Blue Jays: How the 2019 rotation stacks up heading to Dunedin

With it being less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, how are the Blue Jays stacking up in their rotation right now?

The Blue Jays had one of the most unsteady rotations in the league last year, being just one of three teams in the American League without a 30-start pitcher. 13 different players threw out the first pitch for the Blue Jays last season including Tyler Clippard, John Axford and Luis Santos who were utilized as an “opener”.

This trend will likely continue this season as the rotation tries to recover from an injury-filled 2018. It’s doesn’t just include players trying to bounce back from injuries, it also includes a 35-year-old on an expiring contract who could be moved by the end of July.

There are also some young arms in the organization that may be ready to join the rotation at some point throughout the season, and the Jays new bench boss is coming from Tampa, the pioneers of the opener, so fans will likely see it used more than three times this season.

That being said, the fate of the rotation will hinge on Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez and how they can bounce back, as both enter the season healthy and are two years away from hitting the open market.

The Blue Jays rotation entering the season looks as follows, in no particular order:

Marcus Stroman
Aaron Sanchez
Clayton Richard
Matt Shoemaker
Ryan Borucki

I looked deeper into how these five pitchers fared last season. They combined to average less than 100 innings pitched (494.2 total), an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.419. 35-year-old Richard pitched the most innings of them all at 158.2 and rookie at the time, Borucki, looked to be most steady.

Here’s what you need to know about each of these pitchers with Spring Training just around the corner.

Marcus Stroman

2018 is a season Marcus Stroman is understandably excited to put behind him, and like others in the rotation, remaining healthy and on the mound will be key for a bounce back. Stroman hit the disabled list in May with shoulder fatigue after missing most of Spring Training due to shoulder inflammation. He went back on the DL in mid-August after struggling for some time with a blister, which caused him to pretty much miss the remainder of the season.

Even when he was healthy and on the mound, Stroman didn’t fare too well with an ERA of 5.54 across 19 starts. He had his lowest strikeout rate of his career and his highest walk rate ever. Players were pulling the ball against him more than ever before, and were simply hitting him harder.

In 2017, Stroman’s best season to date, he combined to use his fastball and slider 85.6 per cent of the time, and if you were at the plate chances were you wouldn’t even see his cutter, using it just 2.4 per cent of the time. This season he used the cutter 15.7 per cent of the time and went away from the slider, using it 29% less and re-introducing his curveball, using it about 50 per cent more than the previous year (all numbers provided by FanGraphs).

“Just at a point where I felt like I had to work at 115-120 per cent when I would normally be working at 80-85 per cent to do what I have to do out there,”

Long story short, Stroman relied less on his slider and brought back his curveball, something he used much more over his first few seasons, and also added the cutter to his arsenal.

Baseball is a tricky sport with blisters and playing with new grips and pitches. That may have had something to do with it or absolutely nothing at all. All we know is that even before the blister issues, his shoulder wasn’t 100 per cent early in the season and he had to work even harder on the mound.

“Just at a point where I felt like I had to work at 115-120 per cent when I would normally be working at 80-85 per cent to do what I have to do out there,” said Stroman to reporters in May.

Stroman struggled out of the gate after a short spring and seemed to battle to provide the Blue Jays with innings, never being able to get in a rhythm.

If the season was extended for a few weeks, Stroman could have been ready to pitch and therefore he will enter the spring feeling at the top of his game physically. Stroman should be fun to watch this season as he has two years to find his 2017 form again before hitting the open market. Prior to last season, he pitched over 400 innings combined in 2015 and 2016, and with a rotation that could desperately use some stability and innings, Stroman will look to be that man again.

Aaron Sanchez

Pitching 106 innings last year was definitely an increase from his 36 in 2017, but it’s not what the Blue Jays envisioned when Aaron Sanchez won the American League ERA crown in 2016 as a 23 year old.

He was finally giving the Blue Jays steady innings after a blister filled 2017 and another finger problem came about, much more freakish than a blister though. On their road trip to Anaheim in June he got his finger caught in his suitcase and missed 52 games.

Despite this, he closed the season out with three solid starts including a 1-0 loss to the Red Sox where he went seven strong, allowing one earned run and striking out six. He had surgery on September 25th to fix his right index finger that caused his blister problems in the past. He recently told John Lott of the Athletic that the problem is gone after the surgery and it feels back to normal, also mentioning it felt so wrong for so long, that it feels weird now that it is “right” again.

