Blue Jays: Calculating the Probability of a Postseason Appearance

In 2020, the Blue Jays will begin their ascent up the standings.  Over this year and next, the Blue Jays will average 86 wins.  Furthermore, the Jays have a 68% chance of making the postseason within the next two years.

When Alex Anthopolous inherited the team, the Jays farm system was in disarray. They had talent on the roster, but just not enough to push them to the post-season in AA’s early years with the team.  During his tenure, AA built up the prospect pool, developed a top-5 farm system, and made a flurry of trades to bring the Jays back to the postseason in 2015. The excitement in the city was palpable.  AA utilized his prospect capital to acquire the talent necessary to create a window of opportunity. That window predictably shut at the end of 2016.  Anyone following closely knew tough times were ahead.

After the 2015 trade deadline, the Jays farm system was ranked 26th by Bleacher Report. When new management took over, Shapiro and Co. had a stated goal of the need to increase depth in the minors. In my previous 5-part series which examined the great Jays teams from 1983 to 1993, I looked at how those great teams back then were built and one thing was abundantly clear: The Jays always had a top-five farm system, and they were perennial contenders.

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Last year the Jays farm system was ranked 3rd in the league by Baseball America, and at the beginning of this season, it was ranked 6th (even with the graduation of some of their top prospects Guerrero Jr., Bichette & Biggio).  This year the Jays had nine players considered for the top 150 prospects by Baseball America. Prospectslive.com had five Jays listed in the top 100. There are numerous young players in this organization that because of their young age, do not rank high yet, but have tremendous potential. The future of the organization is certainly right.

How do these rankings actually relate to predictable wins? Simple.  I looked at the baseball farm system rankings from 2007 to 2016 and then compiled the records of those teams ranked in the top five from 2009-2019.  10 years of data.  Specifically, I looked at the records of those teams two and three years after the rankings over that 10 year period, then averaged the win totals of all top ranked teams two and three years after the rankings.  Then I did the same for the bottom five ranked teams.  The rankings used were Baseball America and Bleacher Report (when Baseball America rankings were unavailable).  Doing this was a royal pain in the ass, took much longer than I thought, but the results were fascinating.

Those teams with a top five farm system ranking averaged 86 wins in years two and three after said rankings.  Those with a Top 5 farm system had a 68% probability of going to the postseason within two or three years after having their system ranked in the Top 5. Over the 10 year stretch from 2009 to 2019 teams with a top-five farm system two or three years prior won the World Series in seven of those 10 years.  Conversely, teams with a bottom five ranked farm system had an average win total two and three years following said rankings of 75, went to the postseason only 18% of the time, and never once won the World Series.

Take 2015 for example. The Jays met and beat Texas three games to two in the post season, and then lost to KC in six.  KC went on to win the World Series.  Three years prior, all three of those teams had their farm systems ranked in the Top 5.

The Jays are on the right track.  Rebuilding a farm system necessary to create a sustainable winner at the MLB level takes time.  AA inherited a brutal farm system, took three years to rebuild it, then got the Jays to the post season in 2015.  This predictably happened within three years of attaining a top-five farm system ranking.  Shapiro and Co. inherited an equally bad farm system, rebuilt it within three years, and now predictably will have success, sooner then many think.  The numbers don’t lie.  We should be excited.

Shapiro and Atkins are continuing to stockpile young talent, and I expect to see a large jump in the rankings again next year, even with the eventual graduation of Nate Pearson. There are so many young prospects just outside the top 100 who will surely rise in the rankings, and the Jays have the number five pick in this year’s draft.  The future is bright.  Give this time to play out.  Your patience will be rewarded.