Blue Jays: Which potential free agents could be of interest next winter?

While I don’t think the Blue Jays will be terribly aggressive this offseason, I could see things being a lot different a year from now in free agency. Who might be available if the Blue Jays are seriously shopping by then?

I feel like a bit of a broken record lately when I say that the Blue Jays likely won’t be big shoppers this year in free agency, but I really do believe that’ll be the case. Sure, there are reports that Ross Atkins and company are interested in Dallas Keuchel, but it takes two to tango, and the Blue Jays are probably at least a year away from being serious bidders in the free agency market. I’ve been wrong before, but that’s just how I see things playing out.

That said, I could see the situation changing an awful lot in a year or two, and a lot will depend on their development of their young talent. We’re poised to hopefully witness the first full seasons from Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Danny Jansen, Ryan Borucki, and the eventual promotion of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s not all of the talent in the system either, as there are several more on the way including Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Nate Pearson, Eric Pardinho, and many more potential big league assets. They’re still just prospects, but the future appears bright in Toronto.

If everything goes right for the youngsters this year, it’s possible that the free agent market could have a very different level of interest in coming to Toronto. There are perceived downsides like being the only Canadian team, or playing on turf in the Rogers Centre, but ultimately players care about two factors more than anything else: Getting paid, and winning.

The Blue Jays should have plenty of payroll in the next few seasons, especially as they eventually shed the big contracts that remain for Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, and even Kendrys Morales. That said, they’re already in a position where they should have the money they need to spend, it’s just a matter of building the team the right way, and making sure there is proper playing time for the young players to develop.

With all of that said, I expect the Blue Jays to be more serious buyers a year from now. Let’s have a look at the potential free agents that could be available, assuming they don’t sign extensions before hitting the open market.

Starting Pitching

While the bullpen is full of question marks at the moment as well, I would argue that the starting rotation is the biggest area of need for the Blue Jays this winter. They have enough arms to potentially fill out a rotation, but there are a lot of question marks around a group that includes Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Borucki, and youngsters like Thomas Pannone, Sean Reid-Foley, and Sam Gaviglio.

It’s possible that they could have an emergence from the group above, or other young arms could force their way into the picture. However, with a talented position player group on the way, it makes the most sense to me to spend on the rotation.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield did a “Way too early free agent predictions” piece the other day, which laid out the top 30 options that could hit the market, again, if they’re not extended before then. The list of arms is impressive at least in career resume.

We’re talking about a group that includes Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander, Zack Wheeler, Rick Porcello, Miles Mikolas, Cole Hamels, Jhoulys Chacin, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Sonny Gray. That list will get whittled down a bit with extensions, but there is a lot of talent to choose from.

Of course, the Blue Jays would have to make an enticing enough offer to lure some of those players away from their current situations, but the prospect of joining the next generation of Blue Jays could be of legitimate interest to free agents going forward.

In an ideal world Borucki would continue to show he’s a legitimate rotation piece, and both Stroman and Sanchez would be healthy and reach their full potential. In that case the need for high-end pitching wouldn’t be as great, but with both Sanchez and Stroman due to be free agents after the 2020 season, it’s a situation that will eventually need to be addressed.

There’s also the possibility that the rotation could be addressed through the trade market, especially as the Blue Jays continue to stock pile useful minor league pieces. Still, it’s fun to think about a Bumgarner or Wheeler joining the kids in Toronto.

Relief Pitching

Going back to ESPN’s potential top 30 list, there is actually only one reliever that’s listed and that’s Dellin Betances. Sean Doolittle and Kenley Jansen are both possibilities as well, but each have options that make them highly unlikely to hit the market.

The bullpen is always the greatest area of flux, especially in the last few years in Toronto. The Blue Jays’ front office hasn’t really spent big on a reliever since the ill-fated signing of B.J. Ryan in 2005. They’ve paid a decent salary for relievers, sure, but they haven’t went out and spent big on a shut down closer or anything since.

I don’t expect that to change in the next few years, or really ever under the watch of Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins. A lot will depend on the develop of both their starting pitching and their position player core, which could conceivably give them the budget they’d need to spend big on the bullpen in the future.

That said, there are also a lot of talented arms in the Blue Jays system, even if their pitching prospects don’t get the same attention that the hitters do. Many of the biggest names are developing as starters, but it’s entirely possible that several of them could end up as relievers, especially since that isn’t perceived in the same negative way that it used to be. If you’re a good reliever that isn’t a closer then you can still get paid, which wasn’t the case even a decade ago.

https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1068192749105672192

In 2018 we’re going to see a real audition for Ken Giles in Toronto, and whether or not the Blue Jays feel he’s worth investing in for the long term. He’s estimated to make around 6.6 million in arbitration this winter, so he’s not going to be cheap going forward if he has a good year in 2019. Again though, the Blue Jays will have budget room, so if he does bounce back the way it appears he may, then he could be a candidate to stick around.

Beyond that and maybe Ryan Tepera, the future is pretty up in the arm with bullpen arms. Guys like Joe Biagini, Danny Barnes, Tim Mayza, and others will get a real audition next year as well, but don’t be surprised if Atkins brings in several veteran pieces to compete in spring training and put together a patchwork group.

I know I’ve basically said a whole lot of nothing here, but it’s the bullpen. What do you want from me?

Position Players

We finally get to what should be the strength of the future, at least according to the hype around their minor league system.

In an ideal world their infield will be set up for the future with the likes of Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen, and others like Cavan Biggio, Reese McGuire, Kevin Smith, and Jordan Groshans. The depth is very deep in the Blue Jays’ system, and it could allow Atkins to get creative in making trades down the line.

For now the Blue Jays will have to exercise some patience and see what they’ve got in their potential minor league stars. While it’s fun to dream on an entirely home grown group of superstars, that’s not going to happen. Not all of the above mentioned names are going to be stars, so the Blue Jays will need to give each of them some time to develop and see what they’ve got before they decide if they need to invest in the infield.

The outfield could be a different story, especially a year from now. The 2019 season looks like it’ll include a group lead by Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, and maybe Dwight Smith Jr. However, I don’t think Pillar will be in Toronto any longer than another year, and Grichuk is a free agent after 2020. Hernandez is still a question mark with the glove in the outfield, and the Blue Jays really don’t know what they have in either McKinney or Smith. Biggio recently added the outfield to his defensive repertoire with work in the Arizona Fall League, but it’s hard to say where the group could be in a year or two.

With that in mind, it’s possible that Atkins could entertain some of the possible options next winter. The group could include J.D. Martinez (if you still view him as an outfielder), Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Hicks, Yasiel Puig, and maybe Adam Eaton if his option isn’t exercised. I don’t know that the Red Sox are going to let Martinez go anywhere, but there are some other interesting pieces in that group. Hicks has transformed himself into a legit two-way star when healthy, Puig still seems like he hasn’t hit his potential, and Eaton could be a sneaky good pick up due to his struggles to stay healthy.

There isn’t a game changer like Bryce Harper that will be available, but that likely wouldn’t have mattered for the Blue Jays anyway.