Blue Jays: Looking ahead to the 2021 free agent crop

Relief Pitchers/Closers

Just like almost any other season, the Blue Jays will have some work to do when it comes to rebuilding their bullpen next winter. The most important piece could be locked down from their own roster, but it remains to be seen if Ken Giles will be extended, remain a Blue Jay for just 2020, or even get traded before the deadline, whenever that may be.

Giles could be a solid fit for the Blue Jays going forward, but if they aren’t sold on his prospects for the long-term then there are other options coming available. In fact, could be quite a few pitchers with closing experience available next winter including Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Alex Colome, Sean Doolittle, Hansel Robles, Brandon Workman and more. There are other closers who will be under a club option for 2021 that could come available as well such as Brad Hand and Hector Neris.

There’s also the possibility that the Blue Jays could be hoping to develop an in-house closer to take the reigns from Giles after he’s gone. For example, someone like Jordan Romano was talked about as a potential late-inning reliever last year, and could have the arsenal to pitch well in the role as he gains experience. Another could be Sean Reid-Foley, who has an elite fastball, but the Blue Jays are still committed to using him as a starter, at least for now.

The Blue Jays might not pony up on a multi-year pact for someone like Giles or Yates, but don’t be surprised if they spend a bit of money on the position on a shorter deal. If they could bring Giles back on a three year contract, I’m confident they would do it (assuming he’s healthy in 2020), but it’s hard to say if that will get it done. The front office should have plenty of payroll space to work with though, so I expect they’ll be busy in the relief market one way or another.

Outfield

There is a lot of upside to the Blue Jays outfield group that’s slated to start for Charlie Montoyo in 2020, but there are a lot of question marks as well.

Right now it looks like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will start in left field, with Randal Grichuk in centre and Teoscar Hernandez in right. They’ll likely have Derek Fisher somewhere in the mix, possibly in all three positions, and Anthony Alford could be in the fold as well if he makes the team. We also heard rumblings of using Cavan Biggio more in the outfield this year, although we’ll see if that is still on the table by the time baseball resumes.

If the Blue Jays aren’t satisfied with one or more of their outfielders by next off-season, there are a few notable options that could be available.

By far the most talented player and the best fit for the Blue Jays would be Mookie Betts, but it’s hard to say if they’ll be realistic contenders for his services. For comparison’s sake, Mike Trout signed a contract worth more than 400 million, and something tells me that Betts will be looking to break that same threshold. As much as I’d love to see him in a Blue Jays uniform, I don’t think they’ll play in that end of the free agency pool.

If the Blue Jays still feel they need to upgrade in centre field a year from now, they could pursue someone like George Springer, who will be expensive, but less so than Betts. They could also sign a shorter-term solution like Jackie Bradley Jr., or look to upgrade an outfield corner instead. In that case, someone like Marcell Ozuna will be available again after signing just a one year deal with Atlanta, or perhaps a left-handed bat like Joc Pederson, or Michael Brantley.

The outfield remains one of the biggest question marks for now, and until the Blue Jays know whether they’re comfortable with Grichuk in centre long-term, and/or if Teoscar Hernandez can play defence on a regular basis, it’s hard to predict what they’ll do. If they do decide they need an upgrade, there will be a few options anyway.

First Base

I included first base because it was a position with a lot of question marks going into the off-season, and in some ways they’ll continue a year from now unless Rowdy Tellez can take charge and start playing the position on a regular basis.

For now, the Blue Jays have Travis Shaw ready to make the majority of starts at first base, and he’ll be looking to bounce back from a dreadful 2019 campaign. Prior to that he was an above-average hitter for power and average, with the ability to play first, second, and third base. If the 29-year-old can get back on track with his career in 2020, he could be a fit to stick around. He’ll actually still be arbitration eligible in 2021 for the last time, so the Blue Jays could choose to retain him, even in a utility role going forward.

I know many of you are thinking that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could make the move to first base by next season, but the Blue Jays are operating as if that isn’t going to happen, and for now so am I. That said, I would still expect them to seek a short-term solution because of that eventual possibility, so a free agent like Carlos Santana (Cleveland has an expensive club option on him they’ll likely decline), or maybe even Yuli Gurriel could join his brother in Toronto on a short-term deal.

Ultimately I’m sure the Blue Jays are hoping they can find a solution for 2020 and 2021 between Tellez and Shaw, who could both provide a necessary left-handed bat to complement the rest of the group. If not, I suspect they’ll look at someone like Santana, Gurriel, or who knows, Justin Smoak will be a free agent again too.

Starting Pitchers

Last but not least are the starting pitchers, which is almost always a position of need for every team across Major League Baseball. Even if it’s not a “need”, you can always use an upgrade.

The Blue Jays could actually be in pretty good shape when it comes to their rotation a year from now, just as they are at the moment. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be in just the second of his four-year deal, and Tanner Roark will still be around for the last year of his two-season pact. Matt Shoemaker could be a free agent by then, and the Blue Jays will have a club option for Chase Anderson at 9.5 million, although I’m sure they’ll wait to decide on it until the end of the year.

Even if the Blue Jays let Anderson and Shoemaker walk, they could still fill out the rotation with in-house options like Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay, Trent Thornton, and more. It also remains to be seen if Shun Yamaguchi will end up as a starter or a reliever in North America. And of course, there’s a good chance that Nate Pearson could be one of, if not their best starting pitcher a year from now, and he’s almost certainly a lock to be in the rotation for 2021.

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All that said, I already mentioned that upgrades are always welcome when it comes to the rotation, as is depth. There likely won’t be much in the way of an “ace” available on the open market, but there are still plenty of valuable #2-3 types. That list includes Trevor Bauer, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, Mike Minor, and more. The Blue Jays could also take another run at Jake Odorizzi, who they pursued earlier this winter as a free agent before he returned to Minnesota.

Ultimately it’ll come down to the need in the organization, and with good health from the assets the Blue Jays already have in place, it’s possible they don’t add much more than depth pieces for the rotation ahead of the 2021 season. Things can change in a hurry though, especially with a pitching staff, so I’m sure the front office will be monitoring the market throughout the season and into next winter.

As I’ve already said, the Blue Jays won’t truly know what their list of needs is until the 2020 season is over, and we’re obviously a while from that point. When the time comes though, they should be in a great position of payroll flexibility, especially with Troy Tulowitzki‘s 14 million coming off the books at the end of the year.