Blue Jays: Which NL contenders could come calling for a starting pitcher?

Earlier in the week, we took a look at the AL teams that could have interest in potentially available Blue Jay starters. Let’s now have a look at the list from the National League.

The Blue Jays have looked a little bit better this week, but that’s not going to change their status as sellers at this year’s trade deadline.

There’s no telling how deep the veteran sell-off will go this round, but as we’ve mentioned here many times before, there’s a very good chance that players like Justin Smoak, Freddy Galvis, and others will be on the block before the July 31st deadline if they aren’t already.

If the Blue Jays decide to sell on Ken Giles right now then there’s a solid argument that he may be their most valuable trade chip, but I think that distinction still goes to Marcus Stroman. The 5’8 right-hander has looked a lot more like himself this season after a difficult 2018 campaign hampered by injuries, and he still has a year remaining of contract control before he’ll be a free agent after the 2020 season. There’s also the talented but injury-prone Aaron Sanchez, who could draw interest, and possibly veterans like Clay Buchholz and Clayton Richard if they’re healthy and performing.

Pitching is always an important need for any team looking to make a playoff run, and there are bound to be suitors this summer, especially for Stroman. Earlier in the week, we looked at some of the American League teams that could be calling over the next seven or so weeks, and now it’s time to see who may do the same from the National League.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies might be in first place in the NL East, but if they’re really serious about taking a run at the title this year then they probably need to upgrade their rotation.

They’ve got a great start with Aaron Nola as the staff ace, who despite not having as good of a season as he did in 2018, is still a top-shelf arm. Jake Arrieta has been solid this year and Zach Eflin is having a great first half as well, although he’s currently out dealing with back tightness.

It just doesn’t feel like the Phillies have the firepower to get it done though, and pursuing someone like Stroman to slot in between Nola and Arrieta would probably work very well. Not only would it give them some depth that they could really use, but Stroman also has playoff experience on his resume, and he’s shown an ability to step up when the pressure is on.

The Phillies have also shown that they’re clearly in win-now mode by doing things like signing Bryce Harper to a 13-year contract, and even with the trade they made for Jay Bruce last week to help their outfield depth. My guess is they’re going to continue to look for upgrades to help them not only solidify their playoff spot but hopefully to help them make a deeper run as well.

I’m not sure if there are the right pieces in the Phillies’ system to get it done or not, but there should certainly be interest, especially because Stroman’s contract is pretty reasonable, especially for his level of production. It makes sense based on need, but we’ll see if there’s a fit there or not.

Likelihood= 2.5/5

Colorado Rockies

As of this writing (prior to the schedule being completed on Thursday night), the Rockies were just 0.5 games back of the 2nd wild card spot, so they’re clearly in the playoff picture again this year. However, they’re dealing with a familiar theme in the hitter’s haven in Colorado, a need for starting pitching.

It looked like things were trending in the right direction last season, but unfortunately, it hasn’t been the same in 2019. German Marquez has been very good, but Kyle Freeland was so bad that he was sent back to Triple-A after finishing 4th in Cy Young voting a year ago. Jon Gray has been serviceable, but beyond that things have been pretty ugly in the Rockies’ rotation.

After signing Nolan Arenado to a huge extension they may not feel quite the same “win-now” urgency that they would have otherwise, but I still think the Rockies will be active buyers to upgrade their rotation. Whether or not there’s a match with the Blue Jays remains to be seen, but someone like Stroman who can keep the ball down would be a good fit, or at least as good of a fit as there is at Coors Field.

With a core that includes guys like Arenado, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and more, it would be a shame to see them miss on an opportunity to take a run this year. Their minor league system is seen to be in the middle of the pack, and with bigger contracts that could be eaten like Ian Desmond‘s, maybe there’s a deal here, even if it’s a creative one.

Likelhood= 2.5/5

St. Louis Cardinals

The wild card race is shaping up to be a very interesting picture this year, and the familiar faces of the St. Louis Cardinals are right in the thick of things.

