Blue Jays: Five questions fans are asking with spring games approaching

How long will fans have to wait to see Vlad Jr. in Toronto?

Taking on the role of baseball’s latest wonderkid and unanimous top prospect, Guerrero demolished every level of the minors he saw in 2018 and has absolutely nothing left to prove outside of the major leagues. Without a doubt he deserves to start the year in Toronto; I know it, you know it, and the Jays front office knows it too.

Despite all of this, Guerrero will man the hot corner in Buffalo for at least the first two weeks of the season in order to prevent him from collecting a whole year of major league service time. When Guerrero does receive the call, his first appearance will be the most anticipated game the franchise has seen since their latest playoff runs. This poses the question: when exactly will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. make the trip north to Toronto?

Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote an article with this explanation:

“The 2019 season will last 186 days. Anything more than 171 days of service time and Guerrero Jr. gets a full year of big-league time in 2019. That means he has to spend at least 15 days in the minors (186 – 171 = 15). The regular season includes four days in March. Add in 11 days in April, and Guerrero Jr. would miss the requisite 15. That means the soonest Guerrero Jr. could safely debut is Friday, April 12, a home game against the Rays.”

If Guerrero were to make his first major league appearance in a Friday night home game against a division rival, the city of Toronto would enter a state of chaos. Fans would be rushing to buy tickets and jerseys emblazoned with the number 27 on the back. It’s not a stretch to think that we could see a sold out Rogers Centre for Vlad’s debut.

Nicholson-Smith goes on to explain that it is unlikely Guerrero is with the Blue Jays on April 12th, saying that the front office may wish to avoid any grief from the MLB players association regarding the Jays manipulating the service time of their top prospect. Something the front office should consider is calling up Guerrero for the afternoon game against the Rays on April 14th, allowing fans to see their future star’s debut at home before the team heads on a seven game road trip where Vlad Jr. would have a more relaxed environment to settle in with the team.

It’s safe to say we will see Guerrero at some point in April, but his exact debut date is up in the air.

Will Bo Bichette see the majors in 2019?

While it is a near certainty that Guerrero will be up within the first month of the season, the same can’t be said for his minor league teammate and good friend Bo Bichette.

Last year Bichette spent the entire season at Double-A New Hampshire, posting a triple slash line of .286/.343/.453 with 11 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 595 plate appearances. The Jays already have numerous options up the middle with Freddy Galvis expected to draw the majority of the starts at short, and three players competing for time at second base in Brandon Drury, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Devon Travis. For the long-term, Bichette is far more intriguing than any of those guys, but I imagine the front office will want him to spend some time in Triple-A before bringing him up to the big club.

Based on the moves, or lack of moves made this offseason, it’s very clear that the organization is in no rush to contend this year. As a result of this, Bichette will likely spend the majority of the 2019 season with the Bisons, giving fans another reason to travel to the newly renamed Sahlen Field in Buffalo. Leaving the team’s current number two prospect in the minors gives the front office more time to decide if he has the defensive ability to play shortstop at the next level, or if he is destined for second base.

On the off chance that the Jays are in a wild card race towards the end of the season, they may opt to call up Bichette in order to aid a potential playoff push. The more likely scenario however is that the team falls out of it and chooses to hold him down until two weeks into the 2020 season, as they have with Guerrero.

Who starts at second base and left field?

Heading into the spring it appears as if there are seven players who are near locks to be constants in manager Charlie Montoyo’s lineup. Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddy Galvis, Justin Smoak, Danny Jansen and Kendrys Morales will be given regular at-bats barring any trades. John Lott of The Athletic recently wrote a piece saying that Montoyo will be experimenting with playing Gurriel and Travis in the outfield, which to me implies that one of Billy McKinney or Teoscar Hernández will be on the outs to begin the season.

McKinney came on strong as a late season call-up in 2018 with a .252/.320/.470 triple slash line and six homers in 128 plate appearances. Hernández on the other hand struggled mightily in the second half, stumbling to the finish line committing a calamity of errors and striking out in 45% of his plate appearances. If he cannot improve on his defensive miscues he may end up being relegated to DH duties once Morales is no longer with the team. It’s also worth noting that the club is going to give Canadian Dalton Pompey a long look in the outfield this spring. You can read our own Chris Henderson’s piece on that here. It looks as if the third outfield job is there for the taking and whoever has the best spring will earn the gig.

I think second base is Gurriel’s position to lose. After he was brought up to the big leagues in April of last year, he was in the lineup nearly every day while healthy. He is under team control through the 2023 season while Travis will be a free agent after 2020. Gurriel was the stronger player last season and is a better fit for the organization’s timeline; they will do all they can to ensure he is a productive piece of any playoff runs in the next few years. It’s hard to imagine Gurriel sitting on the bench for any extended period of time during the season. It appears as if Travis will back up second base and multiple outfield spots.

Who will find themselves on the trade block?

It’s no secret that the Jays are not making a strong attempt to contend in 2019. The front office moved several veterans before last season’s trade deadline in order to better prepare themselves for when their top prospects make the jump to the majors. Without a doubt we will see much of the same this year. Established players including Smoak, Morales and Pillar along with relievers Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera seem to be the most likely candidates to be moved.

First baseman Rowdy Tellez seems to be ready for a chance at a regular starting job and it would be wise to make room for him at some point by moving one or both of Smoak and Morales. As the Jays’ most productive offensive player in each of the last two seasons, Smoak likely holds the most value of any of the older members of the team. He is also in the final year of his contract. All of these factors combined seem to point to Smoak being moved at some point this season.

While most teams likely to be in playoff contention are relatively set at first base, there are a few teams who could come calling for the veteran slugger. The Astros, Indians, Rockies and Yankees make sense as potential destinations.

One of the x-factors of this Jays season will be whether or not the team decides to move either of Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman. Both right-handers are just entering what should be the prime of their careers, and it would definitely take a major haul for the team to pull the trigger on a deal of this magnitude. If one or both is traded, the starting rotation would be set back significantly; it would signal that the front office is confident in the likes of Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley, Nate Pearson and T.J. Zeuch to lead the team’s pitching staff of the future.

What can we expect from Danny Jansen in his first full big league season?

Aside from Guerrero, Danny Jansen may be the most pivotal player in determining the success of this team in the coming years. He was impressive in his brief stint with the Jays in 2018, triple slashing .247/.347/.432 with three home runs in 95 plate appearances.

Jansen appears to be the frontrunner to receive the majority of the starts at catcher, with only Luke Maile and Reese McGuire behind him on the depth chart. The Jays will give him every opportunity to succeed in an attempt to fill arguably the game’s most important position for the foreseeable future.

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Fangraphs Depth Charts projects Jansen for 2.7 WAR in 2019, the highest of any Blue Jay not named Guerrero.

One thing Jansen does extremely well is get on base. He reached base in 40% of his plate appearances across three minor league levels in 2017; that number dropped slightly to 38% in 2018 between Buffalo and Toronto. Depth Charts projects his on base percentage to be .335 along with 14 home runs in 448 plate appearances.

Given the fact that Jansen always reached base at a high rate in the minors and had success doing so in the majors last year, it’s easy to imagine him surpassing that mark if he’s playing well. He could hit a few more home runs as well if given the at-bats.

The major question is how much will Charlie Montoyo rely on Jansen in his rookie campaign. There is no sense running the young catcher into the ground if they aren’t in the playoff hunt, especially with Maile proving he is at least a serviceable major league backup. Jansen won’t be competing for the rookie of the year award, but expect him to play in anywhere from 100-110 games, and if he truly is the Jays second best player this season, his 2019 should be viewed as a major success.