Blue Jays: The main questions ahead of the 2019 season

When will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. make his debut?

This is a never ending topic that will likely continue until the announcement of his impending promotion. Even though the case of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been more than covered, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins made some comments on MLB Network Radio about “Vlad Jr.” that added some mistery to the case.

“I just don’t see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a major league player”- Ross Atkins

Many disagree with Atkins, specially after seeing his minor league offensive statistics, and imply Atkins is just saying that to avoid Guerrero’s call up to the big leagues, earning an extra year of contract control. Atkins does have a case though, Guerrero isn’t the finest defender and he’s still 19 years old, so why rush it? Sure, the team needs a player like him, any team does, but considering the situation of the big league club, having all the pressure laying on a 19 year old’s shoulders might not be the best scenario.

Even though it seems like pressure doesn’t affect “Vladdy”, Atkins might be waiting for not only his defense to be polished, but for another of the organization’s top prospects to be ready for the big leagues, and therefore have the pressure spread on several of them and not just on the 19-year-old phenom. This is just a thought, however, and there’s no doubt the kid is ready to hit at the highest level.

No one really knows when exactly Guerrero Jr. will make his major league debut, not even Ross Atkins perhaps, but what’s certain is that, unless the teenager gets off to a terrible start in the minors this season, Blue Jays fans will see him in a big league uniform early this year. After hearing the GM’s words last week, it might not be at the end of April like expected, but that will probably depend on two factors.

First of all, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance the first month of the season. The other factor, and probably the key one, will be the team’s situation around May. If the team is on a roll, something unexpected, then the call up might be inevitable for Ross Atkins to inject even more energy in the team and continue that hypothetical good start to the season. If the team is already, say 10 games under .500, then there might be not point in rushing the call up and letting him polish his game in the minors might be what Atkins would prefer and the best possible option.

Can Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez stay healthy?

The outcome of the season for the Blue Jays will largely depend on the health of the pitchers who have showed they have “ace” potential in the past. Marcus Stroman has showed that if healthy he can beat anyone and can carry along a pitching staff. Aaron Sanchez had a Cy Young type of season in 2016, and he keeps showing signs of such level in his starts, but injuries, specially the nagging blister issues he’s had, have prevented him from pitching at that level on a regular basis.

Sanchez made 20 starts in 2018, an improvement over the eight starts he made in 17′, but 28 starts in two seasons is far from what you want for a pitcher who has the potential to be one of the best in the American League. It’s an obvious statement that if Sanchez stays healthy the Blue Jays will do a lot better in terms of record. In addition to that, the 26 year old is a great trade chip for the Blue Jays who could look to deal him before the trade deadline if he stays healthy and performs adequately, which would get the Jays a premium return in terms of prospects.

Stroman on the other hand has been more durable over the last two seasons, but he still made just 19 starts in 2018, a season in which he had shoulder and blister issues. His 5.54 ERA is far from the level he performed at in 2017 in which he made 33 starts pitching to a brilliant 3.09 ERA with a winning record of 13-9. Just like Sanchez, Stroman is a great trade chip that the Blue Jays might want to turn into top prospects. His value is reasonably high because of what he has showed in the past, but it has certainly dropped significantly compared to where it was after the 17′ season.

Both are essential for a hypothetical good season and for good returns in possible trades. If they both have a healthy season the Jays have two potential aces on their hands, as well as two potential trades that could easily transform an already very good farm system into the best one.

When will the prospect wave hit Toronto?

This is an exciting question. While the major league team has been a frustration for two seasons in a row, the farm system has created excitement and illussion among fans. Apart from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., prospects like Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Kevin Smith, Nate Pearson, Danny Jansen and Eric Pardinho have also put fans on their heels waiting for their call ups.

Danny Janssen will be the everyday catcher this coming season if everything goes like expected. Prospects like Biggio and Bichette will likely get the call up in 2020 although there is a chance they earn a promotion this season. The best pitching prospect in the organization, Pearson, is expected to make the jump in 2020 according to MLB Pipeline, but considering the injuries he’s had over the last two seasons, 2021 seems like a more plausible scenario for the flamethrower, although a September call up in 2020 wouldn’t be a surprise.

This year however, as already mentioned, fans will see Jansen play behind the plate most days, “Vladdy” will come up one day or another this season, and eventual promotions for Bo Bichette, and Biggio shouldn’t be ruled out this year. Some prospects that have already made their debuts but still have the prospect status such as Sean Reid-Foley, David Paulino, Rowdy Tellez, Billy McKinney, Reese McGuire and Anthony Alford will eventually contribute, whether they begin the season with the team or not, and play at some point in the big leagues once again in 2019.

Overall, the time period in which Blue Jays fans will see the prized prospects, who haven’t made the jump yet, will come up will be between 2020 and 2022, years in which the team is expected to be contending once again like Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro have said multiple times.

What can be expected from the offseason acquisitions?

The Blue Jays didn’t make any headline moves this offseason, but they added some players that could pay dividends on low risk deals. They added rotation depth in Matt Shoemaker, Clayton Richard and Clay Buchholz, as well as some bullpen help with the additions of Bud Norris, David Phelps and the Canadian veteran John Axford, names that could make the Jays’ bullpen quite a solid one. The notable position player addition was the one of veteran infielder Freddy Galvis, who will get the majority of playing time at shortstop.

Shoemaker and Buchholz will form the rotation along Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, with either Richard or Ryan Borucki competing for the 5th spot in the rotation. If Borucki wins the job then Richard will head to the bullpen and be an option for the rotation if there are any injuries.

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Buchholz and Shoemaker are veterans with loads of experience who can pitch at a level of a No.3 starter and could turn into great trade chips for the Blue Jays at the trade deadline. If Buccholz pitches like he did last year for Arizona when he posted an excellent ERA of 2.01 in 16 starts, with Stroman and Sanchez pitching at their potential level, then the team could end up having at fantastic rotation with a lot of solid depth. Sean Reid-Foley, Sam Gaviglio and possibly Ryan Borucki, if he doesn’t begin the season as the 5th starter, would be waiting at Triple-A for an opportunity if there are any injuries, trades, or even a lack of performance in the big league rotation.

If David Phelps comes back in good shape after his Tommy John surgery and Bud Norris pitches like he has for the last two years the Jays could end up having an extremely solid bullpen with Ryan Tepera and Ken Giles in the back end of the group. Relievers are very valuable at the trade deadline, which means the Jays could have several trade chips in the bullpen and once again acquire some more prospects in the trade deadline for relievers who will be free agents at the end of the season anyway.

Freddy Galvis will likely get the majority of playing time at short but he will also likely get some innings at second base or even third base from time to time. With the signing of Galvis, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will be more of a utility man who we might even see in the outfield at some point. Galvis has played every single game of the regular season for two years in a row, and although that feat will come to an end this season with the Blue Jays, the Jays have a player who is available everyday, can hit for some power and is a good fielder who will provide defensive stability in the infield.

While the Blue Jays aren’t expected to be in the playoff picture this year, that doesn’t mean their roster lacks intrigue, or that we won’t see improvement from a year ago. With a new skipper, a largely rehabbed roster, and more questions than answer, it should be an interesting season to follow.