Blue Jays: How does the 25 man roster look if the season started today?

The Blue Jays roster is far from set in stone at this point in the offseason, but if the season started today, who would make the team?

It’s been a long winter for Blue Jays fans, but fortunately the offseason is starting to near it’s completion. It’s been an interesting winter to be sure, with more notable departures (Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Yangervis Solarte, etc) than additions, at least so far.

The Jays have signed a few veterans like Freddy Galvis, Matt Shoemaker, David Phelps, and traded for Clayton Richard, but it will be an offseason that was defined by the transition phase more than who was brought in. That said, we still have a season to look forward to, and one that should have an awful lot of young talent to be excited about. Ross Atkins and the front office have been very careful about how many players they’ve brought in, thus limiting the opportunity of the young talents in their organization, and it’ll be a year of growth for several inexperienced players.

There are some veterans still hanging around too though, and it’s entirely possible that Atkins and company aren’t done their free agent shopping either. I wouldn’t expect them to be swimming in the deep end by any means, but they did bring in some late bullpen options like Tyler Clippard and John Axford last year, and I imagine they’ll look to do the same this month.

That said, the roster is more or less set up at this stage, save for a small tweak of two. A lot can happen between now and the end of March between spring competitions, injuries, and other players that might be brought in, but if the season started today, who would make the Blue Jays’ 25 man roster?

I’ll give it my best shot, and we can all have a laugh at my expense in less than two months.

Lineup vs. RHP

When it comes to the lineup I thought I would split things up a bit, mostly because I think it could be a bigger focus in Toronto than it has been in year’s past. Not that I think we’re going to see platoons being utilized all over the diamond, but I have a feeling that certain positions could be approached in such a way.

I’m going to operate under the pretence that the Blue Jays will carry 13 players, meaning they would have a four man bench. It’s possible that they carry eight bullpen arms to start the year, depending on who they are looking to protect on the roster, and I’ll cover that near the end as well. For now though, let’s have a look at how the Blue Jays might stack up against right-handed pitching.

1- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (2B)

2- Justin Smoak (1B)

3- Randal Grichuk (RF)

4- Kendrys Morales (DH)

5- Kevin Pillar (CF)

6- Freddy Galvis (SS)

7- Brandon Drury (3B)

8- Danny Jansen (C)

9- Billy McKinney (LF)

Bench

• Teoscar Hernandez
• Luke Maile
• Devon Travis
• Dalton Pompey

Let me be clear that I don’t think Teoscar Hernandez is going to only hit against lefties. I’m more looking at how I see the lineup being utilized the majority of the time, but I would expect that all of Pillar, McKinney, and Morales would sacrifice at bats so Hernandez could get in there a good chunk of the time as well.

I also want to reiterate that this is how I see things starting out at the beginning of the year, not how I think the Blue Jays should line things up, or how it’ll ultimately play out. A good example is Pillar, who I don’t think the Blue Jays should use as the #5 hitter at all, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s where he started the season.

Of course things will change when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is inevitably promoted, which will push someone from the 13 man list of players. That spot will likely come down to either Dalton Pompey, or Devon Travis, and it could be a matter of need on the team. I chose Pompey for the 13th man because he’s out of options and I really thought that Atkins would have traded or DFA’d him by now given the way things have gone the last couple of seasons. He remains on the roster however (which personally makes me happy), and I think he’ll have 3-4 weeks to show whether the Blue Jays should keep him around in favour of another outfielder, or a 2nd infielder.

We could also debate the batting order until we’re blue in the face, and I have a feeling that new manager Charlie Montoyo will be experimenting a lot at the beginning of the year. That said, this is my guess for how things goes in the first few weeks, at least against righties.

Rotation

We’ve already talked about how we see the rotation rolling out a few times here at Jays Journal, but I would be remiss if I didn’t at least cover it here.

