing average defense in centerfield, I think he could be a 2 WAR player with the ability to knock 30 homers out of the park.  At this point, I view Grichuk as a placeholder for the Jays centerfielder of the future. Who that is might be a good question, though.

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez is 27 years of age and has struggled to find the consistency to be an everyday MLB outfielder. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has had strikeout rates over 30% and has struggled mightily in the outfield on defense. However, that’s in the past. I genuinely believe that 2020 could be a breakout season for Hernandez. With an improvement in strikeout numbers and more consistent playing time, I believe that Hernandez could produce the shocking season like Jose Bautista‘s 2010 season where he hit 54 homers after just 13 the season prior or last year’s shocker from Jorge Soler where he came out of nowhere to hit 48 for the Royals.

If the Jays are dreaming of a breakout, this could be the player most likely to surprise. However, even with a breakout season, Hernandez could still max out on WAR at 4.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr./strong>

Gurriel Jr is 26 years old and has found a place as the Blue Jays left fielder. Gurriel Jr has shown spots of great promise but has had issues attempting to stay on the field.  The 2020 baseball season could be a big year for Gurriel Jr to really make his mark on this team. He is signed through the 2023 season and could be a big piece of the Blue Jay’s future successes.

Gurriel Jr has provided about league average defense in left but has shown flashes with a strong arm. Hopefully, with more consistent playing time, he could develop into a plus defender.  On the offensive side, Gurriel Jr has legitimate game power and should be able to hit 30+ homers if he can stay healthy. With a slightly more patient approach at the plate, he should be able to increase his walk rate and decrease his strikeout numbers, which would lead to a more positive OBP.  With some luck, Gurriel Jr could top 3+ in the WAR stats.

Even if everything was to break right for this group of outfielders, they would still be hard-pressed to crack 9 WAR combined.

Farm System

The Blue Jays have spent a great deal of time and effort building up a strong minor league farm system over the past several years.  However, one position that hasn’t been flooded with talent in the farm system is the outfield.

The almost-there group

Let’s look at the upper level of the system. There are players like Billy McKinney, Derek Fisher ( I’ll put him here because I didn’t mention him yet), Anthony Alford, Jonathan Davis, Joshua Palacios, and Forrest Wall. Of this group, McKinney, Fisher, Alford, and Davis have all been given a look at the MLB level. The problem is that none of them has really grabbed the opportunity.   I’m sure the Jays will hang onto these players for the time being and give each another look, but I’m not sure any of them is an all-star in the waiting.

Further down the line

If we look at the top 30 prospects list from MLB.com, there are only four outfielders listed.  We have already touched on Anthony Alford, who is listed at #21. Beyond that, we have Griffin Conine, Dasan Brown, and Will Robertson. Brown has excellent speed, but he’s only 18, so he will still be a bit far off from actually helping the Jays.  Robertson has good power but will need to advance through the system to a higher level before I get too excited, and then there’s Conine. Baseball savant stated that team officials believe that Conine has the best raw power in the organization.  On the flip side, he did have a 35.9 strikeout rate in 2019 with the Lansing Lugnuts.

A change of position

The Blue Jays currently have a young, controllable infield for the next six years. The Blue Jays top 30 prospects list currently has eight middle infielders that could potentially be MLB ready in the next 1-3 years.  Where does everybody play?

An argument could be made that the Blue Jays have made drafting and signing middle infielders a priority over the past several years.  Many middle infielders have successfully made the transition from the dirt to the grass.  Do the Jays have some players in the minors that could make the switch?  Currently, the #22 prospect on the Jays top 30 list is Santiago Espinal.  Espinal had a good 2019 season, which was split between AA New Hampshire and AAA Buffalo.  Espinal was also having a good spring training, but there doesn’t appear to be room for another middle infielder on the 26 man roster.

Would a .350 OBP and good defense in CF be better then Grichuk’s 30 homer potential and his .290 OBP?  Kevin Smith is another player that could force himself into a crowded middle infield picture with a successful 2020 campaign.  Could Smith provide 20 homer potential, good defense, and a better OBP than Grichuk?  Besides those two, there is also the Jays #2 prospect, Jordan Groshans, and #13 prospect Otto Lopez that could be ready for MLB action in the next two years.

The Amateur Draft

Now that the MLB owners and MLBPA have agreed on moving forward with the 2020 Amateur Entry Draft, the Blue Jays can take a big sigh of relief. Due to the poor 2019 Jays record, they now have the 5th overall pick in the draft. The last time the Blue Jays picked this high in the draft was back when they selected Vernon Wells also with the 5th overall pick.  Most players drafted won’t make an immediate impact on the MLB roster, but with a couple of minor league seasons, they will still be in the realm of a possibility with the young core that the Jays have assembled.

So who might the Jays draft?  If you follow college baseball or even the many mock drafts that are on the internet, you might notice that there are several names that are routinely at the top of most mock drafts. Those names include RHP Emerson Hancock, LHP Asa Lacy, 3B/2B/CF Austin Martin, 1B/OF Spencer Torkelson, OF Garrett Mitchell, and 2B Nick Gonzales.

To touch briefly on the pitchers, both Hancock and Lacy are likely to be picked before the Jays 5th pick. Hancock was previously seen as a potential #1 pick and has “Ace” type stuff, and Lacy who has been rumoured as the Jays pick in many mock drafts has likely improved his stock with a brief 2020 NCAA season with numbers like 24 IP, 48 SO, 0.75 ERA, and a whip of 0.708.

