Blue Jays: Should the 2019 outfielders blame the pitchers?

The defense provided by the Toronto Blue Jays outfielders was below average in 2019. How much of that underperformance can be attributed to the pitchers?

The pitchers-versus-outfielders debate is essentially this question: how difficult did the pitchers make the jobs of Jays outfielders in 2019? I have visual evidence of this very discussion taking place between the 2019 Blue Jays outfielders and pitchers. Check it out.

A tip of the cap to Ian Orr, a Jays Journal reader, who suggested this topic.

Catching the ball

Bob Uecker was a National League catcher in the 1960s. At some point in time, he was asked how he caught a knuckleball. Uecker replied as follows:

"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up."

It’s a funny line but I included it to set up the contrast; my analysis will examine the 2019 Blue Jays outfielders’ performance at catching the ball. Certainly, there are other aspects of outfield play that are important (throwing to the correct base, hitting the cut-off man, outfield assists, etc.). However, in a discussion of how much of the outfield’s poor defense was due to the pitchers, I think the batted ball is the area upon which to focus.

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Outs Above Average (“OAA”)

Intuitively, the probability of an outfielder making a catch is dependent upon the distance the outfielder must travel to get to the ball, how much time he has to get there, and the direction he has to travel. These factors are affected by two characteristics of the batted ball: exit velocity and launch angle.

Statcast uses both radar and hi-definition cameras, which are located in each MLB ballpark, to record the exit velocity and launch angle of every batted ball. Statcast captures the data and uses it to generate the probability that a batted ball, with a given exit velocity and launch angle, will become a hit.

How OAA Is calculated

From Statcast’s website, an example of the OAA calculation is as follows:

"…if an outfielder has a ball hit to him with a 75 percent Catch Probability — that is, one an average outfielder would make three-quarters of the time — and he catches it, he’ll receive a +.25 credit. If he misses it, he’ll receive -.75, reflecting the likelihood of that ball being caught by other outfielders."

Blue Jays OAA performance

Table 1 captures the record of the Blue Jays outfielders’ OAA for the past three seasons. The highlights are as follows:

• As a group, the Jays outfielders have been below-average in each season during the 2017-2019 period;
• The Jays left fielders have been really bad; and
• The center fielders and right fielders were fine in 2019.

The pitchers’ contribution to the poor outfield defense

If the Blue Jays pitchers contributed to the poor performance of the outfielders, we should expect to see that the average probability of catching batted balls by Blue Jays outfielders would be lower than the MLB average. Table 2 shows the following:

• The catch probability was average for the Jays left fielders and center fielders;
• The level of difficulty for the right fielders was slightly easier than the MLB average.

Conclusion

Based on Table 2 data, the 2019 Blue Jays outfielders do not have a valid case that the pitchers made their job more difficult. The level of difficulty on the batted balls that they were called upon to field was near the MLB average. Their underperformance in the field is on them.

A deeper dive into 2019

It is always good to recycle some old jokes.

Child: What do you call the player who hits but cannot field?

Parent: In the American League, the Designated Hitter; in the National, the Left Fielder.

Table 1 and Table 3 demonstrate that, on average, left fielders are relatively poor at catching batted balls. In 2019, there were only 6 teams that had positive OAA totals from the left-field position.

That being said, the Blue Jays left fielders as a group were really poor. Table 4 provides a breakdown of the Blue Jays outfielders. The three of note are Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Billy McKinney.

Gurriel Jr’s nemesis was balls hit towards the first-base line (minus 4 OAA). This should be correctable with repetition and perhaps positioning. With respect to left fielder Hernandez, this may be a moot point because the preliminary plan is for Hernandez to play right field in 2020. Nevertheless, he had difficulty with balls hit towards the third-base line (negative 3 OAA). Similar to Gurriel Jr., more time in left field and possibly positioning may help. McKinney had difficulties with balls hit by right-handed batters (minus 5 OAA). However, in terms of OAA, he was average in right field. Maybe McKinney and left field are matter/anti-matter.

What does it mean for 2020?

Left field

The defense provided by Blue Jays outfielders may turn into a strength in 2020. If Gurriel Jr. can correct his issues with balls hit to his left, he can become an average outfielder in terms of defense. Based on 2019’s OAA, if a team has a group of left fielders that are collectively average, that would place the team in the Top 10 in terms of left field OAA.

Center field

Randal Grichuk produced a 4 OAA in less than 500 innings in 2019. If he can repeat his 2019 center field performance level in 2020, with the additional innings from being the primary center fielder, Grichuk should be able to meet the average OAA threshold for center fielders.

Right field

If Hernandez can be an average outfielder in right field, then the Blue Jays would be on their way to average defense from the right field position. He is more of a question mark than Gurriel Jr. or Grichuk because of his position change. However, he has the athletic tools that would suggest that he can meet that challenge.

The last word

In 2019, the Blue Jays pitchers neither helped nor hindered their teammates in the outfield. The below-average Outs Above Average for the outfield group was due to their own performance. On the bright side, if Gurriel Jr. and Grichuk can log more innings in left field and center field (respectively) in 2020 compared to 2019, it is possible that the defense from those two positions can improve for the Blue Jays. The other issue is whether Hernandez can thrive in right field. All those questions will be answered in 2020.