Blue Jay: Where does the current roster stand in the long term plans?

Despite their 53-80 record this year, the Blue Jays’ rebuild is going pretty well so far, and there’s a nice core already starting to develop. The question is, who is considered to be in that “core” and where do the rest of the roster pieces fit long-term?

The first half of the 2019 season was pretty difficult as a Blue Jays’ fan, but I think most of us who stuck it out with this team are feeling a lot better about things lately.

That’s because of the arrival of a talented young core that is already producing at the highest level, and the future looks very bright in Toronto these days. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looked human for the first time in his professional career in the first half, but has been tearing the ball apart over the last month or so. Bo Bichette has broken records, and is leading the big leagues in hits since his debut. And they’re not the only two making an impact.

There’s a good chance that the Blue Jays might even have to speed up their rebuild a bit in order to keep up with the quickly thriving offensive talent, especially if this kind of production carries over into next year. Regardless, the front office has been looking at things through the lens of the big picture since last season, and the majority of their decisions are made with the long-term in mind.

With that said, there are a lot of players and positions on this team that are up in the air as far as the future is concerned, even if a few spots are all but cemented, like Bichette’s and Vlad Jr’s. For the rest of the team, how do they fit into the long-term plans in Toronto right now?

A lot can change as the Blue Jays continue their rebuild, but it’s worth having a look at how things stand right now, and what that might tell us about this upcoming winter, the 2020 season, and beyond.

Tier 1- The future core

As I mentioned in the opening, there are a few core pieces of this team that have already fallen into place. The exciting part is that the Blue Jays have a lot of these rookie-level players that can carry their weight already, and if they continue to develop as it looks like they will, then their lineup will be not only dangerous, but also very cost effective.

Guerrero Jr. and Bichette would be the dynamic duo that would lead this core, but I think there are at least 2-3 other pieces that should be viewed in nearly the same light. I don’t mean in terms of All-Star or maybe even MVP potential, but just in that they can be the type of players to stick in this lineup for the next five or more seasons.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would fit that description for me, especially now that he’s established himself in left field. His hitting rose to another level after the move to the outfield and the return from Buffalo to get his confidence back, and he’s proven to be a pretty good defensive asset as a corner outfielder as well, showing off a strong throwing arm and keeping baserunners honest. The Blue Jays also have him signed to a bargain contract covering the next four seasons at a total of just 16 million, which also includes an arbitration eligible season in 2024.

I would consider Cavan Biggio in a similar light, even if he’s struggled to produce at the plate lately. While it’s incredibly exciting to see the production from rookies like what Vlad Jr., Bichette, and even Gurriel Jr. have had in the early days of their career, that’s rarely the way things go for a rookie. Biggio has shown a lot of poise and maturity at the plate, defensive versatility, and strong leadership skills. He’s going to be a part of this core going forward, and you can count on improved numbers from him next season.

Lastly I would throw Danny Jansen into the “core five” for me right now, even if he’s got some company with the strong play of Reese McGuire as his catching partner. Jansen has overcome a difficult start to the season at the plate, and has given the Blue Jays above-average production as a hitter. Add that to his strong receiving skills and throwing ability as a catcher, and the rookie should be a part of this team for a long time.

Tier 2- Likely to be part of the rebuild

After the core five that described on the last page, there are several players who could arguably be considered as “locks” to be on the roster for the next few seasons. However, I view this group as a tick below the rest in terms of job security with the Blue Jays.

I’ll start with Randal Grichuk, and immediately acknowledge that the Blue Jays committed to him on a five-year extension before the 2019 season began. While I do expect that Grichuk will be around for the foreseeable future, his contract is a very tradable one, as he’s set to make 12 million in 2020 before dropping to an annual number of 9.33 million. If he turns his post All-Star break production into a full season thing then he’s a huge bargain, but I don’t feel like the Blue Jays are married to him, even with the extension.

As far as young talent, I would put guys like Rowdy Tellez, Trent Thornton, and Ryan Borucki in tier two, and allow me to explain why.

Tellez has shown the type of left-handed power that would balance nicely for the Blue Jays if he can stick at first base, but he needs to prove that he can provide consistent production at the highest level. With 1B/DH types becoming more readily available and affordable in recent seasons, Tellez is going to have to earn his spot on this team for the long haul.

