Blue Jays: Several vets that shouldn’t be traded at lowest value

While the Blue Jays may explore trading even more veteran players on their roster to open up playing time in 2019, they should be wary of moving an asset at a low point of value.

It’s no secret that the Blue Jays are going to be going through a rebuild over the next couple of seasons, and that fact will certainly play into the decisions that Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro make going forward.

We watched the Blue Jays start to take steps in this direction late in the 2018 season, giving regular playing time to talented prospects in favour of the veterans on the roster. For example, Russell Martin barely saw the field at all in September, which allowed John Gibbons to get a good look at both Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire, and to give them valuable MLB experience.

That sort of strategy makes a lot of sense for the long term picture, and I would imagine that Martin won’t be the only veteran who sacrifices playing time in 2019, assuming he’s still wearing a Blue Jays jersey on Opening Day. However, despite the fact that the Blue Jays finished with just 73 wins last season, there are still some talented pieces on the roster that could perform a lot better in 2019 and significantly raise their value, both to the Blue Jays and on the trade market.

While I’m in favour of Atkins and Shapiro making room for the talented minor leaguers and starting to build the next competitive roster in Toronto, the timing of that transition can be imperfect, especially with veterans that may or may not be around by the time the rebuild is over. The most logical thing to do is to trade players that fit that description, however, it’s not always that easy.

In fact, I would argue that the Blue Jays should hold off on trading a few pieces this winter, and either hope they bounce back and establish themselves as a part of the team going forward, or build their trade value to the point of maximum return. Let’s have a look at which players could fit such a description.

Marcus Stroman

This one feels a little weird, mostly because Stroman still feels like a very young man to me, and could absolutely fit as part of the next generation in Toronto. That said, the talented right-hander only has two years of club control remaining, which could lead to the front office being open to moving on from the “Stro Show”, even if they will need starting pitching next season.

There will be plenty of GMs around the game that will be looking for a buy-low/bounce back candidate, and Stroman has as good a chance as anyone to be  just that. He was brutal by his standards this past year, making just 19 starts around shoulder and blister issues, and pitching to 5.54 ERA in just 102.1 innings. When you consider that he topped 200 innings the two previous seasons and posted a 3.09 ERA in 2017, it was disappointing to say the least.

There’s a good chance that at least one team will come to the Blue Jays with a tempting offer for Stroman, but right now the best thing to do would be to let him enter the 2019 season in Toronto, and really show how valuable he actually is. Last season’s numbers don’t reflect what he’s capable of, or who he is, and it would be a shame to see him traded at such a low point of value.

It would also be a shame to see him traded at all if you ask me, so in my mind the idea of moving him this winter should be pretty much off the table. Unless someone comes along and is willing to offer a return that reflects the pitcher he was in 2017, I don’t see Stroman going anywhere any time soon, or maybe at all. And if the Blue Jays do decide to make him available, I hope they keep in mind that the potential return on a (possible) frontline starter with a 1.5 seasons left will be greater than how he’s perceived right now, even with two full years of contract control.

Devon Travis

I’m fully away that the Blue Jays have a potential logjam in their infield, especially up the middle, and that Devon Travis could be a potential trade piece. The presence of other options like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Brandon Drury, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte (if he’s not dealt himself), and more talent in the minor league system, make it possible that Travis is expendable.

That said, he’s still a potentially valuable piece, even if some of the shine from a couple seasons ago has worn off. He hit .304/.361/.498 in 62 games as a rookie in 2015, and hit .300/.332/.454 in 101 games the following season. He looked like the second baseman of the future, but like the previous two players mentioned above, he’s struggled with extensive injuries since arriving in the big leagues.

He was able to avoid the disabled list altogether in 2018, but unfortunately it didn’t come with a return to form for the 27 year old. He managed to play in 103 games in the big leagues and several more during a stint in the minors early in the season, but slashed just .232/.275/.381 in 357 at bats. My guess is that both Travis and the Blue Jays are hoping he can build on a healthy season and get back to being the dangerous hitter he was in his first two seasons in Toronto.

