Blue Jays: Who will be the team’s fifth starting pitcher?

Trent Thornton

In my mind, the clubhouse leader to round out the rotation has to be Trent Thornton, who was the Blue Jays’ most reliable starter last season. He’ll have to perform well during Spring Training for that to matter, but I felt like the 26-year-old took some significant steps last year, especially later in the season.

His overall stats don’t look that great, as he finished the year going 6-9 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.401 WHIP over 29 starts (32 appearances), good for 1.8 bWAR. His 154.1 innings in 2019 were badly needed, and the Blue Jays didn’t really have the luxury of sending him back to Triple-A when he was struggling during a mid-season stretch.

It was the last month or so that really left me encouraged by Thornton’s potential, and what leads me to believe that he’ll have the leg up to join the four veterans on Opening Day. The right-hander made five appearances over 24.2 innings in September and pitched to a 2.19 ERA over the month. His opponents had an OPS of just .471 over those last 99 plate appearances, and it looked like Thornton had things under control at all times. In fact, if you erased his clunker against the Rays on August 6th when he allowed six earned runs over 3.2 innings, he was pretty solid in August too.

Since the 2019 campaign was just his rookie season, Thornton does have minor league options remaining, and because of that there’s a chance that he starts the year in Buffalo. It was just last week that I wrote about how I believe he should be a lock for the rotation next season, and even with the new additions, I still believe that to be the case. If the Blue Jays take the 2019 season into consideration at all, chances are Thornton should get the first crack at the job.

Ryan Borucki

When the 2019 season began, I really thought the Blue Jays were going to have to lean heavily on Ryan Borucki. Unfortunately, he couldn’t get healthy enough to stay on the mound and that just wasn’t an option.

What should have been a sophomore season to build on for the 25-year-old turned into a frustrating year spent mostly on the Injured List. Borucki made just two starts at the MLB level last season around some elbow issues, and only four other MiLB appearances as well.

What made it particularly disappointing was that the southpaw had looked so good as a rookie in 2018. Over 17 starts, he finished with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.321 WHIP, showing the poise of a far more experienced hurler. The hope was that he would join Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez last season to form a solid top-three, but obviously that didn’t work out.

Depending on who you ask, there are several writers that believe Borucki could be the guy to win the fifth starter’s job this coming spring. He’ll have to prove that he’s healthy of course, but all reports indicate that he should be all clear by the time things ramp up in February, and hopefully he can avoid the IL in 2020.

If you ask me, the Blue Jays bringing in Ryu and Roark should all but cement his place in Buffalo to start the year. After a mostly lost season in 2019, I’d rather see him build up confidence and arm strength in Triple-A, and he still has minor league options the team can use. If he’s outperforming the competition at that level and staying healthy, perhaps you re-evaluate, but to start the year I think it’s more than fair that he has to prove he’s ready for the highest level again.

Suddenly the Blue Jays aren’t going to be in a position of trying simply to fill five rotation spots, and perhaps ask too much of their young pitchers. For a guy like Borucki, that should go a long way toward keeping him healthy, and hopefully getting the most of out him at the big league level. If he can get back to the pitcher we saw in 2018, the Blue Jays have a real asset in their rotation.

Shun Yamaguchi

The one free agent addition to the pitching staff I haven’t mentioned yet was the signing of Shun Yamaguchi, who joins the Blue Jays from the Japanese professional leagues. He signed a reported two-year, six million dollar deal, and has been a successful starter in Japan for several years now.

The 32-year-old made 26 starts last season, pitching to a record of 15-4, a 2.91 ERA, and a 1.159 WHIP across 170 innings for the Yomiuri Giants. He’s been a starting pitcher since 2014, however Yamaguchi began his professional career as a reliever, and we don’t know for sure how the Blue Jays plan to use him once he arrives in North America.

Before they signed Ryu, I expected that Yamaguchi would have a real chance to earn a rotation spot. I imagine they’ll still stretch him out this Spring and see how his repertoire looks in the role, but he’s going to have some solid competition for that fifth starter’s role.

