Blue Jays: Discussing the cloudiness around the starting rotation

The Toronto Blue Jays signing of Clay Buchholz has put the rotation into a state of cloudiness, which may not be to the benefit of Ryan Borucki.

Earlier this week the Toronto Blue Jays added Clay Buchholz to the 25 man roster and DFA’d Dwight Smith Jr. to make room for him on the 40 man.

Buchholz seems like he will be inserted directly into the rotation. While that seems reasonable, it doesn’t make sense considering it’s made the status of Ryan Borucki‘s rotation spot uncertain. Let’s go through and see how this all sits as of now.

The Locks 

More from Jays Journal

• Matt Chapman has been exactly what the Blue Jays needed
• Blue Jays: The goalposts are moving in the right direction
• Single-A Dunedin Blue Jays advance to the Championship Series
• Blue Jays: Comparisons for Alek Manoah’s Second Season
• Blue Jays: Adam Cimber, the unlikely decision King

Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Matt Shoemaker are locks for the rotation. They will be in there no matter what happens performance wise the rest of the way. Injuries could derail that, but fingers crossed nothing comes up. That’s especially so considering Aaron Sanchez has started strong, as has Matt Shoemaker.

As mentioned, it seems as if Clay Buchholz is a lock for a rotation spot. He brings with him a 2.01 ERA and 3.47 FIP from the Arizona Diamondbacks in 16 starts made in 2018. Buchholz is familiar to almost every Blue Jays fan from his time with the Boston Red Sox from 2007 to the end of 2016. He was the original asking price the Blue Jays front office gave the Red Sox when they wanted to trade for John Farrell, which of course ended up being for Mike Aviles instead.

Regardless, when healthy, which is always a key for Buchholz (and Sanchez and Shoemaker), he can be very effective. He also really enjoys pitching at the Rogers Centre (proven statistically too), something Buchholz told me on Canada Day in 2015 when I ran into him at a Toronto bar and shared drinks with him (not kidding). It seems likely he is penciled in to this rotation.

Clayton Richard

Clayton Richard was acquired from the San Diego Padres for Canadian Conor Panas in late December, a few days after Matt Shoemaker. Richard has eclipsed the 200.0 inning mark twice in his career, but not since 2012. He came close with 197.1 innings in 2017, where he tied his personal best fWAR of 2.4.

Battling injuries all 2018, Richard struggled mightily and especially so with the long ball. He did in 2017 as well, a disturbing trend while moving to the American League East. Despite a 5.33 ERA a season ago, his 4.68 FIP is respectable when considering a 4.50 ERA is all you need to log a quality start in the MLB, going six innings with three runs allowed. If you normalized the home run ball to 10.5% (xFIP), marks of 3.76 in 2017 and 4.24 in 2018 aren’t terrible. Regardless, the fit to me isn’t there for Richard as a starter in the AL East.

Considering the only current left hander in the bullpen is Tim Mayza, Richard definitely seems like a candidate for a bullpen spot after Buchholz’s signing. However, the front office has given no indication as to Richard’s ultimate role, which brings us to Ryan Borucki.

Ryan Borucki

Ryan Borucki ascended quickly through the minor leagues the last few seasons and the front office is very high on him. He made it to the bigs for 17 good starts in 2018 where his ERA was 3.87 and FIP was 3.80. In total, Borucki posted a 1.7 fWAR in his 17 starts. Before Clay Buchholz, Borucki would have been considered a lock for the rotation, but now that is quite murky.

The front office has preached 2019 as being a season where the kids are here to play. Nothing supported that more than having Troy Tulowitzki released and Russell Martin traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers to clear playing time for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Danny Jansen. If that’s indeed the case, why would Ryan Borucki’s spot be anything less than locked up?

Borucki is more than deserving of a rotation spot in 2019 and the signing of Clay Buchholz shouldn’t change that in favour of keeping Clayton Richard in the rotation. Sean Reid-Foley could have won a spot in the rotation before Buchholz, but there’s a very logical reason to start him with the Buffalo Bisons in AAA. There is not a logical reason for having Ryan Borucki start in Buffalo.

The back end of the Blue Jays rotation is quite cloudy right now but it does not have to be that way. Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Matt Shoemaker, Ryan Borucki, and Clay Buchholz with Clayton Richard as the second lefty in the bullpen should be the play for the Blue Jays to open 2019. But the cloudiness likely won’t clear any time soon until near the end of the spring. This is something to monitor throughout the spring.