Blue Jays: Five paths to getting a top of the rotation starting pitcher

The Blue Jays have added to their starting pitcher’s group already, but they’re still missing a top-of-the-rotation arm. There are a few ways to make it happen.

For as much as we’ve heard about the need for the Blue Jays to add starting pitching this off-season, the front office has addressed the issue fairly directly. First they traded for Chase Anderson from the Brewers, then they tendered a contract to Matt Shoemaker, and earlier this week they signed Tanner Roark to a two-year, 24 million dollar pact.

Despite all of that work overhauling the rotation, the job won’t feel like it’s done until there’s one more arm that can lead the revamped group, as that’s what the Blue Jays really need.

Ideally, Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be able to add a piece to the puzzle for the long-term, as well as someone who can make an immediate impact. Pitchers like that don’t grow on trees, but with the Blue Jays having the enviable situation of a flexible payroll, an emerging young core already in the big leagues, and more MiLB talent throughout the organization, there are a few ways they could add that coveted starting pitcher.

Atkins and Mark Shapiro have spoken throughout the winter about having a lot of flexibility to try and build this roster, and it’ll be interesting to see how they go about taking care of the rest of their off-season shopping list. They likely still need to add someone to the first base/DH picture, possibly a centre fielder, and at least a few arms to the bullpen picture as well.

For now though, let’s focus on the starting rotation and a few different paths they could take to strengthen the group.

Free Agency is still an option

Despite the fact that top-of-the-market arms like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and Zack Wheeler have all found new homes, there is still value to be found on the free agent market.

If the Blue Jays are looking to add a starter that could lead the rest of their assembled group, they’re arguably looking at three remaining options. The first would be Hyun-Jin Ryu, and all signs point to the Blue Jays being in pursuit of the Korean southpaw. That said, now that both Los Angeles teams missed out on Cole and Strasburg, chances are the Ryu market is going to heat up a bit before he signs anywhere.

If Ryu isn’t an option, the Blue Jays could make a bid on two other left-handers in Madison Bumgarner and/or Dallas Keuchel. The former has been garnering heavy interest around the league and there haven’t really been any reports linking him to the Blue Jays at all, despite the statements from the front office that they’ve checked in with pretty much any available starter. That’s likely a sign that Bumgarner is either going to return to San Francisco, or sign with a more immediate contender.

Keuchel could be a different case though, and he’s one starter I’ve had my eye on since free agency began. He profiles as a soft-tossing southpaw, and in today’s MLB game that’s not really what most teams are looking for. That said, I feel like Keuchel could be had for a reasonable contract, at least relative to the 35-36 million dollar deals being thrown around, and he has a solid pedigree. He also strikes me as someone whose skills shouldn’t erode all that much as he ages.

Beyond those three, it’s debatable if there is anyone else that is a slam-dunk to have a better season than what the Blue Jays already have. There are solid gambles to be had for certain, but I feel like the Blue Jays don’t really need any more mid to back-end starters at this point. If they’re not going to add an obvious rotation topper from free agency, then perhaps they should turn to another avenue.

Make a trade with a rebuilding team

There aren’t a lot of examples that this path could be used, but bear with me for a moment, because the market might have shifted in a big way last week.

After learning that the Colorado Rockies are apparently open to the idea of trading Nolan Arenado, just one year after signing him to an eight-year, 260 million dollar extension, one has to think they’d be open to trading just about anyone, no?

They don’t always get the credit they may deserve because they pitch in the hitter’s haven that is Coors Field, but the Rockies actually have some decent arms these days. And if they’re willing to entertain the idea of trading Arenado, would they do the same with German Marquez? Because if so, the Blue Jays should be all over it. Despite posting a 4.74 ERA across 28 starts and 174.1 innings last season, Marquez’s peripherals look at a lot better, and there’s a lot of potential behind his ability to strike out more than a batter an inning, and his 1.20 WHIP.

Atkins could also call some old friends in the Cleveland Indians’ front office and see if they’re willing to move any of their talented starters. There’s a good chance that Cleveland will move on from Francisco Lindor, and if that’s the case, there’s really no reason for them to hang on to a guy like Corey Kluber. For the right price (a king’s ransom), perhaps they’d consider guys like Shane Bieber or Mike Clevinger, although that doesn’t feel very likely, and would probably price the Blue Jays out of talks.

