Blue Jays: Long Term Goals May Lead To Short Term Frustration

With the Toronto Blue Jays sitting towards the bottom of the division, it is no secret they are in a rebuilding phase. Fans want to see a winning team, and they may, unfortunately, have to wait a few years for a contender at the Rogers Centre (that isn’t in an away jersey).

As the Toronto Blue Jays migrate towards a younger, prospect driven team, the next few seasons may be a difficult for diehard fans to swallow.

While the young guns gain more experience in major league waters, errors and mistakes are going to occur in the field and at the plate, and the Blue Jays may lose more games as a result.

The young prospects will have to adjust against big league pitching staffs and will need to get comfortable at the plate with the pressures of being a big league player. The same can also be said for young pitching prospects, as they too will have to adjust to professional hitters they wouldn’t see normally in AAA or AA ball. There are no Aaron Judge or Mookie Betts type players in the farm system for a reason.

And to be completely honest, with where the Blue Jays currently sit as an organization, the only way they are heading is towards a rebuild.

Now before you take your pitchforks out and say I should lose my writing job, let me explain my case.

The Toronto Blue Jays are already in a rebuilding phase and this is pretty non-debatable. We don’t have a lot of veteran players on the roster, and a lot of high-level prospects that should equate to everyday players, even potential superstars are waiting in the minors.

With this movement from playoff contender to rebuilding team over the past 4-5 seasons, the Blue Jays will lose some players that fans have grown accustomed to seeing in the lineup on a regular basis.

Players like Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin, and Kendrys Morales packed their bags this year, while J.A Happ was traded last year, and Marco Estrada left via free agency. There is even the potential for prominent players like Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Justin Smoak to be dealt his year or next (except for Smoak, his contract is up after this year) in exchange for younger, contract controllable players.

I do want to note that I think the Jays should keep Sanchez and Stroman for the long term, but I have accepted that there is a chance they will be traded, especially with Sanchez being represented by #1 Blue Jays fanatic and super-agent Scott Boras.

New additions Freddy Galvis and Matt Shoemaker are having breakout seasons for the Blue Jays, and they too will most likely get traded this year. They were brought in to be filler pieces for this season, hence the one-year contracts. They were just brought in for the short term because the Blue Jays need to put nine guys on the field every day and the Nate Pearson’s and Bo Bichette’s in the organization were not ready to make the team when the 2019 season began.

For both Galvis and Shoemaker, the one year contract was more of an audition for why teams should sign them to a longer term deal when 2019 is over. It is always possible that these one year contract guys could get resigned to long term deals with the Jays, but it is more than unlikely given the rebuilding phase we are currently seeing.

The unfortunate part is that Galvis and Shoemaker make up some of the best players on the team right now, and it’s tough to say the team is trying to be competitive when we trade away our best performing players on the roster. If they do get traded, the Jays will most likely deal with playoff contending teams and can possibly receive a better deal in return (as long as management does their homework). Playoff teams can get desperate at the trade deadline and this could benefit the Blue Jays.

We as fans may not agree with trading our best players or the players we are used to seeing, but that’s why rebuilds are not a fun process. No franchise dreams of entering a rebuild, but sometimes they are necessary in order to field better teams over the long run.

Let’s explore why we are currently in this situation.

After the 2016 season, we were left with a team that had quite a veteran presence and with a prospect depleted farm system. The Jays went all in for the playoffs, and all the top organizational prospects at the time like Daniel Norris, Alberto Tirado, Miguel Castro, Matt Boyd, and Jeff Hoffman were gone. The team also wasn’t aided by top draft picks like D.J Davis and Max Pentecost not panning out like they were supposed too (both are no longer with the organization).

They also had a major organizational change in the front office with general manager Alex Anthopoulos leaving for the Dodgers and president Paul Beeston retiring in the offseason after the 2015 playoffs. This would allow a Cleveland Indians 2.0 era to begin in Toronto, with the hiring of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins as the president and general manager respectively.

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If you think 2019 will be rough, imagine 2020 when these prospects make up most of the team and they are getting their first taste of the big leagues. While we may think Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio, and Bo Bichette will come up and dominate big league pitchers, the more realistic expectation is that they will take a moment to adjust to time under the bright lights of the Rogers Centre.

They could even have to have stints in the minor leagues if they being to struggle, just like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is right now. Even Mike Trout had to pay a visit to the minor leagues when he was first called up (obviously he is an exception considering his star status, but you get the memo).

There is the possibility that the Blue Jays could add significant players through free agency, but that would pull away from the norm of past operations considering the organization usually prefers high-level trades over pursuing big name free agents. This could drastically change the dynamic in Toronto, depending on who the Jays sign (Mookie Betts is probably going to be a free agent after 2020, just saying…and dreaming).

It also doesn’t help that the Blue Jays are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, with Tampa Bay coming out of successful rebuild with talented assets and with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox continually buying players and developing their own systems.

To summarize this article, we as fans should expect that some of our fan favourite players may wear different jerseys at the end of the year. It is not a fun feeling to see these players go, but if the organization is hell-bent on focusing on the homegrown prospects making up the team, and all signs are pointing to this, the next few years may see the Jays have under .500 records.

I obviously can’t predict the future, and maybe the Blue Jays do make some monumental trades with the prospect pool, and/or sign some huge free agents over the next few offseasons. The prospects could go either way when it comes to performance, carrying the team to multiple playoff runs or drowning under the pressure of major league baseball.

Unless monumental change happens via trade or free agency, the Blue Jays front office are betting on their prospect pool to carry the team over the next 5-10 years and are hoping this group of guys can take the team back to the postseason.

Until then, sit back, relax, and enjoy your ride, because no matter if you like it or not, no matter if they succeed or not, you are strapped in for the long haul.