One of the big questions for this new regime will be whether or not Montoyo and company plan on  using the “Opener” concept this season. For those unfamiliar with the idea, it’s become more popular in recent years for managers to start a reliever and have them go through the lineup once, and then have a bullpen day for the rest of the game. It’s been effective for some teams like Montoyo’s former employer in Tampa Bay, and it’s possible that the Blue Jays could use it from time to time in 2019.

That said, my assumption is Montoyo will wait until the injury bug bites before going that route, but it’s anyone’s guess at this point. With that being said, here’s my guess for how things begin in the rotation on Opening Day:

1- Marcus Stroman

2- Ryan Borucki

3- Matt Shoemaker

4- Clayton Richard

5- Sean Reid-Foley

One thing I’m sure most of you noticed right away was that I didn’t include Aaron Sanchez. It’s not that I don’t think he’ll be a big part of the rotation this year, it’s that I have very little faith he’ll be ready in time for his first start. The reason I say that is because the last thing we heard is that he’s recovering well from offseason surgery on his finger, and hopes to be ready in time for Opening Day. Even with the positive report, it’s the wording from Sanchez himself from a mid-January article from Sportsnet that makes me predict a delayed start.

“(My) throwing program is a little slower than normal only because I want to make sure I’m using my fingertips and the ball is coming off my finger the right way.”

The rest of the report paints a positive picture and reasons for optimism for Sanchez’s future, so hopefully he can finally regain the form that made him one of the best starters in the American League a couple seasons ago. If all goes well he should be ready to join the team very soon into the new campaign, if not for his first turn in the rotation.

My guess is if there’s a need for a fifth rotation arm that Reid-Foley would get the first shot. It’s also possible the Blue Jays could elect to use Richard in the bullpen as well if they want to start Reid-Foley in the big leagues as well, or if they sign another starter before Opening Day.

Bullpen

Last but not least, the bullpen might be the area with the least amount of certainty at this late stage of the offseason. The Blue Jays did David Phelps to an incentive laden contract, but otherwise they’ve been pretty quiet on the bullpen front.

If there’s an area I expect the Blue Jays to still add, it would be in the ‘pen, and I’m even going to use one name that’s not yet in the organization for my prediction here.

1- Ken Giles

2- Ryan Tepera

3- Tim Mayza

4- Joe Biagini

5- Sam Gaviglio

6- John Axford*

7- Elvis Luciano

As I said, there’s a whole lot of uncertainty in the bullpen right now, even if they do have several options on their 40 man roster. The top two arms are locks to make the bullpen, and Mayza likely will be too unless the Blue Jays decide to sign one of the plethora of available southpaws still available on the free agent market.

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I excluded David Phelps from the list because I don’t anticipate he’ll be ready for Opening Day, especially because he had Tommy John surgery in March of last year. He will eventually join the bullpen though, and should prove to be a useful arm as the season carries on. I also included both Biagini and Gaviglio for now even though they’re a little redundant. That said, if Montoyo decides to use the “Opener” concept at all, having both men who can throw multiple innings would be useful.

I also added John Axford to the list here even though he’s not currently under contract. I feel like the Blue Jays need at least one more veteran reliever, and Axford has come out and directly said he’d like to return. Makes sense, right?

Lastly, against my better judgement I’ve put Elvis Luciano as the last bullpen arm. At just 18 years old, I don’t think he’s going to last very long at the highest level, but it would appear that Atkins and company are pretty high on the former Kansas City Royal. If that’s the case, they’ll likely give him a chance to start the season at least, and hope that he can pitch well enough to keep him on the active roster.

I considered including an 8th bullpen arm and dropping a bench spot, mostly in the interest of keeping Luciano on the roster and not having to give him back to the Royals because of the Rule 5 draft rules. In that case, the last roster spot would come down to whether the Blue Jays ultimately protected Luciano, or someone like Pompey, who is out of minor league options.

Of course, everything could change with an injury, or if Atkins signs another free agent or two. However, as things stand today, this is how I see the roster rolling out on day one.