Blue Jays: Assessing the AL East after the 2019 campaign

Baltimore Orioles (54-108)

Let’s start with the Orioles, mostly because I want to give all of you Blue Jay fans out there as much reason for optimism as possible. As I said on Twitter a few times throughout 2019, “hey, at least we’re not the Orioles”.

The Blue Jays had a rough 2019 campaign, but the Orioles bested them by a long shot in pursuit of the top of next June’s draft. They finished with a record of 54-108, which means only the Detroit Tigers and their 47-114 record will pick ahead of them next June. That part is encouraging, and I’m a believer in looking for the silver lining in any situation.

Beyond that? Well, Jonathan Villar had a great comeback season in Baltimore, and Trey Mancini continued to be one of the more under-rated hitters in the American League. Hanser Alberto was surprising decent as well, but I’m already running out of positives to talk about.

The pitching staff was a total disaster once again, a problem that’s long existed for the Orioles. Dylan Bundy finally made 30 starts in a season, but his 4.79 ERA and 1.35 WHIP could use some serious improvement. John Means was really the only starter who pitched well enough to warrant saying anything positive, as he surprised with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in 27 starts.

The plus side is that Baltimore’s farm system is finally improving, and is generally considered to around the middle of the pack. Adding Adley Rutschman with last year’s top pick in the draft will help down the road, but the Blue Jays are widely considered to be ahead of their rebuilding efforts at this point.

And not to rub dirt in their faces, but Chris Davis will still mark a little more than 21 million per season for another three years, with 42 million more in deferred payments. As bad as he’s been, he’s just one of the many reasons the Orioles are going to take a while before they’re ready to compete again.

Boston Red Sox (84-78)

I figured I’d write these in order of their standings in 2019, so that means the Boston Red Sox are up next.

As I previously mentioned, the 2019 season was a major disappointment in Bean town, and I don’t think you’d find anyone who would argue with me on that statement. There were major individual wins like the progression of Rafael Devers into a star, further improvement from Xander Bogaerts, and steady production from J.D. Martinez, but there were a lot of disappointments.

Chief among them was from the pitching staff, which was supposed to be lead by the freshly extended Chris Sale. Instead, the southpaw bounced on and off of the Injured List and finished the year with a disappointing 4.40 ERA and a 1.086 WHIP in 25 starts and 147.1 innings. It wasn’t horrific, but it was far from the ace-level performance that the Red Sox had grown accustomed to.

Rick Porcello was downright bad, David Price was okay but only threw 107.1 innings, and Nathan Eovaldi couldn’t stay on the mound for long. Thankfully (for them) Eduardo Rodriguez took a major step forward, but otherwise the entire pitching staff was a disappointment.

The Red Sox still have a very solid core in place right now, but they’re faced with a big decision when it comes to Mookie Betts‘ impending free agency (he’ll hit the market after the 2020 season). There have been rumours that they’ll consider trading him this winter for the right price, and that’s mostly because fitting him into their payroll with a major pay raise is going to be nearly impossible, at least if they want to avoid paying the luxury tax.

Throw in a weak farm system, a front office that will be manned by a new group, and some questions about Betts and even the future of J.D. Martinez (who has an opt-out), and things are very much up in the air at the moment. There’s little doubt that they’ll be competitive in 2020, especially because a core built around guys like Bogaerts, Devers, and more is still plenty dangerous, but whomever is next in line in the front office is going to have a tough job ahead of them.

You can poke all kinds of holes in the long-term outlook for the Blue Jays, but in my biased opinion, I prefer theirs to what the Red Sox are dealing with, at least as of today.

Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)

Despite the fact that they’re perpetually dealing with an undersized payroll and an indifferent fanbase, the Tampa Bay Rays just keep finding a way to put together a competitive ball club.

At times it seems like that front office can do no wrong, and 2019 was another example. Trade away Chris Archer? No problem, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow both look like future All-Stars, and it happened right away. Need a catcher? Pick up Travis d’Arnaud and watch him finally blossom into the type of big leaguer the Blue Jays and Mets thought he would be. Even their smaller financial splurge of signing Charlie Morton worked out beautifully.

The Rays have continued their recent trend of building around cost-controlled players, and their current roster is no exception. They’re also in possession of one of the best farm systems in baseball, so they’re not going to go anywhere any time soon. Well, except maybe away from Tampa, but that’s a topic for another day.

All that said, if there’s one thing we know about the Rays it’s that they’ve always been limited when it comes to resources. They have an exceptional coaching staff, and one of the better scouting and development systems around, but they really have to rely on those variables in order to make things work. There’s going to come a time, for example, that Blake Snell will be too expensive for them, and they’ll have to move on. That’s just the way they operate.

Because they’ve had so many trades work out so successfully they’ve managed to make things work, but I feel like the resource-rich Blue Jays should be able to surpass them in a season or two. They have their own enviable core starting to come into place in a hurry, and when they are ready to supplement the roster then the payroll should be there, which is something Tampa’s front office doesn’t enjoy very often. That’s an advantage that SHOULD eventually make a difference, and hopefully that’ll be the case in another year or two from now.

New York Yankees (103-59

Last but not least, the AL East division rival that came the closest to winning a championship this season. The New York Yankees had a very impressive campaign, finishing with a record of 103-59 despite missing a record number of games to the IL, including for many of their most significant stars. Luis Severino missed most of the season, Giancarlo Stanton hardly factored at all, and the list goes on and on.

More from Jays Journal

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

Despite all of that, the Bronx Bombers were just two wins away from making the World Series, and there’s every reason to believe that they’ll be in the mix again in 2020 and beyond. Their offence is as good as anyone in baseball when everyone is healthy, and guys like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, Stanton, and more will be around for several more years to come.

It’s the pitching staff that could be a little bit vulnerable going forward, but that could change in a hurry this off-season. The Yankees are among the expected suitors for Gerrit Cole, and they’ll still return a starting group that features Severino, James Paxton, another season of Masahiro Tanaka, and eventually Domingo German. Their bullpen will be a strength even if Aroldis Chapman opts out of his current deal, which seems pretty unlikely anyway.

You can point to any one of the foundational pieces the Yankees currently have in place as the strength of this team, but I would argue that their greatest asset is in the front office in Brian Cashman. The long-time GM has done a masterful job of rebuilding the Yankees, balancing a young core with future payroll space, making them a serious contender right now as we saw in 2019, and one that should be sustainable for several years.

I really do believe that the Blue Jays are going to contend for a division title within a few seasons, but I believe that road will still go through the Yankees when they’re ready for that step. It’s a familiar tale in the AL East, and one that I don’t anticipate will change any time soon.