Blue Jays: How Marcus Stroman stacks up in the SP trade market

Tier 4- Tanner Roark & Robbie Ray

I decided to separate the other trade candidates into four different tiers, and at the lower end of things are a couple of National League starters.

Neither Tanner Roark or Robbie Ray will be a top-of-the-rotation option for playoff teams, but they could help at the back end, which can be very important in a tight playoff race.

Roark has quietly put together a nice season with the Cincinnati Reds, as he’s 5-6 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.373 WHIP, and 2.0 bWAR earned in 19 starts and 102 innings pitched. He doesn’t have the flashiest stuff, but he’s become one of the more dependable starters in baseball, throwing at least 180 innings in four out of his last five seasons. He’s also pretty affordable, as he’s on a one-year, 10 million dollar contract that expires at the end of the season.

Ray arguably has more potential, but he’s less of a sure thing because of some dicey health throughout his career. He’s been healthy this year in Arizona though, going 8-6 with a 3.92 ERA, a 1.299 WHIP, and 1.1 bWAR in 21 starts and 117 innings pitched. If the lefty is going to continue putting up those numbers then there will be plenty of interested suitors.

The Diamondbacks don’t have to trade him, as he’s also under team control for one more season, and is making just 6.05 million this year. However, for a team that is in a similar spot to the Blue Jays, they’ll probably maximize Ray’s value if they move him before July 31st.

It’s possible that a team that doesn’t want to spend on the highest end of the market could move quickly on these two, but more likely, the Reds and Diamondbacks could see how much the pitching-needy teams are willing to pay once those other options are off the board.

Tier 3- Zack Wheeler & Matt Boyd

The next rung up the ladder has a little more talent, but possibly more uncertainty depending on the target. I have put Zack Wheeler of the Mets and former Blue Jay Matt Boyd of the Detroit Tigers in “Tier 3”, and both could be viewed as a valuable addition this month.

Wheeler has mostly been seen as an arm with high-end talent throughout his career, but he’s struggled to stay healthy enough to harness his potential. He posted an ERA of 3.31 in 28 starts last season, but so far this year he’s 6-6 with a 4.69 ERA, a 1.277 WHIP, and 1.6 bWAR in 19 starts and 119 innings pitched.

The bigger problem for Wheeler at the Mets is that he’s currently on the sidelines dealing with some shoulder fatigue. He threw recently and reported that he felt good afterwards, but the Mets may not be able to get the return they’re looking for with his health up in the air.

As for Boyd, he’s quietly put together a great season in Detroit, and has some real sleeper value on this trade market. He’s 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA, a 1.133 WHIP, and 2.8 bWAR earned in 20 starts and 120 innings pitched. The most impressive number may be the 160 strikeouts he’s already accumulated, especially against just 24 walks.

The southpaw’s value is also increased by the fact that he’s making just 2.6 million this year, and has three seasons of arbitration eligibility left before he’ll be a free agent. That type of contract control will definitely add to his trade value.

On the other hand, Boyd is less of a sure thing than most of the other pitchers on this list. He was quite good last year with a 1.157 WHIP in 31 starts last season, but it wasn’t until then that he really cemented himself as a big league starter. Any acquiring team will be paying for a guy who is producing the way he has for the last season and a half, and will hope that’s the guy they’re getting long term.

Tier 2- Mike Minor & Madison Bumgarner

There are a few solid left-handers on the market this year, and a notch above Matt Boyd are a couple of veterans with a great deal of experience, and likely a lot left in the tank.

Mike Minor has been arguably the best pitcher in the American League this year, which has been a pleasant surprise for the Texas Rangers. I could probably have included him in Tier 1, but I chose to keep him here because a) I’m not sure I’d bank on him keeping this up, and b) the Rangers may not trade him, unless they’re blown away by an offer of course.

The 31-year-old is 8-4 this season, carrying an impressive 2.73 ERA and a WHIP 1.164 in 19 starts and 122 innings pitched. He leads the American League in bWAR for starting pitchers with a 5.9 mark already, and has 121 strikeouts against 44 walks.

Minor has some extra appeal because of the affordable salary of 9.5 million (which includes a $333,333 annual bonus), and he’s under contract for next season at the same price. That said, the Rangers are going to hold him in higher regard because of that, as they should.

