Blue Jays: Time to flex some financial muscle to fill out the bullpen

Jeurys Familia

The New York Mets appear to be moving towards contending in 2020 and losing the anchor of Jeurys Familia‘s contract would definitely help to reallocate those resources. First, let’s take a look at the contract status.

Contract: Familia signed a 3 year, 30 million contract with the Mets which covered the years of 2019-2021. Sportrac.com has the breakdown of the contract as 6 million in 2019 and 11 million in each of 2020 and 2021. There is a deferred 2 million payment in 2022. So essentially there is still 24 million owed to Familia over the next 3 seasons (which he is a free agent in 2022).
So just how far underwater is this contract? Let’s just say pretty deep. When you consider that bullpen pitchers like Zack Britton (1.91 ERA, 61.1 innings) earns 13 million and Adam Ottavino (1.90 ERA, 61.1 innings) takes home 9 million then 11 million/ season for Familia to pitch 60 innings with a 5.70 era is high.

Analysis: In 2019 Familia was a victim of the free pass and the home run, typically a bad combination. Familia allowed 42 bb over 60 innings for a 6.30/9 avg and 7 homers which were a career worse. If Familia could find his control and get back closer to his career averages he could make for a nice arm in the Blue Jay’s bullpen.

Trade: To the Blue Jay’s – RHRP Jeurys Familia, 1B/DH Dominic Smith, RHP Franklyn Kilome
To the Mets – IF Logan Warmoth

Ian Kennedy

The Kansas City Royals are in the midst of there own rebuild and currently have a starter turned closer eating 25% of their payroll. Is this a contract that the Royals would be willing to get off the books? Let’s examine the contract.

Contract: Ian Kennedy was signed to a 5 year 70 million contract by the Royals in 2016. I think we can all agree that Kennedy was signed as a starter but after a couple of down seasons in 2017 and 2018 Kennedy was moved to the bullpen. In 2019 Kennedy pitched 63.1 innings amassing 73 SO, and 30 saves to the tune of a 3.41 era.
Sportrac.com has Kennedy set to earn 16.5 million in the last year of his 5 year contract. Kennedy is set to become a free agent in 2021. Kennedy is set to earn similar salaries to some of MLB’s elite closers. Kenley Jansen 18 million, Aroldis Chapman 17.2 million, Craig Kimbrell 16 million, and Mark Melancon 19 million. NOTE some of these closers may not have produced elite results in 2019 but their contracts have paid them as elite closers.

Analysis: Kennedy had a productive year in 2019 but likely fits better as a set-up man rather than an elite closer. Most teams would consider a 16.5 million dollar set-up BP arm an extreme luxury. However, could the Jays find value having the ability to shorten games with a Kennedy and Giles pitching the 8th and 9th. Kennedy also doesn’t have a long track record as a BP arm and his 2020 results could be vastly different but is he worth a gamble?

Trade: Blue Jays get RHRP Ian Kennedy, OF Khalil Lee
Royals get RHP Jacob Waguespack

Tyler Chatwood

The Chicago Cubs have had a fairly quiet offseason so far except for a handful of minor league signings. There have been rumors that the Cubs want to reduce payroll even having some suggestions that their All-Star players like Kris Bryant or Willson Contreras could be on the trade block. Could the Jays find value picking up the last year of Tyler Chatwood‘s deal?

Contract: Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year contract with the Chicago Cubs for 38 million which covers the 2018-2020 seasons. Chatwood is another pitcher that was likely signed as a starter but has not been able to fill that role with any consistency. In 2019 Chatwood was used in a swingman role making 5 starts but working predominantly out of the bullpen. Chatwood has one remaining year on his contract for 13 million which I would say is pretty high for a swingman/ middle reliever.

Analysis: Chatwood had a terrible time in 2018 being able to limit walks. He managed just an 8.25 BB/9 which surely led to his removal from the Cubs starting staff and his eventual role in the BP. In 2019 Chatwood appears to have corrected his control issues and reduced his walk rate by nearly half to 4.34 BB/9. I’m sure that Chatwood could be a good fit in the Blue Jays bullpen but 13 million for a swingman is a lot.

Trade: Blue Jays get RHRP Tyler Chatwood, OF Cole Roederer, RHP Cory Abbott
Cubs get OF Anthony Alford

Jake McGee

The Colorado Rockies look to be at a crossroads. They have some large position player contracts in Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon as well as an expensive bullpen that just hasn’t worked out as expected. They were a playoff team as recently as 2018 but are coming off a lackluster 2019 record of 71-91 and 35 games back of the Dodgers for the NL West Division. With payroll near an all-time high are the Rockies heading for a retool/ rebuild? Would the Jays be wise to check in on southpaw Jake McGee?

Contract: Jake McGee signed a 3 year 27 million dollar contract with the Colorado Rockies for 2018-2020. The contract also comes with a vesting option for 2021 for an additional 9 million and there is a 1 million trade assignment bonus which would obviously be triggered if McGee is traded. So the Jays would basically be into the contract for 9.5 million for 2020, 1 million for the trade bonus and possibly (but not overly likely) another 9 million for 2021. So basically, in a nutshell, 10.5 million for a lefty reliever with high leverage experience.

Analysis: Many avid Blue Jays fans will remember McGee from his time in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Ray’s. McGee was coming off of 2 quality seasons with the Ray’s before being traded to the Rockies for the 2016 season. McGee’s time in Colorado hasn’t really been what the Rockies were dreaming on. I’m going to suggest that McGee could provide a great deal of value to the Jays BP.

If you look closer at McGee’s home and away splits you can see some alarming trends. Let’s just say McGee should never be pitching at Coor’s Field. For the 4 seasons that McGee has pitched in Colorado, he has managed to post a home ERA of 6.38, 4.73, 7.56 and 5.95. That is compared to his away ERA of 2.91, 2.64, 5.47, and 2.91.

McGee has been utilized fairly equally at about 95 innings each (home vs away) over those 4 seasons. If we look even further back to McGee’s time in Tampa we don’t see the drastic home vs away discrepancy. McGee could be the lefty reliever that the Blue Jays bullpen needs.

Trade: Blue Jays get LHRP Jake McGee, RHP Riley Pint, OF Sam Hilliard
Rockies get C Hagen Danner