Blue Jays: Evaluating the first half of a difficult 2019 season

Now that we’re officially at the halfway point of the 2019 season, let’s spend some time evaluating what’s gone well, and what’s gone wrong so far.

We knew the Blue Jays were going to take their lumps once they committed to going to a full rebuild, but I expected things to go a little better than they have so far.

There have been highlights and reasons for excitement and optimism, but I can’t always blame many of the fans for being frustrated with a lost season, especially one with so many games yet to be played. Throw in trade rumours for some of the most useful players still kicking around like Marcus Stroman or Ken Giles, and it’s not hard to envision things getting worse too, somehow.

That said, as the young players on this team continue to gain MLB experience, they are going to improve not only this season, but more importantly, for what’s to come later in this rebuild. That’s not always the easiest selling point, but we’re seeing the proof with young talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cavan Biggio, and more, and that matters whether it feels like it right at the moment or not.

The halfway point of the season feels like a good place to start to evaluate how things have gone, so I figured that’s exactly what I’d do here today. Despite the fact that the ‘boys in blue’ are just 29-52, it hasn’t been all bad.

So let’s break things down and see what’s gone right and wrong for the 2019 Blue Jays so far, and have a glance and what we can expect in the 2nd half.

The offence

I’m not going to sugar coat it, the Blue Jays’ lineup has been straight-up bad this year. There have been individuals who have had hot streaks, and some are worse than others, but as a collective unit, they’ve been flat out terrible.

They’re 13th in the AL and 25th in baseball in runs scored, last (AL) and 29th (MLB) in team batting average, 14th (AL) and 28th (MLB) in OBP, and 14th (AL) and 27th (MLB) in OPS. That’s a recipe for disaster, and the Blue Jays have the record to prove it.

As I mentioned on the previous page, there have been some positive highlights that we can focus on. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .305/.351/.615 with 12 home runs in 44 games and has been a revelation since returning from Triple-A. Eric Sogard has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball with his .301/.369/.495 slash line in 52 games, and Cavan Biggio is sporting an on-base percentage of .373 in his first 28 games.

Beyond that, I would say that we can celebrate that Guerrero Jr. looks like he can “handle” the big leagues, but isn’t quite ready to dominate at just 20 years old (although that could change any moment). Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez each have 14 home runs, and Justin Smoak collected 12 before hitting the IL. Freddy Galvis also recovered from a long cold-snap enough that the Blue Jays may be able to trade him this summer after all.

Overall though, things have been a mess for Charlie Montoyo to sort out in his first year at the helm in Toronto. I don’t blame the rookie skipper by any means, and it’s good to see him putting the youth at the top of the lineup lately, even if it was just to get them more at-bats, which hasn’t been the only reason.

As bad as things have been, I expect that we’ll see some improvement in the 2nd half. There’s really nowhere else to go.

First-half rating: D-

The pitching staff

We’ve now established that the Blue Jays’ lineup would be cause enough for futility from this team so far, but the pitching staff hasn’t helped things either.

The starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries throughout the year, as they’ve missed key portions of the season from Matt Shoemaker, Clay Buchholz, Ryan Borucki, Clayton Richard, and more, and Aaron Sanchez has dealt with blister and fingernail issues again, although he’s managed to avoid the injured list. Thankfully Marcus Stroman is having a strong season, and Trent Thornton has been a worthwhile rotation piece.

The bullpen hasn’t been hit as hard in the injury department, but beyond Ken Giles I don’t know that there is a whole lot of reason for celebration. Giles is working on an All-Star calibre campaign with a 1.33 ERA, 12 saves, and 47 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched.

Overall the pitching staff is sitting 23rd in baseball in team ERA with a 4.91 mark, and it’s only because of the struggles across the American League that rank them 10th in the AL. They’re 22nd in opponent’s batting average, 23rd in strikeouts, 29th in OBP, and 27th in OBP. You could argue that the pitching staff has been slightly better than the offence, but I’m not sure that matters at all here.

The Blue Jays do have Richard back in the rotation and Borucki made a successful appearance with the GCL Blue Jays earlier this week, but things could get ugly for this staff by the end of next month, Both Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles have been the subject of trade rumours, and there’s an outside chance that Aaron Sanchez could attract some interest too. Losing any or all of those arms won’t help for a team that’s had to rely on Edwin Jackson at times because they admittedly didn’t have any better options.

There are some nice pieces in the lower levels of the minor leagues for the Blue Jays, but most of them are a few years away. This has to be the focus for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro at the trade deadline if they’re making any significant moves.

First-half rating: D-

The front office

Speaking of Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro, I’m not going to let them off the hook here for how the season has gone on the field.

You can argue that the players have underperformed and in most cases that would be true, but there’s a reason that not many people are calling for Charlie Montoyo’s job even though he’s started out by going 23 games under .500 this year. That’s because this team was built to lose this year, and that’s not the manager’s fault.

It’ll all pay off if this rebuild becomes a successful one in a few years, but right now the Blue Jays have a lot of work to do in order to get this team back to being competitive. It’s going to take time for their best prospects to develop at the highest level, but they’re also going to need to add some pitching, likely an outfielder or two, and eventually some veterans to top things off.

I’ll hand it to the front office because there have been a few decisions that have really paid off. The Trent Thornton trade for Aledmys Diaz looks like a steal so far, and moving Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the outfield has really changed his season and maybe his career. They did very well to turn Roberto Osuna into a dominant Ken Giles (plus more), and I’ve liked many of their recent draft picks.

I can’t compliment them without picking on a few decisions they’ve made as well though. Anyone who has been paying attention at all this year won’t forget (but would like to) the names of Socrates Brito and Alen Hanson, and trade acquisitions like Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney really haven’t worked out that well so far.

They also chose to extend Randal Grichuk early in the year for five years and 52 million dollars. I’ll admit that I thought it was a fantastic idea at the time, but I also understand why many folks are questioning the timing of the deal based on his performance in the first half. The contract should still work out just fine and it’s not going to prohibit them from doing anything going forward, but Grichuk hasn’t been the same player we saw in the second half of the 2018 campaign.

The biggest test for this front office will come in July when they make their decisions on guys like Stroman, Giles, and possibly others like Sanchez, Galvis, Justin Smoak and others, If they can bring back some badly needed pieces to help in the near future, then maybe they can change the narrative. Right now the fan base isn’t so pumped on how things have been going, and rightfully so.

First-half rating: D-