Blue Jays: Predicting where the veterans get traded this summer
We know the Blue Jays are going to be sellers on the trade market this summer. With that in mind, where will some of their veterans end up?
Whether the fans like it or not, the Blue Jays are all but guaranteed to make a trade or two before the July 31st deadline.
The majority of the lineup these days is made up of youth, but there are still a few veterans hanging around, and some of them make a lot of sense as potential trade chips. Whether it’s because they’re on a contract that expires at the end of this season or next, or maybe that they’re blocking a future piece that needs playing time like a Bo Bichette, Ross Atkins and the front office are likely to be among the busiest sellers.
That said, in order to make a trade you have to find an interested party, and that could be easier said than done. The clubs that are going to be doing the buying are the contenders, and while the Blue Jays can offer upgrades at some positions for some teams, finding a landing spot for everyone they would like to deal could take a bit of work.
A lot could change on that front over the next six weeks or so as well, as contending teams could have injuries to their rosters in that time, or perhaps there is an emerging team like the Cincinnati Reds that could play their way into contention, and possibly as a buyer on the trade market as well.
There are a lot of variables at play and no guarantee that any of these players are ultimately dealt, but I figured I’d take a stab at predicting where the Blue Jays send their veterans this summer. Feel free to look back on this in August and have a good laugh at my expense.
Justin Smoak to the Milwaukee Brewers
Justin Smoak is one of those players that could fit into the “might not get traded” category, but don’t let that give you the wrong impression about whether or not he still brings value to the ballpark.
If the Blue Jays are going to trade Smoak this summer, there are a few things to keep in mind. First of all, they need to find a team that has a need for an upgrade at first base or at designated hitter, and there aren’t a lot of contenders in that category.
However, I do see there being a potential fit with the Milwaukee Brewers, who have struggled to get production from their first basemen all year long. Whether it’s been the epic struggles of Jesus Aguilar or the inconsistent play of Travis Shaw, they’re not getting what they need out of the position. Eric Thames has spent a fair bit of time there too, but he can also play the outfield.
The Brewers have a few options they could pursue if they want to upgrade their lineup. They could recall Keston Hiura, who had a fantastic debut earlier in the year, but that would require some roster shuffling. It would allow them to use Mike Moustakas at either third base or maybe first, and they could move Shaw around too.
Realistically, the Brewers don’t have to add a player from outside the organization if they want to shuffle things up a bit, but that’s also part of why I think Smoak works for them. Due to the limited demand in the first base/DH department, the Blue Jays won’t be able to ask a whole lot for their popular slugger, and that should add to his appeal to the Brewers. Include his modest salary and it works in that department as well.
What the Brewers will have to figure out is what to do with Aguilar, and maybe Shaw as well, as they’ve both struggled. They’re going to feel a roster pinch whether they bring Hiura back or add another player, but it’s becoming more clear all the time that they’re going to need to do that this season if they truly intend to compete.
I’m not saying it’s a perfect fit, but I feel it’s the best one I can find for Smoak. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the year in Toronto though either.
Freddy Galvis- Los Angeles Dodgers
Freddy Galvis is another guy that could stick around for the full season, but I feel like there’s a fit with the Dodgers, even if Corey Seager comes back healthy later this summer.
Right now the Dodgers are very thin up the middle, using a combination of Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and Max Muncy to help fill things out. Seager obviously takes over at shortstop again when he comes back, but he missed the majority of last season too, so it wouldn’t hurt to have some insurance and Galvis could provide that.
Despite the fact that he’s having a bit of a down season at the plate, he would probably serve as an upgrade over both Hernandez and Taylor as well, neither of whom have hit all that well this season. They are both capable outfielders as well, and that would give the Dodgers the flexibility that they enjoy to use those two as utility players rather than in a full-time role in the infield.
Galvis isn’t going to be a big impact player, but his solid defence at both shortstop and second base would be a plus for the Dodgers, and he wouldn’t cost them a whole lot in terms of salary, and likely in a return as well. He’s making just four million this season with a club option for 5.5 million in 2020 that carries a buyout for one million. The Blue Jays should also be in a position to send a little bit of money with him if necessary as well.
Like Smoak, finding a trade partner for Galvis isn’t going to be an automatic thing, but I feel there’s a decent fit with the Dodgers at the moment.
Ken Giles- Philadelphia Phillies
While I hope the Blue Jays consider keeping Ken Giles around, it’s entirely possible they see him as someone who should be traded this summer in order to maximize his value. He’ll go through arbitration for the third and final time before next season, and become an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 campaign is over.
Giles has been fantastic this year, and there is a legitimate argument that the Blue Jays should keep him around as part of the rebuild. However, it’s not always popular to spend on the bullpen (although that has changed in recent years), so it’s possible the Blue Jays don’t want to invest there when they are in the earliest stages of their rebuild. If that’s the case, trading Giles now makes sense, even if he’s been lights out.
There should be several interested parties in upgrading the back of their bullpen, especially with the increased emphasis on the role in the playoffs. It wouldn’t shock me if a number of teams came calling, but I’m setting my prediction with the Phillies, which would be a return to Philadelphia for Giles from the beginning of his career.
