Blue Jays: Why trading Justin Smoak may be harder than it should be

There’s no doubt that Justin Smoak is a useful MLB hitter, but trading him this summer and getting any value in return could be harder than you think.

It’s no secret that the Blue Jays will likely be one of the most active sellers before the July 31st trade deadline, as that’s what happens when you’re in the beginning stages of a rebuild.

It’s expected that Ross Atkins and the front office will be shopping a list of veterans that could include Freddy Galvis, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ken Giles, and possibly others. Each of the players listed has another year of control of their contracts, so there are even more obvious trade candidates like Clay Buchholz, Clayton Richard, and veteran first baseman, Justin Smoak.

Smoak is one of the few holdovers from the 2015-16 playoff teams, and has quickly become the oldest regular in the lineup despite being only 32 years old. With a young roster that doesn’t mean he’s old by any means, and he’s shown again this year that he’s a useful contributor on both sides of the ball.

On an expiring contract, it would make a lot of sense for the Blue Jays to explore trading him to a team in need before the stretch run this year. They always have the option of bringing him back this winter as a free agent, and they have to be pleased with the production of Rowdy Tellez so far, which could make the front office increasingly comfortable handing him the reigns at first base. Smoak’s eight million dollar contract isn’t exactly cumbersome, but it’s usually better to get something, rather than nothing, when it comes to a veteran on an expiring deal.

The problem with Smoak isn’t that he’s been injured (like a Josh Donaldson last year), or that he isn’t performing (Russell Martin, Marco Estrada, and more), but it still may be tough to find a trade partner for him this summer, at least for any semblance of fair value in return. The reason for that is the same reason sluggers like him are struggling to get big money, long-term deals in free agency. There are a lot of capable big leaguers who can play first base or DH.

If you look at the standings as of this writing (Saturday evening, prior to the games being finished for the night), the playoff contenders include the following:

American League

New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Indians, Oakland A’s, Los Angeles Angels, and (maybe) the Texas Rangers.

If look at the rosters of those teams, I don’t know that any of them are going to be willing to overpay for someone like Smoak. The Yankees have Luke Voit, the Red Sox have Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce, the Rays have Ji-Man Choi, the Twins have Marwin Gonzalez and C.J. Cron, Cleveland has Carlos Santana, the Astros have Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White, Oakland has Matt Olson, and the Angels have Albert Pujols.

I’ll concede that it’s possible that the Astros would consider adding Smoak and using Gurriel elsewhere, as he can move around the diamond. That said, I don’t think it’s likely. Just as I don’t think it’s likely that the Rays, who could use Smoak, will make a deal within the division. I also don’t I think the Angels will bench Pujols, or that the Rangers will be in the playoff race a month from now.

Now, injuries can change everything, and that has been blatantly obvious with the Yankees this season. Any of the above-mentioned teams could find themselves in need of a player like Smoak if they are hit with a key injury in the next two months, but as things stand right now I feel like it’s hard to find a fit.

Possible fits: Rays, Astros, Rangers, Angels

National League

Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, and (maybe) the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals.

There’s a similar problem going on when it comes to the first base position among NL contenders. The Cubs have Anthony Rizzo, the Dodgers use Max Muncy and David Freese, the Phillies have Rhys Hoskins, the Braves have Freddie Freeman, the Padres have Eric Hosmer, the Cardinals have Paul Goldschmidt, the Rockies have Daniel Murphy, the Mets have Pete Alonso, the Pirates have Josh Bell, and the Nationals Ryan Zimmerman and Matt Adams.

I left the Brewers off the list because I see them as the best possible fit from either league. They currently have Eric Thames (.244/.372/.429) and Jesus Aguilar (.193/.301/.307) as their tandem there, and neither has been terribly inspiring in 2019. That said, there is plenty of time for that to change for July 31st, both with the Brewers standing in the playoff race and with the production of their current duo. Aguilar also hit 35 home runs and had 108 RBI last year, so he’s bound to turn it around at some point.

Beyond the Brewers, the Nationals could work but they’re already 6.0 games out of the 2nd Wild Card spot, and look like a seller more than a buyer. Otherwise, are there any teams that need Smoak? Or maybe a better question, are there any teams that would pay much of anything for an incremental upgrade at first base? I think the answer is ‘no’ unless, of course, an injury takes place before the deadline.

Possible fits: Brewers, Nationals