Sanchez could see his fastball get it’s velocity back after going down a tic, and will look to lead this young team as he hopes to put his injury troubles behind him. When he’s at the top of his game he’s incredibly good at keeping the ball on the ground and with the influx of top infield prospects on the way, a return to his 2016 form could potentially land Sanchez an extension in Toronto with free agency looming after the 2020 season.

Clayton Richard

Since entering the league in 2008, Clayton Richard has made exactly 200 starts with a career ERA of 4.46, tied for the third highest among active pitchers with more than 1000 innings, and a WHIP of 1.424. 175 of those starts came in San Diego which was once considered one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.

To put it blatant, Richard has never been a great pitcher but he should bring some consistency to the Blue Jays rotation inning-wise despite his age of 35, as he’s thrown over 150 innings in back-to-back seasons. That’s something the Blue Jays lacked in 2018 with Marco Estrada pacing the team with 143.2 innings pitched, but as each year passes Richard continues to get hit harder.

His hard hit percentage rose to a whopping 40 per cent in 2018, up from 35 per cent in 2017 and 25.9 per cent in 2016.

Richard was DFA’d by the Padres in December before they moved him to the Blue Jays in exchange for Toronto native, Connor Panas. At age 35 and on an expiring contract, the Blue Jays hope he can remain healthy and induce more soft contact to open up a market for the southpaw as he looks for his first ring with his career dwindling down.

It’s also possible that Richard could end up being a bullpen candidate, either at the start of the season or later on in the year. It’s something he’s done a fair bit of throughout his career (65 career relief appearances), and the Blue Jays could always use another arm in the pen from the left side, especially one that could throw multiple innings.

Ryan Borucki

In a season that saw every opportunity for young pitchers in the organization to step up at the major league level, Ryan Borucki did just did that. He was the team’s best pitcher in 2018 and will look to carry that momentum into his first full season with the big club.

In 97.2 innings, Borucki pitched to a 3.87 ERA with 67 strikeouts and an ERA+ of 109. Borucki uses a three pitch combination of fastball, changeup, curveball, and his changeup, which he used 23.3 per cent of the time, and was what led to his success. His average fastball last season clocked out at 91.9 MPH and thus used his changeup to keep hitters off balance. He had a very respectable 1.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a rookie, especially considering he didn’t even reach the 100 innings threshold.

It’s one thing to come up to the big leagues in the middle of the season and find success, but it’s another to follow up that season with an even better one. Opponents, especially within the division, will now have a better understanding of what Borucki is looking to do on the mound and he must find a way to counter that as he’s already put himself high enough in the depth chart, it’s just a matter of staying there.

He may have been mentioned fifth in this article, but as mentioned above Borucki was arguably the Blue Jays’ best starter last year. Barring injury or some sort of Spring Training disaster, he’ll be a lock for the rotation, and will look to prove that his rookie cameo was anything but a fluke.

The other options

Sam Gaviglio threw the second most innings last year for the Jays, and almost 200 at the big league level over the past two seasons, but he has been rocked around during that time. Gaviglio’s fastball doesn’t even average 90 MPH but he has more experience in the majors than the rest of these options.

Last season was Sean Reid-Foley’s first at the AAA level and also had a stint with the big club. In his 33 innings with the Jays he had an ERA of 5.13 and struggled with his control at times, walking 21 to go along with his 42 batters fanned. Regardless, Reid-Foley showed the ability to miss bats and got experience at the highest level. He was ranked the # 3 pitching prospect in the organization by MLB Pipeline last year.

Thomas Pannone may not have been as highly regarded by MLB Pipeline but cracked the Jays top 30 prospects. He threw 43 innings, including six starts for the Jays last year and showed good command walking just 15 batters, culminating in a 4.19 ERA. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 5.11 shows even that ERA may have involved some luck. Like Reid-Foley, it was Pannone’s first experience in both AAA and the majors. Both could use a little more grooming with the Bisons before another call.

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Trent Thornton has built up his pitch count in the minors over the past three seasons, including 124 in AAA last year, as well as appearing in the Arizona Fall League. Picked up by the Blue Jays in November in exchange for Aledmys Diaz, the 25-year-old lefty is just about ready to bring his deceptive delivery to the majors.

Lastly, the opener will be something to watch throughout the season. The ever creative Rays used it in almost half of their games last year before other teams in the league used it as well, including Toronto. With Charlie Montoyo coming over from Tampa, this is something we will likely see as it worked for his club last season.

Like it or not, the AL average ERA in the first inning was 4.71 in 2018 while the Rays had the lowest in the AL at 3.44.

There’s a lot of question marks in this rotation as the candidates are looking to bounce back, and it should allow all of these pitchers the chance to step in and showcase their talents once again.