The problem, of course, may be in finding him regular playing time next season. I wouldn’t suggest that the Blue Jays sacrifice Gurriel Jr’s playing in order to raise Travis’ trade value, but I wouldn’t mind seeing them both on the field together, especially early in the year. I’m among those that believe that Gurriel will be a quality big league shortstop with enough experience, which would open up more playing time at second for Travis.

I’ll understand if the Blue Jays ultimately move on this season, especially when you compare Travis’ situation to Stroman or Sanchez. However, it feels like the Blue Jays would be giving up on an asset at a lower value than he’s truly worth. Ideally he could come into the season and hit .300 in the first half, peaking the interest of teams around the league that could use some help at second base.

It remains to be seen if he’ll get that opportunity back in Toronto again in 2019, but my hope is that’s exactly how it plays out.

Russell Martin

The further I get into this piece, the more likely it is that the candidates will be moved this offseason. However, I think there’s a solid argument that the Blue Jays should hang on to Russell Martin for at least the start of the 2019 season, even if both Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire look like they’re ready for semi-regular duty.

To begin with, Martin would be an ideal mentor for the pair of young catchers, even if it would be a little difficult to carry three catchers. The Blue Jays could elect to start one of them in Buffalo at the beginning of the year, or use Martin in more of a utility role, much like we saw at times in 2018. They would have to make some other trades to make it work (see: the infield), but it’s possible they could make it fly.

Beyond that, I really do believe Martin has more left in the tank than we saw from him in 2018, and I feel like he’s someone who could actually garner a return in the right circumstances. He’s got a long history of playoff pedigree, and the potential to be an asset on both sides of the ball, even when he’ll be at the age of 36 by Opening Day.

There’s also the part about his 20 million dollar salary next season, which would lower as the season wears on if he’s still in Toronto. If he’s performing then another team may be able to swallow a bigger portion of his contract, because as it stands the Blue Jays would have to pay down a significant amount in order to move him. Waiting a few months could make the idea of sending some money with him easier for the front office to swallow as well, which would improve the prospect return.

Kevin Pillar

Other than Yangervis Solarte, to me the most likely veteran to get traded this winter Kevin Pillar. That said, he also fits the description of “selling low” if they were to move on him now.

The Blue Jays may decide they can make a change because of the other depth options they’ve got on their 40 man roster, and coming in their minor league system. Randal Grichuk established himself as a full-time outfielder, and both Billy McKinney and Teoscar Hernandez are going to get a shot next season to show what their long term value could be. There are also plenty of depth options in their minor league system, so the Blue Jays aren’t lacking for replacements.

The difference between Pillar and the rest of the players I’ve listed above is, unfortunately, I don’t know that there’s a lot of reason to believe he’ll improve in 2019. We’ve all been waiting for an offensive breakout from him for years, and unfortunately it’s just happened. In fact, this past season was his worst on offence as a full-time player, as he slashed just .252/.282/.426.

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Perhaps more discouraging, his defensive numbers regressed from the “Superman” that made spectacular catches seem pretty routine at the Rogers Centre. According to baseballreference.com, he was worth 2.7, 2.8, and 1.9 dWAR over the last three seasons, before coming in at a mark of just 0.3 this past year. The fact that he’s getting a little more expensive as he’s further along in arbitration doesn’t help either.

He’ll be 30 next season, and while I’ve long been an admirer of his blue collar presence on the diamond, I’m not sure it’s enough anymore. If I believed that the long awaited offensive breakout was still coming, I’d absolutely advocate for keeping him around for another year before looking for a trade. However, in this case I would likely make the move for the sake of making room for higher ceiling players that are ready for the highest level, even if it’s too bad that he never quite achieved the potential so many of us saw in him at times.

I really do believe the Blue Jays will be active in the trade market this offseason, even if they aren’t able to move all of the contracts that the front office may want to. In the case of the players we’ve discussed here though, I believe patience will be a virtue for Ross Atkins, and hopefully things will look a lot different by next summer.