With David Robertson unavailable, Hector Neris has been the closer in Philly this season. While he’s been effective with 15 saves, a 2.67 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, the Phillies could use some help in the late innings. They should get Robertson, Pat Neshek, and Tommy Hunter back at some point, but there’s no doubt that injuries have been a big factor, and they’ll want to shore up the depth in advance of the playoffs if they really plan on contending.
The Phillies entered play last night just 0.5 games behind the Brewers for the 2nd Wild Card spot, and 1.0 behind the Rockies. They’re also not out of the race in the East either, so bringing in an upgrade of Giles’ calibre would probably be a smart play.
I don’t have any juicy rumour tying the two clubs together here, I just see a fit that makes a lot of sense from the Phillies perspective, and if they could pry away someone like Spencer Howard as part of the deal, then it’s worth exploring from the Blue Jays’ side as well.
Aaron Sanchez- St. Louis Cardinals
This one is really taking a shot in the dark for me, but hear me out why I think Aaron Sanchez with the Cardinals may actually make some sense.
First of all, tell me it wouldn’t feel like a Cardinal thing to do to acquire Sanchez and then watch him stay healthy and blossom in St. Louis? It happened with Chris Carpenter when the Blue Jays let him go in the late 90’s, and it seems like they’re a team that frequently finds a diamond in the rough. Once, Sanchez qualified as one of the most exciting young talents in the game, but right now he’s gotta be viewed as a pretty big wild card.
He’s currently 3-9 with a 5.49 ERA and a WHIP of 1.665 through his first 16 starts, but at least he’s managed to avoid the injured list. He has dealt with some blister and fingernail issues again this season, but thankfully he was able to avoid missing a start. Unfortunately, his production hasn’t been up to snuff, and I can’t help but wonder if that’s a contributing factor once again.
While I don’t think Sanchez will bring back much of a return, I feel like the Blue Jays are getting to the end of their rope with the 2016 AL ERA leader. Maybe the lack of a market will push them to keep him around until/if it improves, especially with their own need for arms in the rotation. If they do ship him out this summer though, St. Louis could make some sense as a landing spot.
They entered play last night just 1.0 game behind the second Wild Card spot, and 2.0 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. They do have five healthy starters right now, but Sanchez’s numbers would represent an improvement from what Michael Wacha has done this season, believe it or not.
Sanchez’s bounce-back potential would be the selling point though, and for that the Cardinals wouldn’t likely have to pay that high of a price. Considering how familiar these two teams have been in dealing with each other over the last few years (Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz), some of the homework could be done for the Blue Jays as well.
Marcus Stroman- Atlanta Braves
Yes, I know that the Atlanta Braves signed Dallas Keuchel to join their playoff-ready squad, but I still don’t think that will keep Alex Anthopoulos out of the running to acquire his former starter in Marcus Stroman.
The Braves have one of the deeper systems in baseball, and the fact that Stroman comes with an extra year of contract control will certainly be appealing to AA and the rest of the front office. He’s also playoff-tested and is having another strong season after dealing with some injury issues last year.
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Julio Teheran has been solid this year, as has Mike Sirotka since re-joining the rotation, and Max Fried hasn’t been bad either. Again, Keuchel will help, but how are you lining up that group in a playoff series? That’s why I think Anthopoulos’ work isn’t over, and why he’ll have his eyes on the Blue Jays’ best starter.
It’s possible that other teams like the Yankees or Padres join in on the sweepstakes, but I don’t think anyone will value Stroman in quite the same way that his former boss would. The fact that the Yankees are in the same division won’t help them get a deal done for Stroman either, even if they were able to get the Jays to trade J.A. Happ last season. That’s a bit of a different situation.
I’m also of the opinion that the Blue Jays should probably be trying to extend Stroman based on their future pitching needs, but all of the rumours that have been coming out have leaned the other way. If we’re talking about the kind of haul the Rays got for Chris Archer last season then fine, but we’ll see what the Blue Jays can get in return for a season and a half of Stroman. I really do believe the Braves give them the best chance to maximize that value.
If I’m going to include one more bonus prediction, I’ll say that Eric Sogard ends up in Tampa Bay before the season is over. He’s been a very pleasant surprise in Toronto, and he is the type of cheap-contract player that the Rays always turn to gold. They could also use a bit of help in their keystone positions as well, and Sogard wouldn’t cost much I’m sure once we get later into the summer. I’m not ready to make a guess on if or where David Phelps gets traded, but that could be a possibility as well.
I’ll reiterate one more time that I’m simply taking an educated guess as to where these players will end up, if the Blue Jays trade them at all. I could legitimately foresee a situation where all five of the players I’ve talked about finish their seasons in Blue Jay uniforms, so this is hardly a foregone conclusion.
We do know that Atkins and company will be taking phone calls over the next month and a half though, and that with a rebuild in full swing there’s a good chance they’ll be happy to add to the minor league coffers. Whether or not they can find those trades remains to be seen.