So that leaves the hitters.  Austin Martin has put up another monster season before the early ending. He has also been mentioned regularly as a possible #1 selection, so I won’t pretend that he will still be on the board at #5.  So that leaves the following 3;

Spencer Torkelson

Torkelson has been seen as the best hitter in the draft. All he has done since he joined the collegiate ranks is hit and break records. Torkelson has been mentioned as a possible #1 selection, but his lack of defensive versatility is the big negative with him. Torkelson likely is viewed as a 1B/DH type, but he has tried to address this by playing the outfield in the Cape Cod Summer League. If Torkelson is still available at #5 then I would suggest that the Jays would take him as the best player available. Torkelson possesses legitimate game power with 23 homers in 242 AB and a .351 BA and .446 OBP during his second season at Arizona State. In the recent shortened season in only 17 games, Torkelson was hitting .340 BA with an insane .598 OBP.

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales has been a standout at New Mexico State. He has predominantly played 2B but was moved to SS for the 2020 NCAA shortened season. There has been some concern with the glove, but it is the bat that will get him to the major leagues. In 2019 Gonzales hit a ridiculous .432 BA with a .532 OBP.  He then followed that up with a good showing at the Cape Cod Summer league where he would hit .351 BA and .451 OBP. In the shortened 2020 NCAA season, Gonzales would continue but with an uptick in the power department.  In only 58 AB Gonzales had 12 homers, which may be a little misleading as some of his doubles were likely making it over the fence. Overall, Gonzales looks like a 20+ homer MLB regular that could likely hit for both power and OBP.   A move to the outfield might be difficult, with some scouts questioning his arm strength.

Garrett Mitchell

The true outfielder of the bunch. Mitchell has been viewed as a five-tool player. His biggest knock has been the concern that his diabetes could be challenging to manage over a grueling MLB schedule.  In Mitchell’s sophomore season at UCLA, he led the team in most offensive categories, including breaking a 30-year-old team record with 12 triples.   Mitchell produced a line of .349/.418/.566 and would chip in 18 steals. Mitchell was also a Gold Glove finalist for his work in the outfield.  Mitchell’s successes continued in the shortened 2020 NCAA season.  Through 15 games, Mitchell had a similar slash line of .355/.425/.484. Though Mitchell has yet to find the power to his swing, he could make for an excellent left-handed leadoff hitter with good OBP and Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Free agency

The big trick for teams in free agency is paying for future value and not for past performance.  When assessing possible free agents that would help the Blue Jays in the win column, fit in the current Jays contention window and be affordable, a few names come to mind.  If we think of the 2020 season as a season to improve but not necessarily contend (if it ever gets played), then let’s think of the 2021 and 2022 seasons as the years when the contention window opens up.  So what outfielders might be available?

The cream of the crop has to be Mookie Betts.  As Jays fans, we have all watched as Betts has dismantled the Jays for the past several seasons as a member of the Boston Red Sox.  He is set to become the predominant free agent in 2021 and is expected to top Bryce Harper‘s $330 million contract and likely be seeking close to a Mike Trout type money.  Huge dollars for any club, but the Blue Jays might be one of the better fits and still able to afford the contract.  Betts is one of the best players in the league and would definitely look good in a Jays uniform.

The only other outfielder in the 2021 free agency class, which might fill the Jays needs, would be George Springer.  With Springer, I have my hesitations.  Springer will be a few years older than Betts and doesn’t have a track record of success.  Springer is in the category of possibly paying for past performances while we as Jays fans watch declining skills as he enters into his mid 30’s.

The 2022 free agency class doesn’t boast the Betts type superstar, but there still could be a couple of upgrades. The two names that pop off the page are Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber.  With Conforto, the Jays would get a good 3-4 WAR player with 30 homers, 100 RBI potential with solid defense.  Schwarber would be all about the offense although I think the defense has improved over the past several years.  Neither are guys that I would break the bank for, but they would be 29 years of age and could be a solid piece for a contending Jays team.

The Trade Market

The trade market can be difficult to navigate.  For the Blue Jays to find a suitable upgrade they would really need a younger, controllable player that would match up with the team’s current contention window.  So let us rule out the Jays trading for Mike Trout or Christian Yelich because lets just face it, that’s not going to happen.  To scour through the possibilities you could dream up just about any trade but the problem is that the Jays would have to give back something substantial and by that I mean a package of Jordan Groshans and another good pitching prospect to start.  So I’ll throw a couple of names out there.

 Ramón Laureano

Laureano currently plays with the Oakland Athletics and was on pace for a 30 homer, 20 steal season before a late-season injury derailed those efforts.  Laureano did produce a 3.9 WAR campaign in 2019 while playing centerfield. Laureano’s slash line was .288/.340/.521. Now let’s remember that the projected 2020 Blue Jays starting outfielders produced WAR of 0.5, 1.2, and 1.8 which combined still doesn’t equal Laureano’s production.  Laureano is young at 25 years of age, controllable until 2025 and doesn’t cost much (which shouldn’t be a decider for the Jays).

Jeff McNeil 

McNeil, like Laureano, is controllable until 2025 but is a bit older as he is currently 27 years of age.  McNeil is not your typical outfielder as the New York Mets moved him around the field playing in both corner outfield positions, 3B and 2B.  McNeil benefits from good contact ability and low strikeout rates and produced a 2019 slash line of .318/.384/.531.  Those numbers are consistent with what he did as a rookie in 2018 over 63 games.  In 133 games in the 2019 season, McNeil was able to produce a WAR of 4.6.