Blue Jays: A 20-year review of the top-ranked organizational prospects

As the Jays Journal wrapped up the 2020 Top 30 prospects list I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the past 20 seasons of the #1 prospect.  Who are they and did they pan out?

Most avid Toronto Blue Jays fans take a very invested commitment into the Jays farm system and closely follow who is coming next and start to salivate about the potential impact they will have at the MLB level. So let’s take a look at how the past #1 Jays prospect has made out in their careers.

The thing about Top Prospects Lists is that there are several of them. There are pre-season lists, mid-season updates and the end of season lists. There are numerous publications that make their own lists so to keep things somewhat consistent I will utilize Baseball America’s pre-season lists for the years of 2000-2019. So let’s get this started.

2000 & 2001 – Vernon Wells

Vernon Wells was the Jays #1 prospect in both 2000 and 2001.  He was also ranked as the #4 and #11 in the top 100 prospects rankings. The Blue Jays originally drafted Wells in the 1997 amateur entry draft in the first round (5th overall). By 2002 Wells was firmly planted as the Jays centerfielder.  Wells would play in parts of 15 MLB seasons and would be a 3x all-star, 3x gold glove and a silver slugger award.

Hindsight Alternates-  None.  They got this one right.

Who did they miss in the draft- Not sure you can complain about what Wells did.

2002 – Josh Phelps

Phelps was originally drafted by the Jays in the 10th round (279 overall) in the 1996 amateur entry draft. In 2002 Phelps was listed as the 36th best prospect on MLB’S Top 100 prospect list.  He was drafted as a catcher but split his MLB playing time between DH, 1B, and catcher. Phelps played in parts of 10 MLB seasons but was your classic journeyman with 6 different teams and constantly between AAA and MLB.

Hindsight Alternates- Orlando Hudson 2x all-star, 4x gold glove

Who did they miss in the draft – When your 10th round pick plays for 10 seasons that’s pretty good.

2003 & 2006 – Dustin McGowan

McGowan was the Jays top prospect in both 2003 and 2006. He had been listed as the 36th and 48th best prospect on MLB’S Top 100 Prospects list. McGowan had been drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2000 amateur draft in the 1st round (33rd overall). Another highly touted Jays prospect that just never panned out.   McGowan has pitched in parts of 10 MLB seasons with 3 different organizations but not with great results.

Hindsight Alternates- Jayson Werth 1x all-star 2008 world series/ Ricky Romero 1x all-star

Who did they miss in the draft – Cliff Lee was selected in the 4th round. Was a 4x all-star, Cy Young winner and ERA title winner.

2004 – Alex Rios

Alex Rios was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 1999 amateur entry draft in the 1st round (19th overall).  Rios was 6th on the MLB top prospect list. Rios would play in parts of 14 MLB seasons, would be a 2x all-star and 2015 world series winner.

Hindsight Alternates-. I’ll say the experts got this one right.

Who did they miss in the draft – John Lackey was drafted in the 2nd round. Lackey pitched 15 yrs, 1x all-star, 3x world series winner, and 1x ERA leader.

2010 – Zach Stewart

Stewart was drafted by the Reds in the 3rd round (84th overall) in the 2008 amateur entry draft.  Stewart pitched a career 103 innings over 4 seasons for 3 different organizations. He owns a career 6.82 ERA.

Hindsight Alternates-.Unfortunately not much. The Jays system was really thin. Stewart wasn’t even a top 100 prospect.

Who did they miss in the draft – Stewart was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds so I can’t blame this one on the Jays.

2011 – Kyle Drabek

Drabek was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 1st round of the 2006 draft (18th overall). Drabek came to the Jays as the prize in the Roy Halladay trade. Drabek has pitched in parts of 7 MLB seasons with 3 different organizations. Drabek has never found much success with a career 5.27 ERA in almost 180 career innings.

Hindsight Alternates- Nobody else in the Jays system has really gone on to have a great career.

Who did they miss in the draft – Drabek was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies so I can’t blame this one on the Jays.

