Blue Jays: Dark horse rotation candidates for 2019

Sean Reid-Foley

I’m going to start with the most obvious candidates, and at this stage I feel like Sean Reid-Foley has a very good chance of earning a spot in next year’s rotation.

His cameo with the big league club was pretty successful, especially if you look beyond the numbers and actually watched the majority of his appearances. He made seven starts and threw 33.1 innings, posting a 5.13 ERA and a WHIP of 1.560 while going 2-4. Again, the numbers don’t look all that sexy at first chance, but there was a lot of promise displayed in his short time at the highest level.

The most encouraging sign might be his ability to strike out big leaguers, as he fanned 42 in his 33.1 innings, good for a 11.3 K/9 rate. Strikeouts alone aren’t going to get it done, but the “cup of coffee” he experienced last fall should be great for his development, and whether he breaks camp with the team or not, I fully expect to see him factor into the rotation at some point in 2019.

Thomas Pannone

Ryan Borucki wasn’t the only pleasant southpaw surprise in their rotation last year. After a disappointing start to the 2018 season, Thomas Pannone quickly impressed in Triple-A and made his way to the big leagues in time to help a depleted Blue Jay rotation down the stretch.

Pannone was given a bit more time than Reid-Foley, making six starts and 12 total appearances, throwing 43 innings. He was pretty successful too, posting an ERA of 4.13 and a WHIP of 1.209 in his limited work.

He may have been able to accomplish more, but unfortunately he started the season on the suspension list after testing positive for Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone last spring. Hopefully it’ll be an unfortunate lesson learned for the young man, and 2019 can be the season he claims a big league job for good. He’s not guaranteed a spot in the rotation by any means, but I would expect him to be in a legitimate battle for the #5 spot this spring.

Trent Thornton

Coming over in the trade for Aledmys Diaz was a pretty reasonable return, especially when you look at the value of pitching in baseball these days.

Some people argue that the Astros wouldn’t have let Trent Thornton get away if they thought he was going to be a stud pitcher in the big leagues, but that might be a little short sighted. Like the Blue Jays, the Astros were facing a bit of a crunch with their 40 man roster, which likely lead to part of the reason they were willing to deal Thornton. They also needed to fill their utility position left by free agent Marwin Gonzalez, and it would appearance that Diaz will be fitted for that role in 2019.

Thornton spent the 2018 season with the Triple-A Fresno Grizzles and made 22 starts, and 24 appearances overall. He threw 124.1 innings, had an ERA of 4.42, and a WHIP of 1.198. It sounds like he fares pretty well in terms of spin rate, so hopefully that newer metric will play in his favour as he advances to the highest level.

Like Pannone and Reid-Foley, I expect that Thornton will be given a legitimate look this spring, and chances are we’ll see him making his big league debut at some point next year.

Sam Gaviglio

I probably could have included Sam Gaviglio in the same tier as Reid-Foley or Pannone, but I have a funny feeling that the ends up serving in the bullpen to start the 2019 season.

I do expect that he’ll make some starts when the need arises, but his ability to fill the swing-man role could be very valuable, especially if the Blue Jays and new manager Charlie Montoyo decide to use the “Opener” concept at all. I also feel like the Blue Jays are trending younger, and at 28 I’m not sure the front office will view him as a long term solution in the rotation unless he really over-performs.

He ended up eating quite a few valuable innings for the Blue Jays in 2018, making 24 starts and 26 appearances overall, tossing 123.2 frames in total. He started out better than the overall numbers look, but he ended up with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.439 WHIP. I’m sure he’ll also be on the consideration list this spring, but don’t be surprised if some of the younger, higher-upside guys end up getting the first look, at least for the rotation.

David Paulino

Despite the fact that many Blue Jays fans were disappointed with the way things played out with the Roberto Osuna saga, Ross Atkins and the front office should be applauded for the return they got, especially given the circumstances.

They ended up getting Ken Giles in the deal to help fill their closer needs, but they also picked up a couple other assets in pitchers David Paulino and Hector Perez. For former could very well factor into the Blue Jays plans for 2019, and has a decent chance to be a pleasant surprise.

