Blue Jays: Evaluating the first half of a difficult 2019 season

Now that we’re officially at the halfway point of the 2019 season, let’s spend some time evaluating what’s gone well, and what’s gone wrong so far.

We knew the Blue Jays were going to take their lumps once they committed to going to a full rebuild, but I expected things to go a little better than they have so far.

There have been highlights and reasons for excitement and optimism, but I can’t always blame many of the fans for being frustrated with a lost season, especially one with so many games yet to be played. Throw in trade rumours for some of the most useful players still kicking around like Marcus Stroman or Ken Giles, and it’s not hard to envision things getting worse too, somehow.

That said, as the young players on this team continue to gain MLB experience, they are going to improve not only this season, but more importantly, for what’s to come later in this rebuild. That’s not always the easiest selling point, but we’re seeing the proof with young talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Cavan Biggio, and more, and that matters whether it feels like it right at the moment or not.

The halfway point of the season feels like a good place to start to evaluate how things have gone, so I figured that’s exactly what I’d do here today. Despite the fact that the ‘boys in blue’ are just 29-52, it hasn’t been all bad.

So let’s break things down and see what’s gone right and wrong for the 2019 Blue Jays so far, and have a glance and what we can expect in the 2nd half.

The offence

I’m not going to sugar coat it, the Blue Jays’ lineup has been straight-up bad this year. There have been individuals who have had hot streaks, and some are worse than others, but as a collective unit, they’ve been flat out terrible.

They’re 13th in the AL and 25th in baseball in runs scored, last (AL) and 29th (MLB) in team batting average, 14th (AL) and 28th (MLB) in OBP, and 14th (AL) and 27th (MLB) in OPS. That’s a recipe for disaster, and the Blue Jays have the record to prove it.

As I mentioned on the previous page, there have been some positive highlights that we can focus on. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .305/.351/.615 with 12 home runs in 44 games and has been a revelation since returning from Triple-A. Eric Sogard has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball with his .301/.369/.495 slash line in 52 games, and Cavan Biggio is sporting an on-base percentage of .373 in his first 28 games.

Beyond that, I would say that we can celebrate that Guerrero Jr. looks like he can “handle” the big leagues, but isn’t quite ready to dominate at just 20 years old (although that could change any moment). Randal Grichuk and Rowdy Tellez each have 14 home runs, and Justin Smoak collected 12 before hitting the IL. Freddy Galvis also recovered from a long cold-snap enough that the Blue Jays may be able to trade him this summer after all.

Overall though, things have been a mess for Charlie Montoyo to sort out in his first year at the helm in Toronto. I don’t blame the rookie skipper by any means, and it’s good to see him putting the youth at the top of the lineup lately, even if it was just to get them more at-bats, which hasn’t been the only reason.

As bad as things have been, I expect that we’ll see some improvement in the 2nd half. There’s really nowhere else to go.

First-half rating: D-

The front office

Speaking of Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro, I’m not going to let them off the hook here for how the season has gone on the field.

You can argue that the players have underperformed and in most cases that would be true, but there’s a reason that not many people are calling for Charlie Montoyo’s job even though he’s started out by going 23 games under .500 this year. That’s because this team was built to lose this year, and that’s not the manager’s fault.

It’ll all pay off if this rebuild becomes a successful one in a few years, but right now the Blue Jays have a lot of work to do in order to get this team back to being competitive. It’s going to take time for their best prospects to develop at the highest level, but they’re also going to need to add some pitching, likely an outfielder or two, and eventually some veterans to top things off.

I’ll hand it to the front office because there have been a few decisions that have really paid off. The Trent Thornton trade for Aledmys Diaz looks like a steal so far, and moving Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the outfield has really changed his season and maybe his career. They did very well to turn Roberto Osuna into a dominant Ken Giles (plus more), and I’ve liked many of their recent draft picks.

I can’t compliment them without picking on a few decisions they’ve made as well though. Anyone who has been paying attention at all this year won’t forget (but would like to) the names of Socrates Brito and Alen Hanson, and trade acquisitions like Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney really haven’t worked out that well so far.

They also chose to extend Randal Grichuk early in the year for five years and 52 million dollars. I’ll admit that I thought it was a fantastic idea at the time, but I also understand why many folks are questioning the timing of the deal based on his performance in the first half. The contract should still work out just fine and it’s not going to prohibit them from doing anything going forward, but Grichuk hasn’t been the same player we saw in the second half of the 2018 campaign.

The biggest test for this front office will come in July when they make their decisions on guys like Stroman, Giles, and possibly others like Sanchez, Galvis, Justin Smoak and others, If they can bring back some badly needed pieces to help in the near future, then maybe they can change the narrative. Right now the fan base isn’t so pumped on how things have been going, and rightfully so.

First-half rating: D-

Closing thoughts

We could break down things even further by looking at the defensive stats, or a whole host of other categories where things didn’t go so well, but I’m not sure there’s any sense in kicking a dead horse any further.

It hasn’t been pretty for this young squad, and facing the possibility that they could lose some or most of the useful veterans that are still in the clubhouse, the pressure is going to be on the kids to start performing. The immediate expectations should remain low, but we’re already seeing signs of optimism out of the new top of the order, and there’s more talent on the way like Bo Bichette to keep things interesting through the long summer months.

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I will admit to you all here now, this has been one of the toughest seasons for me to maintain my interest, maybe in my entire life. I was mentally prepared for a losing season when it began, and yet I’ve found it difficult to make it through all nine innings on many evenings. That’s not to say that I’m quitting on this team or that I don’t believe in them, but some nights there is only so much a fella can take. I share that with you in hopes that it makes you feel better if you’re feeling the same way.

All that said, I really do believe in the future of this franchise, and the next month or so will play a crucial part in how long this rebuild might take. Will Atkins offer an extension to Stroman or Giles, or will they sell them to the highest bidder? Are the Blue Jays going to be able to get anything of value back for Galvis, Smoak, Sogard, Richard, David Phelps, or any of the other veterans that could be on the block? Will they acquire players who can help right away?

There are a lot of questions that don’t have answers just yet, but what we do know is that things haven’t exactly gone according to plan so far this year. That’s okay as long as things start developing in a more positive manner over the second half, and here’s hoping this talented young team can do just that.