When it comes to Madison Bumgarner, I’m very confident that contenders will be interested in a guy with as much playoff pedigree and express as he has on his resume. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the season, but even as a rental he could carry value for an acquiring team, even if the fiery southpaw might not be quite as good as he was at his peak.

After making just 38 starts over the last two campaigns, Bumgarner has had a nice bounce-back season. He’s 5-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in 21 starts and 125.2 innings pitched. He’ll turn 30 on August 1st, and to me, he’s proven that he’s capable of being a rotation workhorse, and probably the type of guy you want in your playoff rotation. He’s also not that expensive, making just 12 million this year at the end of the team-friendly deal he signed in San Francisco.

Will teams pay a premium for a rental in today’s market? I guess we’ll find out. It’ll be interesting to see which of these two southpaws fetch the bigger return. Minor’s numbers and contract control say he’s the obvious choice, but don’t discount the playoff resume that Bumgarner carries either.

Tier 1: Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard,

At the top of the list are two of the better right-handers in all of baseball, even if their stats this season don’t necessarily paint that picture.

Last season Trevor Bauer was one of the best pitchers on the planet and was probably on route to winning the Cy Young award before he hit the injured list late in the year. This season he hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s still carrying a record of 9-7 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP in 22 starts and 144.2 innings.

It’s a curious situation for the Cleveland Indians, as they’re currently at the top of the Wild Card race in the American League, but they’ve also discussed that they’re going to try and trade a starter while also contending at the same time. That’s obviously a cost-cutting measure that they’re being forced into for one reason or another, but it sounds like they’re serious about dealing Bauer for the right return.

The 28-year-old is making 13 million this season and will no-doubt go to battle for the maximum salary he can get in his final year of arbitration next year, but the acquiring team would still have him around for 2020, even if it might be a little pricey. It could be tricky for a contending team to send a package that makes sense for Cleveland, who is also still trying to contend on the fly, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

Noah Syndergaard hasn’t had the greatest of seasons in 2019, but he probably has the most raw talent of anyone on this list. Whether or not he can harness that potential is still a big question, but hopefully a change of scenery from New York will do him wonders.

The 26-year-old has made 19 starts this season, going 7-4 with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.228 WHIP in 119.2 innings. He’s earned 1.2 bWAR so far and hasn’t been bad by any stretch, but he’s a far cry from the pitcher that took the National League by storm in 2016.

What makes him particularly interesting is that he still has two years of contract control remaining, and he’s making just six million this year. That means basically any contender can afford his salary, it’s just a matter of if they’re willing to pay the sky-high price that the Mets will have to be asking for him.

Where does Stroman rank?

If we’re trying to figure out where Stroman ranks compared to the rest of the options on this list, that order could be different depending on which front office you’re asking. I would bet that teams like the Yankees, who have seen a lot of him over the last few years, or the Braves, who employ Alex Anthopoulos, may see him with higher value than others. Then again, who knows.

If you’re asking me, I’d put Stroman in Tier 2 with Minor and Bumgarner, a tick or two below the top tier options that could be available. That list could also grow if the Diamondbacks decided to trade Zack Greinke, or if there was another surprise on the market, but at this stage it’s hard to see there being too many surprises.

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Of course, value comes down to what a buyer is willing to pay, and it’ll be interesting to see how Atkins and the Blue Jays handle trading arguably their most valuable moveable asset. They weren’t able to get maximum value for Josh Donaldson when he was injured in the final year of his contract, and so far the return for J.A. Happ (Billy McKinney and Brandon Drury) has been pretty disappointing. Especially because Stroman has an extra year of control and makes his 7.4 million this year, this is an important trade both for their reputation and for the future of this franchise, and they can’t afford to mess it up.

The Blue Jays are pretty flush with talented young infielders, and the hope is that they can supplement their system with some additional pitching prospects, and possibly some talent in the outfield as well. There are contenders who have those type of pieces in their minor league systems, it will just be a matter of finding a suitable deal, and one that will work for the Blue Jays and the rest of their talented core that’s started to form.

It’s not a guarantee that Stroman is going to be dealt before the end of the month, but after all of the comments and reports that have floated around the media, it feels like a foregone conclusion. Hopefully the front office can still maximize his value if they do end up pulling the trigger on a deal, and it’ll be very interesting to see how the return on that deal compares with other swaps for starting pitchers across the league. Stroman is one of the better options out there, and hopefully he fetches that type of return, if he’s dealt at all.