Toronto Blue Jays: Looking at the Bullpen’s Trade Value
The Toronto Blue Jays are embarking on their first full rebuild in recent memory, and most people do not expect them to contend in 2019. If they do not contend, there should be a good amount of trades to happen as the season wears on, and Blue Jays management will look to trade for valuable prospects to bolster future rosters.
There is a likely scenario where the Blue Jays are movers of pitching talent as the season 2019 season wears on. Recent years have shown that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are not shying away from dealing bullpen arms to teams for prospect returns. Last year we saw it happen when John Axford was traded to the L.A. Dodgers, Aaron Loup was shipped to Philadelphia, and of course, Roberto Osuna ended up in Houston with the Astros.
The Blue Jays are well set up to try this strategy out again in 2019, and it’s entirely possible they continue to shop in the reliever market, even for this specific reason. We’ve even made a few arguments here at Jays Journal that they should continue to bolster the bullpen, especially given the late and slow moving free agent market that still has some reasonably talented arms.
However, even if they don’t bring in any other established big leaguers to win the bullpen, here’s a look at some of the current Toronto Blue Jays bullpen’s pitchers, and their trade prospects for the upcoming season.
David Phelps (32) RHP
Trade Potential: MODERATE
Contract: 2.5 Million (Club option 2020)
2018: Tommy John surgery (Marlins/Mariners 3.40 era in 2017)
- It’s uncertain if David Phelps will be ready for opening day, but in a Toronto Blue Jays season of rebuilding it may not matter. Phelps did not play at all in 2018 after having Tommy John surgery, and I doubt if the Blue Jays will rush him back this season. If he can return to form and replicate his 3.40ERA from 2017, then there is a strong chance he could play himself into a trade. His contract is very appealing being both low in dollar amount with a club option for 2020.
Joe Biagini (28) RHP
Trade Potential: LOW
Contract: One year 900,000 (Free agent 2022)
2018: 6.00ERA in 72 IP. -0.4 WAR
- Joe Biagini is a whole two years removed from his 3.72 ERA now. His attempt at becoming a starter has been finally laid to rest, and he will be exclusively seen out of the bullpen in 2019. His current trade potential is low, due mostly to the lackluster play the last two seasons. If Biagini can somehow re-create some of that magic from 2016, and pitch well out of the bullpen in 2019, then he would become a viable trade option.
Clayton Richard (35) LHP
Trade Potential: HIGH
Contract: Three million (Final year)
2018: 5.33ERA in 158.2IP. -1.2WAR
- Clayton Richard has been a starter for most of his career, but after a tough 2018 he could make his way to the bullpen depending how some things shake out. If Richard were to pitch poorly in spring training, or Sean Reid-Foley pitches really well, the veteran could be on the outs for the starting rotation. Given that Richard is a lefty and the Blue Jays only have one other bullpen lefty in Tim Mayza, he could be converted to the bullpen early, and if he succeeds there then potentially traded as he is in his final year of his contract.
Ken Giles (27) RHP
Trade Potential: VERY HIGH
Contract: 6.3 Million (Free agent 2021)
2018: 4.65ERA in 50.1IP. 0.1WAR 26SV
- Ken Giles had a good amount of success in 2018 once reaching the Blue Jays. He had 14 saves and a 4.12 ERA while playing for Toronto. Giles is very likely to be traded, and has even recently been linked to trade discussions. He does not fit the Blue Jays current timeline as his contract runs out after next season, and could be very appealing to rival GM’s with excellent numbers from 2017 (2.39ERA in 62.2IP 34SV) Look for the hard throwing closer to be dealt fairly early on this season, and it’s still possible that he goes elsewhere before the year begins.
Tim Mayza (26) LHP
Trade Potential: LOW
Contract: 545,000 (Free Agent 2024)
2018: 3.28 ERA in 35.2 IP. 0.8WAR
- Tim Mayza ended the 2018 season with a 18 game scoreless inning streak. He was arguably the best Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher later in the season. The potential for him to be traded is low, as he has five years of control left at a very team friendly rate, while also being the only locked in left-handed pitcher in the Blue Jays bullpen. It should be noted though that Dominic Leone was also 26 when he was traded to St Louis in 2018, and he had four years of control left on his contract, so while the chance of Mayza being traded is very low, this front office has shown the willingness to move any bullpen arms if the price is right.
Ryan Tepera (30) RHP
Trade Potential: MODERATE
Contract: 574,700 (Free agent 2022)
2018: 3.62ERA in 64IP 1.3WAR
The veteran Texan Ryan Tepera had a very decent 2018 showing with a 3.62ERA and a 1.3WAR. Tepera is under control through 2021 so if can replicate 2018’s numbers he should have a decent shot at being moved to a contender. He generated trade interest during parts of 2018, but nothing materialized. With a full rebuild underway, the Blue Jays may be more motivated to move Tepera this season.
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Danny Barnes (28) RHP
Trade Potential: LOW
Contract: 561,600 (Free agent 2023)
2018: 5.71ERA in 41 IP. -0.3WAR
Danny Barnes had a less than ideal 2018. He posted a rough 5.71 ERA last season after delivering a solid 3.55ERA in 66 IP the year before. Last season was obviously a bit of a step back, but there’s enough talent there that he could be a factor.
He’s under contract for four more season’s so there is no need to rush in trading him, however it would only be possible to do so if Barnes were to improve upon his 2018 numbers next season.
The strategy that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins has deployed in trading relief pitchers for prospects has netted very good returns in recent years. Prospects: Chad Spanberger, Forrest Wall, Bryan Baker, Jacob Waguespack, and Corey Copping were all acquired by the Blue Jays just last season in trades for relief pitchers. Look to see more of these types of trades as the season wears on, as Blue Jays management attempts to further stock the prospect cupboard.