Like Pannone, Paulino served an 80 game suspension in the 2018 season, which meant that his chance to pitch last year was pretty abbreviated. He did make it to the Blue Jays for six appearances and threw 6.2 innings, and there’s a good chance that if he’s not in the rotation that he could be a member of the bullpen.

He feels like a long shot to start the season in the rotation, but depending on what happens with additions and subtractions from the group, it’s possible Paulino could be a factor in the spring.

Julian Merryweather

Speaking of starters who came over in trade last season, the Blue Jays managed to get something for Josh Donaldson despite the fact that he was unable to return to the Blue Jays before the end of August, and was probably still at least a little banged up when he was sent to Cleveland.

The Blue Jays received received Julian Merryweather in return from Cleveland, who had to miss the 2018 after getting Tommy John surgery. I don’t think anyone should expect him back at the beginning of the 2019 season either, so he’s more likely a candidate for the rotation later in the season.

At 27, he’s a little bit older for a “prospect”, but that’s not always a death knell for a pitcher, especially one who has gone through Tommy John surgery. These days it almost feels like a rite of passage for hurlers, or worse, an inevitable fate, so hopefully Merryweather has gotten the arm troubles out of the way. His potential was well profiled by our own Jim Scott not long after the acquisition, and it’s definitely worth checking out.

While the return from a former MVP in Donaldson might have felt light, don’t let that fact allow you to harbour any ill will toward Merryweather. There’s a solid chance that he could end up as a big league starter, and if that ends up being the case then the Blue Jays may have done okay on the trade after all. Only time will tell, and at some point Merryweather will likely get his first chance to show us what he’s made of.

Jacob Waguespack

Personally, I was pleased the Blue Jays finally moved on from Aaron Loup when they traded him to Philadelphia last year, and it was an added bonus that they got a potentially useful arm in return.

They received right-hander Jacob Waguespack from the Phillies, a 25 year old who spent last season split between AA and AAA. In 28 appearances (including 21 starts), Waguespack wasn’t spectacular by any means, posting a record of 6-10 with a 4.80 ERA in 122 innings pitched, and a WHIP of 1.459. My guess is he’ll start the season in Triple-A Buffalo, but he could serve as rotation depth in the case of injury.

Patrick Murphy

We’re getting to the part of the list that I don’t think the Blue Jays will want to utilize in 2019, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t talent at this stage of the depth chart.

Prior to the Rule 5 draft the Blue Jays had to make some decisions on which players to protect, and one they chose to make sure stuck around was right-hander Patrick Murphy. He’s still just 23 and spent last season split between A-AA, but he’s shown enough upside that the Blue Jays wanted to protect him, and will likely allow him to move further up the ladder in 2019.

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I don’t expect that he’ll be a realistic candidate for the team on Opening Day, but if the Blue Jays face injuries early in the season then he’s a decent candidate to be called up, especially because he’s already on the 40 man roster. If you’d like to learn more about him, check out the interview and article that our own former writer Craig Borden put together a while back.

Hector Perez

I already mentioned the last one I’ll include for today’s list when talking about the Roberto Osuna trade, as Hector Perez was the third piece included along with David Paulino and Ken Giles.

The Blue Jays felt that Perez was worth protecting on their 40 man roster this year as well, so like Murphy, he could get an opportunity in 2019 if injuries strike the rotation. Last season the 22 year old pitched between High-A and Double-A, so he could certainly benefit from more experience in the minor leagues before getting the call. I feel like he’s the least likely candidate of anyone on the list, but that could just be because I don’t know a whole lot about him, and that he started last season in High-A.

As I mentioned when I started this thing, I do expect that the Blue Jays will eventually add a veteran starting pitcher or two, especially if they actually go through with trading Marcus Stroman this winter. My hope is that they keep Stroman and add a veteran to help take some of the load off of the potentially young staff, but I’m also excited to see what many of these youngsters can do with a big league opportunity.

The 2019 season is going to be a year of growth and rebuilding for the Blue Jays anyway, so they may as well see what they’ve got in their young starting options. Their top pitching prospects like Nate Pearson and Eric Pardinho may not be anywhere near MLB-ready, but that doesn’t mean that there’s no talent in the organization. Chances are we’re about to get a first-hand look at what many of these guys are capable of in 2019.