2012 – Travis d’Arnaud

d’Arnaud was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2007 draft. He was selected in the first round ( 37th overall). D’Arnaud was another piece in the Halladay trade. d’Arnaud never played an MLB game for the Jays as he was part of the package that brought R.A. Dickey to Toronto.  Injuries and inconsistency have plagued d’Arnaud’s career so far. He is currently with the Braves which is his fourth team in the past year.

Hindsight Alternates- The Jays had several prospects on top 100 lists, Anthony Gose, Jake Marisnik, Daniel Norris, but none have had much better careers then d’Arnaud.

Who did they miss in the draft – d’Arnaud was drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies so I can’t blame this one on the Jays.

2013 & 2014 – Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez was drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2010 entry draft ( 34th overall).  Sanchez made his MLB debut in 2014 pitching 33 innings out of the bullpen with a 1.09 ERA. In 2016 Sanchez would pitch almost 200 innings in 30 starts and won the ERA title with a 3.00 ERA.  Sanchez even had some Cy Young consideration.

Then came the 2017 season and the wheels fell off the bus. We all watched as injury after injury made a promising career turn into being dumped last trade deadline for another former top prospect in Derek Fisher. Sanchez was dumped by the Astros and is currently without a contract as he rehabs from yet another injury.

Hindsight Alternates- well is should have been Noah Syndergaard but he had been traded. So I’ll go with Marcus Stroman who has arguably had a better career this far.

Who did they miss in the draft – maybe a guy picked in the 9th round (272nd overall) named Jacob DeGrom.  2x Cy Young winner, 3x all-star and rookie of the year.

2015- Daniel Norris

Norris was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 2nd round ( 74th overall) in the 2011 amateur entry draft.  I for one was hoping for big things from Norris but he didn’t last long in a Jays uniform as he was part of the prospect package that brought back David Price. Due to health issues and inconsistency, Norris really hasn’t yet lived up to the promise.

Hindsight Alternates- none of the other Jays prospects from 2015 have done much better. Aaron Sanchez, Dalton Pompey, Jeff Hoffman

Who did they miss in the draft – How about Mookie Betts. He was drafted in the 5th round, ( 172nd overall). 1x MVP, 4x all-star,

2016 – Anthony Alford

Alford was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 3rd round ( 112th overall) in the 2012 draft. Alford had been ranked as high as 25th in 2016 on prospect lists. Unfortunately, we have all watched Alford’s struggles and many believe that his 2020 spring training could be his last kick at the can.

Hindsight Alternates- Unless you wanted to name a kid ( Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who hadn’t yet played pro ball the #1 prospect then the farm was pretty barren.

Who did they miss in the draft – Max Muncy could look nice at first base for the Jays. All-star last year and has hit 30+ homers with OBP of .391 and .374.

2017 & 2018 & 2019 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladdy was signed as an International Free Agent in 2015 by the Blue Jays. Time will tell but I can’t wait to watch this career play out. No point in mentioning alternatives or if they missed something. The Jays are lucky to have signed Guerrero.

2020 – Nate Pearson

Pearson was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 1st round ( 28th overall) in the 2017 amateur entry draft. Even after dealing with some injury issues Pearson has quickly advanced through the Jays minor league ranks. Many expect to watch Pearson’s MLB debut sometime in the 2020 season.

Hindsight Alternates- Can’t really say anybody at this point. Pearson looks poised for a long and hopefully successful career.

Who did they miss in the draft – Nobody. Pearson looks legit. Pearson could be the “Ace” of the Jays staff for years to come and someone that the Jays haven’t had since the days of Doc Halladay.

Conclusions

It’s interesting to look back and actually take a look at how few former #1 Blue Jays prospects have made a significant contribution to the MLB team.  I’m a firm believer that championship teams must start from within with a solid farm system that can be used as either player to supplement your team or as trade pieces to fill a hole.

It’s encouraging to see the current front office take a similar approach with an infield that could potentially be completely homegrown and a prospect farm system that is growing and still considered a top program.

I take the view that former Blue Jays front offices haven’t placed the emphasis on scouting, drafting, and development that is necessary to maintain a strong farm system. I believe that this approach has changed under Shapiro and Atkins and we can hopefully benefit from watching strong Jays teams compete for years to come.