As of this writing, they are a game behind the Braves for the 2nd wild-card spot and 2.5 behind the Cubs for the division lead. There is plenty of firepower in St. Louis and every reason to believe they’ll be at or near the top of the standings by season’s end, but they could use a little more help getting there.

Miles Mikolas hasn’t been as sharp this season, but still represents a solid rotation piece, and Jack Flaherty is quietly putting together a strong campaign. Adam Wainwright hasn’t been awful, but I don’t think the Cardinals want to count on him come playoff time, even if he’s been there many times before.

For this team to take a real step forward will require a significant upgrade in the rotation, and maybe even two. Dakota Hudson‘s 3.70 ERA may look okay on paper, but his 1.57 WHIP shows that there’s a fair bit of luck involved in that number being under four.

The problem for the Cardinals when it comes to rotation upgrades is that their minor league system is pretty weak. For that reason, I could see them looking for high-upside, lower-cost guys, and I can’t help but think that Sanchez could work in St. Louis. The long-time Blue Jay fan in me remembers what moving to St. Louis did for Chris Carpenter‘s career after mixed results in Toronto, and maybe they can do is again for the blister-prone Sanchez. That wouldn’t guarantee the immediate help they could use, but it could be a solution beyond this year as well if it works. It just feels like a Cardinal thing to do to me, but maybe I’m way off.

All that said, I don’t really see the Cardinals and Blue Jays hooking up for a trade this summer, even if they’ve been fairly successful partners in recent years with deals for Randal Grichuk and Aledmys Diaz. At least those ones worked out for the Blue Jays anyway.

Likelihood= 2/5

Milwaukee Brewers

Once again the Brewers are looking dangerous as they entered play on Thursday in a tie for the top of the NL Central with the Cubs.

This is a strong roster and it should be no surprise that they’re back in the playoff hunt, but they’re as obvious of a fit as anyone in need of a rotation upgrade. How much they’ll spend this summer remains to be seen though.

Zach Davies has had a standout campaign so far through 12 starts, pitching to a 2.20 ERA and a reasonably solid 1.22 WHIP. Brandon Woodruff and Chase Anderson have both been dependable arms in the rotation as well, but they could really use a healthy and productive Jhoulys Chacin, which they haven’t had so far in 2019.

The Brewers haven’t been big spenders historically, so it’s possible they could be looking for smaller upgrades to help their depth as well. That said, they could certainly use a top of the rotation arm as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them interested in several of the Blue Jays’ rotation options.

Whether there’s a trade fit or not remains to be seen though. The Brewers also have a weak farm system, and with the Blue Jays being very focused on the rebuild I don’t know that they’ll have the pieces to get a deal done for someone like Stroman. They have plenty of reason to call Ross Atkins though, and I’m willing to bet they do just that.

Likelihood= 1.5/5

San Diego Padres

If there’s an ideal place to trade Marcus Stroman this summer it’s probably with the San Diego Padres. In fact, there’s a good chance a lot of that groundwork was done during the offseason when there were reported talks between the two parties.

The Padres also have the benefit of one of, if not the best minor league system in baseball. The Blue Jays have one of those too, but it’s not seen on quite the same level and they’re also in a much different position than the Padres right now, who are hoping to contend as early as this season.

The Padres are currently 2.0 games back of the 2nd wild card spot, and while they’ll have plenty of competition I don’t think it’s out of the question to consider them real contenders. That said, they could use some help in the rotation, and a multi-year fit like Stroman could be more enticing to them than a rental acquisition.

They have some solid starters in guys like Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Chris Paddack, and young talent like Cal Quantrill, but an experienced veteran would go a long way to solidifying this group, especially if they were in a playoff series. They have experienced playoff veterans like Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado already, but having one in the rotation would help, and Stroman can provide that.

They wouldn’t have to deal the best of their prospects in order to make a deal here, but the Padres would have to do better than what they reportedly offered this past winter. That offer didn’t get it done back when Stroman had a lot more questions around his performance, and now that he’s shown he’s a capable top-end starter again he should command a little more than he did before.

I really do believe that the Blue Jays would be better off extending Stroman than they’d be by trading him, but if there’s a fit that works I think it’s in San Diego.

Likelihood= 4/5