Blue Jays: Who is the ‘Rookie of the Year’ on this team?

The Blue Jays have had a ton of rookies on their roster this year, but the question is: Who has had the best performance in 2019?

When the 2019 season started, I’ll admit that like many of you, I predicted that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would win the American League Rookie of the Year award. Unless something drastic changes over the last 17 games of the season, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

That doesn’t mean that Vlad Jr. has had a bad season, or that there haven’t been other impressive rookies in Toronto this season. In fact, if you’ve been paying attention at all you know that it’s quite the opposite, with half of the team being made up of first-year players at times throughout the season.

I thought it would be fun to take a look at the performance of the top five rookies on the Blue Jays’ roster this season (rankings based on my opinion) and figure out who may have been the most impressive of the lot. There are plenty to choose from, and spoiler alert, the list doesn’t include players that would certainly qualify in the top five rookies on another club. That includes guys like Billy McKinney, Rowdy Tellez, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr, who surpassed the rookie eligibility last season after being called up.

Most Blue Jay fans can likely predict most or all of the players on my list, but I’m curious to see how many agree with the way I’ve ordered them in my rankings. Let the debate begin.

5- Cavan Biggio

Cavan Biggio has had an impressive stint with the Blue Jays so far in 2019, even if it’s been overshadowed by the performance of his fellow rookie teammates.

Biggio is currently slashing .207/.342/.376 with 12 home runs, 13 doubles, 35 RBI, and 10 stolen bases in 83 games played. While his batting average leaves a little something to be desired, Biggio has displayed a mature eye at the plate, showing the ability to reach base by taking a walk at an above-average clip.

The power and speed combination is a nice quality to have, as is his ability to move around the diamond. The 24-year-old has seen time at second base (his most frequent spot), third, first, and in the outfield corners. It’s looking like he’ll be the second baseman of the future, at least for the time being, but don’t rule out the possibility of Biggio shifting around as some of the other elite minor league talent arrives.

Biggio has rated out at 1.5 bWAR and 1.0 fWAR, which are more than acceptable numbers for a rookie second baseman. He’s also had the opportunity to get a lot of regular playing time, and that experience will be valuable for the Houston, Texas native.

As good as Biggio has been this year, I can’t rank him any higher than #5 on my list. That’s less of a criticism of his performance and more a result of there being plenty of talented rookies in Toronto this season.

4- Trent Thornton

If there’s a player on my list that surprises you, it might be Trent Thornton. His presence really shouldn’t surprise you that much if you’ve been watching throughout the year, even if he’s had a very up and down campaign. Last night’s performance of five no-hit, shutout innings was an opportunity see his talent on display.

That said, I won’t sugarcoat it, because the numbers really aren’t that great. Thornton entered last night’s outing with a 4-9 record with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.501 WHIP over 28 starts. However, that last number has been huge for the Blue Jays, as have the 139.1 innings he’s given Charlie Montoyo throughout the 2019 campaign. You can file this statement under “things I never thought I’d say”, but Thornton has been the Blue Jays’ most reliable starting pitcher from start to finish this season.

Baseball reference has rated his performance thus far at 0.9 bWAR, and Fangraphs is a little more kind, awarding him a rating of 1.4 fWAR. His 127 strikeouts have been helpful, and there have been times when he looked like he could step into a mid-rotation role right away. However, like most rookies, he’s also had some starts that made fans question whether or not he’ll stick at the highest level for the long term.

For the Blue Jays this season, I’m not sure where Montoyo would have been without the spin-rate specialist. Because of the injuries to guys like Clayton Richard, Ryan Borucki, Clay Buchholz, and Matt Shoemaker, and eventually the trades of Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, Thornton was given a consistent opportunity, and at the very least he went to battle every fifth day.

After a long debut season, I’m excited to see what Thornton can do in 2020 with a year of experience under his belt. His rookie season might not go down in the record books, but he definitely provided a lot of value for his team, and that won’t be forgotten any time soon.

3- Danny Jansen

The Blue Jays have been looking for a franchise catcher for what feels like forever, and I believe that Danny Jansen can and will be the one they’ve been looking for.

He entered last night’s game with a .204/.277/.359 slash line with 12 home runs, 12 doubles, and 42 RBI in 101 games. While that slash line isn’t exactly pretty, Jansen has shown some improvement at the plate throughout his first full big league season, which has been one that he’s had to focus on defence first. I’m confident that his offensive numbers will continue to improve next season.

Where he’s brought more value as a rookie has been on the defensive end, and that’s how he’s rated as a 1.0 bWAR player according to baseball reference, and 1.4 fWAR. He’s shown an ability to control the run game at an above-average clip, and has been a pretty solid pitcher framer. And when you consider that he’s had a revolving door of a pitching staff to work with, Jansen’s defensive efforts should be appreciated even more.

All that said, he will have to continue to improve in order to hold off Reese McGuire, as his fellow Blue Jay catcher has shown that he deserves to not only play in the big leagues, but also that he should be in the lineup at a fairly regularly clip. Having two good catchers to share duties in duties MLB isn’t a bad thing, especially because it’ll likely bring the best out in both of the young receivers.

It’s easy to get focused on some of the bigger names in Toronto when it comes to the next generation of this team, but Danny Jansen’s development is almost as important as anyone’s. Fortunately he’s moving in the right direction.

1- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

If you’re surprised to see Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s name at the end of this list, you either skipped ahead without reading the rest, or you really haven’t been following the Blue Jays at all this season.

The 20 year old came into the league with sky-high expectations, and while he hasn’t performed to the level that some folks thought he would, he’s still been incredible for a player at his stage of his career. He entered last night’s game with a slash line of .273/.348/.453 with 15 home runs, 24 doubles, and 61 RBI in 110 games played.

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According to baseball reference Guerrero’s efforts have been worth a bWAR rating of 2.2, while Fangraphs has him down at 0.7 fWAR. The reason for the difference is that fWAR leans more heavily on defensive value, and that’s the area that Guerrero needs the most work. His -11 DEF rating shows exactly what I’m talking about here.

Still, the young phenom has shown steady improvement on both sides of the diamond this year, and hasn’t backed down from the pressure that comes with being the top prospect in Blue Jays’ history. The difference in first performance from the first half to after the All-Star break (.304/.373/.503 in the second half) has been significant, showing that he’s learning and making adjustments, even against the best players in the world.

Perhaps the only reason we’re not recognizing Guerrero Jr’s efforts more is because of the influx of young talent both in Toronto, and across the rest of the big leagues. But make no mistake about it folks, Vlad Jr. has been very impressive as a 20 year old rookie, and is only going to get better as he fully grows and matures into his adult body, and continues to learn.

In a season when the Blue Jays had a lot of impressive rookie performances, I would have to give their “Rookie of the Year” award to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., even if some of you don’t agree with me.