There is plenty of off-season left, so we don’t know what the bullpen will look like by the time February rolls around, but as of now there is a pretty clear need in that area as well. The focus has been on the rotation throughout the winter, but now that Ryu, Roark, and Anderson have joined the fold, one could argue that Yamaguchi’s talents are needed in the bullpen. That said, if Yamaguchi can be an effective MLB starter and do it for just three million per season, I’m sure the Blue Jays would be thrilled to find other arms to add to the bullpen.

I suspect that Yamaguchi will have to really perform well during Grapefruit League play in order to earn a rotation job, but we’ll see what happens when the time comes. His ability to pitch multiple innings could be useful as a long-man in the bullpen as well, and he could stay stretched out that way in case the rotation ran into injury problems. My guess is that’s the role he’ll fall into to begin the year, but I really haven’t seen a lot of him yet, and I’d be happy if he proved me wrong.

Anthony Kay

My dark horse candidate to win the job would have to be Anthony Kay, even if he’s likely 7th or 8th on the depth chart at the moment.

Kay arrived in Toronto last July in the trade for Marcus Stroman, with the Blue Jays also getting Simeon Woods Richardson in the exchange. The left-hander was dominant over 12 starts in Double-A and had mixed results at the next level both in Syracuse before the trade, and in Buffalo after it. However, he performed better than his numbers showed, which eventually led to a MLB promotion and his big league debut.

The southpaw threw 14 innings over three appearances and looked pretty good despite posting a 5.79 ERA. He pitched 5.2 innings of four-hit baseball against the Rays in his debut, allowing just two earned runs and striking out eight. He was knocked around by the Yankees in his second appearance when he gave up five runs over 4.1, and then finished strong with four innings against the Orioles on September 19th, earning his first MLB win.

According to comments from a National League scout on www.mlb.com, Kay’s ceiling could be as high as a top of the rotation starter. In fact, the comment that was quoted (granted, prior to the Blue Jays signing Roark and Ryu) was, “He’s (Toronto’s) best starter”, which is certainly an encouraging thing to read about the 24-year-old.

Last season was Kay’s first one back from Tommy John surgery, and as he continues to work on getting back all of his power and control, there’s a good chance that the Marcus Stroman trade is going to look even better than it already does for the Blue Jays. As for Kay, I suspect he’ll likely start the year in Triple-A, but don’t be surprised if he forces his way to the big leagues at the first sign of trouble.

Jacob Waguespack, T.J. Zeuch

I included these two because they performed well enough last season to warrant consideration, even if I think they’ll be on the outside looking in.

As far as I’m concerned, the Blue Jays have already received their value back on Jacob Waguespack when you consider he was acquired from the Phillies for two months of Aaron Loup. He earned 1.0 bWAR last year while making 13 starts (16 appearances), and posted a 4.38 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP over 78 innings. To call him a pleasant surprise would be putting it lightly.

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Do I think he can do it again? Not particularly, although I’m a big fan of the him being a part of the starting pitching depth chart, especially if he’s this far down. He’s shown that he can give the Blue Jays some solid innings, and he wasn’t intimidated when pitching against some of the best teams in baseball last year, having his highlight-performance against the Dodgers in August. That said, I feel like he’s destined to start the year in Buffalo, regardless of how well he shows during Spring Training.

I’m afraid the same likely goes for T.J. Zeuch, who was also fairly solid during a late-season audition in 2019. He made three starts and two more relief appearances, pitching to a 4.76 ERA and a 1.456 WHIP over 22.2 innings. Although he proved himself capable, I’m guessing he’s roughly 10th on the depth chart going into 2020. That likely means he’ll start the year in Buffalo as well, but if history is any indication, the Blue Jays will need him at some point next season.

As we’ve already discussed, it’s a lot nicer place to be for the Blue Jays to have 10 legitimate starting options, and the off-season isn’t even over yet. According to TSN’s Scott Mitchell, there’s even a chance that trading for David Price could even remain on the table, although that seems unlikely now that Ryu is coming to Toronto.

Either way though, Charlie Montoyo will have a lot of reliable options to turn to next season, and with an talented and exciting young offence, the Blue Jays could surprise some people in 2020. Some folks will tell you that a baseball team will only go as far as the pitching staff will carry them, and thankfully the Blue Jays finally have a MLB-worthy group.