Blue Jays Prediction: Record will improve in 2019 despite the rebuild

Despite the fact that the Blue Jays are clearly in a rebuild and have lost several significant veterans, I still expect an improvement on their record in 2019.

The 2018 season was supposed to be the Blue Jays’ last ditch effort with their veteran group at proving they could contend for a World Series title. With a record of 76-86, the Blue Jays not only didn’t push for a playoff spot, but it felt like everything that could go wrong, did. As a result, the full-on rebuild has begun in Toronto and we’re going to be watching a much younger group next season.

Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, J.A. Happ, Roberto Osuna, Marco Estrada, Curtis Granderson, Steve Pearce and more are in other uniforms, which would normally add up to a pending disaster in Toronto. The lineup is going to feature maybe inexperienced big leaguers, and many of whom who will be trying to prove they belong at all at the highest level, like a Teoscar Hernandez or a Billy McKinney, not to mention the low cost free agents that will inevitably get brought in to fight for a roster spot.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays have some excellent young talent that should get to experience their first big league season, and it should be very exciting to watch even if it’s not likely to be a contending year. In fact, I’ll go on record as saying I’ll bet the 2019 Blue Jays have a better record than the 2018 version.

Allow me to explain.

Starting Pitching

This is the biggest wild card for the 2019 roster, but after taking a closer look at the way things went in 2018, I’m confident there’s a lot of room for improvement.

Starting with the holdover veterans, the Blue Jays are going to be crossing their fingers that both Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez can stay healthy and pitch to their potential next year. Neither right-hander was able to do that last season unfortunately, with Stroman posting an uncharacteristic 5.54 ERA in 19 starts, and Sanchez with a 4.89 ERA in 20 trips through the rotation.

At this point I have a lot more faith in Stroman being able to stay healthy and bounce back from his tough 2018 campaign. A year earlier he was the ace of the staff and pitched to a 3.09 ERA in 33 starts, also throwing 200+ innings for the second consecutive year. Last season he was held back by shoulder problems during spring training, and later by a nasty blister that kept him out late in the season. Assuming he’s fully healthy this year there’s a lot of good reasons to expect a bounce back campaign. I’m not sure we can say the same for Sanchez after two straight years that feel more or less lost, but the talent is still there, and again, it can’t get a whole lot worse.

There have been reports that both pitchers have been asked about a lot on the trade market, especially when it comes to Stroman. That said, I’d be truly surprised if the Blue Jays moved on from either starter, especially at this low point of their trade value, and considering the fact that they have two full years of club control remaining.

Beyond that the Blue Jays will get a full season from Ryan Borucki, and while I don’t think it’s fair to expect him to throw 30 starts and keep his ERA below 4.00, he proved last season that he belongs at the highest level. There could be a mixture of Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, or even Sam Gaviglio to start the season, and also the possibility of a free agent signing or two to add some depth.

I believe this area will improve for the Blue Jays over last year, almost regardless of who is brought in or given the opportunity. That doesn’t mean I think they can throw anybody out there, but other than J.A. Happ’s performance before he was traded and Borucki’s surprise contribution, it was a universal disappointment. Jaime Garcia (5.93 ERA in 25 appearances) was a disaster, and Marco Estrada (5.64 ERA in 28 starts) never got things going either.

The bar is not set very high, and whomever makes up the starting rotation for Charlie Montoyo in 2019 should be an improvement.

Bullpen

This is the one area that Ross Atkins and company should do the most work on this offseason, although it’s hard to say what their plans are at this relatively early stage of the winter.

Right now the Blue Jays are set to return a group that should be guaranteed to include Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera unless either is traded, and then a ton of young arms looking to grab a big league job. Some have experience and a decent chance at a spot like Oliver Drake, Joe Biagini, or even young Tim Mayza, but I’m also willing to bet that there will be several low cost free agents brought in. It worked pretty well with Tyler Clippard and John Axford last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar strategy employed. It especially makes sense when you consider that the Blue Jays could flip any relievers in July who were signed to short term deals and bring back additional minor league asset.

It’s tough to look at projections for the bullpen for 2019 without knowing who will make up the group, but we can look back at what last year’s relievers accomplished, and what they could be missing out on.

Roberto Osuna is a tough one to lose in terms of performance, but the Blue Jays really didn’t get that from him last season anyway in the midst of his suspension and legal troubles. Regardless of how you feel about Osuna, there’s a good chance the Blue Jays are going to get more out of Giles in 2019 than they did from Osuna in 2018. The long term might be a different story, but that also remains to be seen.

Clippard’s 3.67 ERA in 68.2 innings had a lot of value, and it’s possible they could reach out to him about returning. Seunghwan Oh was excellent, but he was traded last July, as was Axford and his useful contribution. Beyond that though, I don’t think the Blue Jays are going to miss Aaron Loup in their bullpen even if he’s replaced by just Mayza. There’s also good reason to believe that Biagini (6.00 in 72.0 IP) and Danny Barnes (5.71 ERA in 41.2 IP) should be bounce back candidates as well.

By no means do I expect this to be an elite group next season, especially without knowing who will make up the bullpen, but I think it’s possible we could see improvement here as well. They had a 4.45 ERA as a bullpen unit last season, which feels like a bar that could be met with a few shrewd additions.

Outfield

If there’s one area that I would predict the Blue Jays take a step back in 2019, it would be the outfield. That said, the bar isn’t set so high that it can’t be reached or even easily surpassed.

Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce and their solid veteran contributions won’t be around anymore, which will open up some playing time for younger options. The same could happen to Kevin Pillar yet this winter as well, as there have been reports linking him to a few other teams in recent weeks, such as the San Francisco Giants. Even if he’s never going to be the offensive contributor we’ve all hoped for, his defence has still brought a lot of value to the table.

Whether Pillar is still around or not, the rest of the group will be made up of some combination of Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Dwight Smith Jr., and possibly other young options like Jonathan Davis, Anthony Alford, or even recent outfield convert, Cavan Biggio. While I wouldn’t expect an MVP contender in the group above, it’s possible we see some significant improvements from year to year, especially from Hernandez, who has looked good in Winter Ball recently.

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If Grichuk performs the way he did in the second half for an entire season, then he’ll have a lot more people taking him seriously as a legitimate middle of the order hitter. Despite the fact that he turned things around to turn 2018 into a good season for the most part, I expect he’ll improve over the full 2019 campaign. I also think it’s entirely possible that McKinney and/or Smith could contribute what Granderson did last year, at least from a numbers perspective. There’s also still the possibility that Atkins adds to the group in free agency.

Until we know for sure what’s happening with Pillar and see what the outfield depth charts looks like it’s hard to truly judge. All things considered though, I sincerely doubt there will be a big step backwards, and there’s even the potential for improvement.

Looking at the sum of the parts, I wouldn’t argue that the Blue Jays will be a contender in 2019, even if I’d like to see nothing more. However, when you compare the results of the 2018 season to the potential output from the new group of players, it’s not that hard to see potential improvement, even in the middle of a rebuilding year.