Blue Jays: Would a healthy Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have made the team?

After both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Eloy Jimenez were named to their respective opening day rosters, you can’t help but wonder if it would have made a difference in Vladimir Guerrero Jr’s promotion schedule too.

There’s been a sudden shift in the last week or so among players, front offices, and most importantly with the amount of big contracts that are being agreed to. The likes of Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are STILL waiting on a free agent contract, but the last few days have been great to players who have been seeking extensions with their current clubs.

Of course we saw the record breaking deal that Mike Trout agreed to in Anaheim, and we’ve seen big money pitchers like Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom work out extensions as well. The most notable one however, may have been the six year deal the White Sox struck with Eloy Jimenez, which also includes two club options. Jimenez has yet to play his first big league game, so the deal was unprecedented in a way, and I recently wrote about how the Blue Jays should do the same.

If not for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., then one of either Jimenez or the Padres’ Fernandez Tatis Jr. would be viewed as the top prospect in baseball, and both are imminent stars from the looks of things. They’re also both going to get the chance to start the 2019 season in the big leagues, after it was widely assumed that they would start their seasons in Triple-A, much like the Blue Jays have always planned to do with Vlad Jr.

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We can talk semantics all we want, but in each of these three cases the biggest issue with their promotion schedule has been around contract control, and the fact that the Blue Jays could get an extra year of guaranteed time with their top prospect by delaying his MLB start by a few weeks. Of course, Guerrero Jr’s oblique strain a few weeks ago made that whole debate a moot point, but you can’t help but wonder how things would have played out if he were healthy right now.

In my opinion, the GM of the Padres in A.J. Preller is doing the right thing by starting Tatis Jr. in the big leagues now, even if that means he theoretically loses a year of contract control. I’m sure he saw what just happened with Jimenez’s contract, and he’d probably like to do something similar with his own budding star. While he’s not guaranteed that Tatis Jr. and his camp would agree to a contract right now, baseball is about trends and Presser might be making an intelligent, reactionary move here.

There is safety in numbers, and if all three of the Blue Jays, Padres, and White Sox had given their potential stars the same treatment then it would be easier for each of them to swallow. That doesn’t mean that they’d be happy about how things worked out, but knowing that other players of a similar ilk are in the same boat makes it easier on both the player, and the club. Now that Jimenez has been signed in Chicago, and the Padres have made their opening day call with Tatis Jr., Ross Atkins and company might view it as a blessing in disguise that Guerrero Jr. got hurt when he did, especially because it should be a relatively short-term thing to deal with.

I can’t help but wonder if the Blue Jays would have had their hand forced a bit if Guerrero had been on the field and raking all spring. Imagine him walking off another game in Montreal only to return to Buffalo again, and what that would have done to the excitement level around this team right now. Instead, Atkins has the luxury of talking about how he’s progressing and will be back on the field soon, and once they decide he’s healthy and ready for the rigours of the big leagues, service time will no longer be an issue anyway.

Perhaps they’ll look at the Jimenez model anyway, and I really think they should, because it would appear that they have a possible pillar of their rebuild, and in a best case a generational talent in Toronto for the next half dozen or more years. As far as things stand today, I can’t help but wonder if the situation would have changed given everything else that’s happened around the league. Who knows, maybe it will sooner than later anyway.