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Blue Jays Prediction: Record will improve in 2019 despite the rebuild

By Chris Henderson

TORONTO, ON - JULY 3: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. #13 of the Toronto Blue Jays is congratulated by Marcus Stroman #6 after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning during MLB game action against the New York Mets at Rogers Centre on July 3, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JULY 3: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. #13 of the Toronto Blue Jays is congratulated by Marcus Stroman #6 after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning during MLB game action against the New York Mets at Rogers Centre on July 3, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 15: Ken Giles #51 and Danny Jansen #9 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 15, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 15: Ken Giles #51 and Danny Jansen #9 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 15, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Bullpen

This is the one area that Ross Atkins and company should do the most work on this offseason, although it’s hard to say what their plans are at this relatively early stage of the winter.

Right now the Blue Jays are set to return a group that should be guaranteed to include Ken Giles and Ryan Tepera unless either is traded, and then a ton of young arms looking to grab a big league job. Some have experience and a decent chance at a spot like Oliver Drake, Joe Biagini, or even young Tim Mayza, but I’m also willing to bet that there will be several low cost free agents brought in. It worked pretty well with Tyler Clippard and John Axford last year, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar strategy employed. It especially makes sense when you consider that the Blue Jays could flip any relievers in July who were signed to short term deals and bring back additional minor league asset.

It’s tough to look at projections for the bullpen for 2019 without knowing who will make up the group, but we can look back at what last year’s relievers accomplished, and what they could be missing out on.

Roberto Osuna is a tough one to lose in terms of performance, but the Blue Jays really didn’t get that from him last season anyway in the midst of his suspension and legal troubles. Regardless of how you feel about Osuna, there’s a good chance the Blue Jays are going to get more out of Giles in 2019 than they did from Osuna in 2018. The long term might be a different story, but that also remains to be seen.

Clippard’s 3.67 ERA in 68.2 innings had a lot of value, and it’s possible they could reach out to him about returning. Seunghwan Oh was excellent, but he was traded last July, as was Axford and his useful contribution. Beyond that though, I don’t think the Blue Jays are going to miss Aaron Loup in their bullpen even if he’s replaced by just Mayza. There’s also good reason to believe that Biagini (6.00 in 72.0 IP) and Danny Barnes (5.71 ERA in 41.2 IP) should be bounce back candidates as well.

By no means do I expect this to be an elite group next season, especially without knowing who will make up the bullpen, but I think it’s possible we could see improvement here as well. They had a 4.45 ERA as a bullpen unit last season, which feels like a bar that could be met with a few shrewd additions.

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