It would require the Blue Jays to cough up some prospect capital if they went this route, but for the right arm, it could certainly be worth exploring. It’s a strange thing when potential contenders decide to rebuild, as Cleveland is reportedly considering, but the Blue Jays could have an opportunity to take advantage.

Make a trade with a contender

This option is a little more tricky, but I believe it could still happen. That said, the best match-up I saw at the beginning of the off-season was with Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta Braves. However, since then the Braves have filled their needs at catcher and at closer, so perhaps they won’t be interested in the likes of Ken Giles of Reese McGuire/Danny Jansen after all.

I wouldn’t completely rule the Braves out as a trade partner, especially not with the plethora of talented pitching prospects they have in their stables, but there could be other teams to discuss this with as well. In a different form are other teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, who we’ve already discussed as teams that are looking to shed salary.

I wonder if there isn’t the opportunity to call the Mets back again, especially after they signed both Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to one-year deals. Since they already have four starters, it seems likely that they’ve trade one before the season begins. That’s not going to be Jacob deGrom, and it would be very surprising if they turned around and traded Marcus Stroman less than half of a year after acquiring him (and the Blue Jays aren’t a match there for this discussion). I’d be surprised to see them trade Noah Syndergaard, but then again, if I’m Ross Atkins I’d certainly make a phone call to inquire. As for Steven Matz, I’m not sure he’s significantly better than what they already have, although he could arguably top the Blue Jays’ current group.

The majority of the contenders are going to be looking to acquire more starting pitcher rather than trading it away, but in this more responsible era of spending in baseball, there could be more opportunities than what seems obvious. A month ago I wouldn’t have dreamed that a guy like Nolan Arenado would be available on the trade market, but strangers things have happened. For the Blue Jays, that means making sure they leave no stone left unturned.

Stand pat and be patient

I left this option for last, mostly because it’s not really a path to adding a top of the rotation arm. At least not one that they don’t already have.

That said, the Blue Jays should have at least one starter arriving at the highest level some time in 2020 that’s better than anyone they have. Nate Pearson has the potential to be a true ace for the Blue Jays, but with that said, they’re going to bring his development along at a slow and appropriate pace. After breaking his arm on a come-backer in the first starter of his first full professional season in 2018, he only has 123.1 pro innings under his belt.

It seems like an inevitability that the big right-hander lands in the big leagues sometime in 2020, with my guess being that it happens shortly after the All-Star break. It’ll give the coaching and training staff a chance to control his workload early in the year, and also gives him a chance to prove that he’s ready to pass Triple-A. He did look pretty well past it in a short sample size last year though, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts.

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In a perfect world the Blue Jays would be able to add someone to lead their rotation in 2020, and that same pitcher could pair with Pearson at the top of the group when this team is truly ready to contend. Atkins needs to be doing whatever is necessary to find that high-end arm before Opening Day, but if they can’t get it done, that could create an important opportunity.

As things stand, it’s likely that Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, and Anthony Kay will be battling for the fifth spot in the rotation, assuming the Blue Jays bring in one more starter. I might be bias (I definitely am), but I believe in the potential of all three of those pitchers to be solid MLB starters. At least one of them is going to have to start their season in Buffalo as things stand now, and more likely two of them will begin the campaign in Triple-A. Ideally they would serve as depth to a stronger group, but if they’re pressed into action in 2020 then it shouldn’t be the end of the world either. Who knows, it might even work out for the best in the long run.

That said, I’m not trying to talk myself or anyone else in to settling for the work that’s already been done. The Blue Jays could really use one more starting pitcher to round out their group for next season, and it needs to be someone who is better than anyone they already have. That’ll be important in 2020, but even more so in 2021 and beyond as this team starts shifting into more of a contender’s mindset.

If the front office wants their fan base, and more importantly, their young core to start thinking like a winner, adding another starter should be extremely important. Fortunately, there are several ways they can get it done, if they want they choose.