Blue Jays: The leadoff spot is definitely up for grabs right now

On Friday, new Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoya talked about the leadoff spot in his lineup, and some of the candidates. Who makes the most sense?

It seems like we’ve been talking about the same thing every spring for the last several years now as fans of the Toronto Blue Jays, and a bunch of roster turnover and even a new manager hasn’t changed things. I’m talking about the need for a leadoff hitter, something the Blue Jays have lacked for a long time.

On Friday their new skipper Charlie Montoyo addressed that very topic, and even named a few of the potential candidates (we’ll get to that in a minute). While there are a few players who could theoretically fill the role, I wouldn’t go as far as to say there’s an obvious choice, which is why the topic is coming up again.

The analytics of baseball have changed enough that a leadoff hitter isn’t purely just a guy who can run and steal bases anymore. Those attributes are still very useful of course, but as the game has evolved so has the emphasis on the importance of on-base percentage in the leadoff spot. It was that line of thinking that had us watching Jose Bautista lead off for John Gibbons‘ lineup at times in the past.

A big part of the equation will be a) who makes the Opening Day roster, and b) who is all healthy to start the year, which so far (knock on wood), hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays position players.

With that in mind, let’s have a look at who Montoyo mentioned as potential candidates, and even a few options that he didn’t mention specifically.

Devon Travis

Let’s start here, mostly because he’s been the most frequently used leadoff hitter in recent years, at least of the players still with the Blue Jays.

The talented second baseman gave us a lot of hope in the early part of his career, as he showed an ability to hit for .300, and served as a pretty useful piece ahead of the likes of Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and the rest of the Blue Jays power hitters. Of course, his much bigger issue was the ability to stay healthy and in the lineup, a struggle that has really taken a lot from his MLB career so far.

Last year he did manage to stay on the diamond, which was a big plus, but unfortunately he wasn’t quite the same hitter he had been in the past. He finished 2018 with a slash line of .232/.275/.382 in 103 games, collecting 378 at bats. He also spent some time in Triple-A early on in the year when he was really struggling, but even after he returned we never really saw the best of Travis.

I wouldn’t rule out a bounce back by any means, but he will have to continue to stay healthy, which was a big win for him and the Blue Jays last year even if his peak performance didn’t come with it. He’ll also need to earn regular playing time in order to be seen as a leadoff hitter, unless the Blue Jays plan to rotate a few different guys through the spot in the order. As things currently stand, it appears that Freddy Galvis will get the majority of starts at shortstop, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is expected to start the majority of the time as well, which will likely come at second base. Brandon Drury could also slide over and see some time there as well, especially after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is promoted a few weeks into the season.

All that being said, the Blue Jays are clearly being open-minded about getting Travis into the lineup, especially because they’re considering using him a bit in left field this year. It remains to be seen if he can handle the task at the big league level, but if his bat is pushing it’s way into the lineup then don’t be surprised to see him get a few opportunities.

Travis is also an especially interesting case because I could see him legitimately needing to fight for his job on the 25 man roster this spring, and into the early part of the season. They’re going to need to find regular playing time for Gurriel Jr., Galvis, Drury, and others in the outfield as well, so Travis is going to need to perform well enough to justify his spot in the lineup, and maybe even the roster.

For now, he’s a legitimate candidate for the leadoff spot, especially in the early part of the season. It is possible though that if he’s not performing well enough for that job, that he could be hard pressed to have a job in Toronto at all.

Billy McKinney

One of the more frequently used leadoff men late in the 2018 was Billy McKinney, who was a pleasant surprise after arriving from New York in a trade involving J.A. Happ.

McKinney finished with a slash line of .252/.320/.470 in 36 games with the Blue Jays, and was especially good early on. He hit 395/.478/.763 in his first 12 games, before slashing just .182/.232/.325 in his last 20 starts, and 24 appearances. Both sets of numbers come from small sample sizes, and chances are he will perform closer to the overall line.

That said, he didn’t have a great year in Triple-A last season before his promotion, and the numbers might suggest that he could use a little more time in the minor leagues before taking on a MLB job, let alone a role like leading off. I think the former first round pick has sneaky potential in Toronto, but I don’t like the look of that .222/.307/.470 slash line in 84 games spent between AAA-AA-A+.

Also working against McKinney is the fact that he’ll need to earn starts in what’s becoming a crowded outfield picture. Randal Grichuk and Kevin Pillar seem slated for regular playing time in centre and right field, so that leaves left field as a battle ground for the rest on most days. That picture will include Teoscar Hernandez, and possibly the infielders that Montoyo will be tasked to get into the lineup like Travis, Gurriel Jr., and even Drury.

McKinney also has minor league options remaining, which won’t help his case for making the team out of Spring Training. However, Montoyo did mention him by name when asked about it on Friday, so he’s at least under consideration for a roster spot, and for the task of leading off in 2019.

My guess is he’ll start the year in Buffalo barring injuries to other players on the roster, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Toronto at some point this year, and also to get a shot at leading off. It seems like he looks the part more than fits the description with his numbers, but we’ll see how he continues to develop.

Dalton Pompey

The third player that Montoyo talked about on Friday is Dalton Pompey, who remains on the 40 man roster and in the conversation for a spot on the team come Opening Day.

Unlike McKinney, Pompey is out of minor league options and will need to make the team out of Spring Training if the Blue Jays hope to retain him. His career has been marred by injuries and disappointment so far, but there’s enough upside to think that another team would be interested in having a look, and enough incentive for the 26 year old to see opportunity elsewhere if it’s not going to come in Toronto.

Montoyo mentioned that he likes Pompey’s tools, which is always what has made him enticing as a lineup option in Toronto. He’s well known for his speed and ability on the base paths, something we saw him utilized for during the playoff runs in 2015-16, and that would play well at the top of the lineup. He’s also a switch-hitter, so in theory the Blue Jays could have more lineup stability and avoid a platoon situation at the top of the lineup card, assuming he’s performing from both sides of the plate of course.

Pompey also has the same uphill battle in left field that faces McKinney, and playing time is going to be hard to come by. They’ll have to compete for starts with the players I mentioned on the last slide, as well as potential pressure from other minor leaguers like Jonathan Davis, Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr. and maybe others.

If you add it all up it doesn’t look like there’s much of a chance for Pompey to get the call in Toronto this year, however, there’s a reason he’s still on the 40 man roster. Perhaps that’s because the Blue Jays want to shop him this spring rather than letting him go for nothing, and that’s why they’re planning on giving him an extensive showcase in Dunedin.

However, it’s also possible that he’s got a real chance to claim some of that playing time in left field, and the idea of fielding an outfield that includes him, Pillar, and Grichuk could be a real defensive asset. Here’s hoping that Pompey gets a legitimate shot at a roster opportunity, because he’s probably the best option we’ve talked about so far.