As for guys like Thornton and Borucki, I believe the Blue Jays will have a place for them in the rotation in their rebuild. Borucki showed great promise in his 17 starts as a rookie last year, and it’s been a big disappointment that he hasn’t been able to get healthy this year. Hopefully a fresh start in 2020 will allow him to get back to the promise he showed in 2018. As for Thornton, he’s had an up and down season, but I feel like he’s shown enough to earn a rotation spot next year, and I believe he has a real chance stick around for at least a few seasons.

Tier 3- Getting a real shot to be a part of it

The Blue Jays have a lot of talented, but arguably flawed players that they’re still evaluating at this point, and that’s what we’ll have a look at in my third tier.

Teoscar Hernandez fits this description very well, as he’s shown enough potential to intrigue the Blue Jays, but hasn’t fully put things together in a way that would lock down a position for him in the long term. That said, he’s been surprisingly solid in centre field since he made his own return from Buffalo earlier this year, and the power production is still there. I feel like he was on the way out before his mid-season renaissance, and now he’ll likely get an opportunity to earn the starting centre field job in 2020.

Competing with Hernandez will be guys like Derek Fisher and Billy McKinney, who both present reasons to be optimistic about their potential, while also wondering if they’re going to fit in Toronto for the long term. As I talked about yesterday, Fisher will need to earn his spot with the team throughout the 2020 season because he’ll be out of minor league options, and that’s not the easiest scenario for a 4th outfielder in today’s game. McKinney could be stuck behind the others on the depth chart, but could still move up if he takes advantage of his opportunities.

I would also include a guy like Brandon Drury in this tier, even if I’ve all but written off his long-term inclusion with this team before. The thing that works well in Drury’s case is that he’s versatile defender who can play all over the diamond. He’s not really a shortstop or centre fielder, and he’s definitely not a catcher, but he can more than adequately cover the team elsewhere, and he’s also a streaky power hitter. It’s feasible to see him carving out a gig with this team for the long-term, but he’ll have to force his way on.

Speaking of people who are forcing their way into the picture, Jacob Waguespack has went from an afterthought to the most productive starter on the team this month. His performance, including seven shutout innings against the Dodgers, will earn him a long look next year, and will likely have the Blue Jays hang on to him on their 40 man roster at the very least.

I feel like there are a few bullpen pieces like Justin Shafer, or Jordan Romano that can and will stick in Toronto, but trying to predict a bullpen picture on a yearly basis is a fool’s game if you ask me. I’m gonna go ahead and leave that part of this equation alone for the most part.

Tier 4- The wild cards

I decided to split this up into five tiers, mostly because I think there’s a big difference between the two remaining groups. In Tier four, I’ll talk about a few guys that I don’t think the Blue Jays are counting on to be a part of their plans, but that have the potential to force the team’s hand.

Sean Reid-Foley is a great example of a pitcher with high-end talent that just can’t put things together, but I don’t think that will last for his entire career. Whether he needs one important adjustment to thrive as a starter, or eventually make a move to the bullpen, he has the makeup of someone who should thrive at the big league level. At this stage, I don’t know that the Blue Jays are counting on much from him though.

I would put Anthony Alford in this same category, and it’s a shame, because there was a time that I would have expected him to be in Tier 1. Unfortunately injuries have taken away a lot of opportunity from the talent prospect, but that doesn’t mean his career is over. Between trips to the IL this year he’s flashed the kind of talent that has made him a lot of Canadian fans, and if he can stay healthy then I wouldn’t be surprised to see him force his way to Toronto. He will have to surpass the aforementioned outfield depth though, and that won’t happen overnight.

As a third member of this tier, I think Reese McGuire fits, but for a different reason than the other two. McGuire has shown that he’s a capable big league catcher, and so far he’s worked well as a tandem with Danny Jansen. However, there’s a chance the Blue Jays may believe they can get more value by trading him to a catching-needy team. In the same breath, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Blue Jays stuck it out with the talented young duo, at least for the next season or two. As long as it’s working in distributing playing time, they’re a pretty good pair back there.