Blue Jays: So much for trading Marco Estrada

It seemed like a no-brainer to trade Marco Estrada before the end of August, but unfortunately the veteran hasn’t been truly healthy, or very effective lately.

For the most part I’ve been a defender of Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro this season, as I felt like they gave this roster enough pieces to be a lot better than they’ve actually been in 2018. That said, if they had had known they’d get so little from their key players like Josh Donaldson, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Roberto Osuna, I’m sure the front office would have started the rebuild a season earlier. It happens, but I actually don’t blame them for this season’s failures, even if I understand why someone reading this might disagree.

That said, if I have a criticism of the front office it’s in their failure to move some expiring contracts before they lost all value. There are still a few days before the August waiver deadline, so perhaps things will change, but it doesn’t look like there’s enough time or leverage remaining for Atkins to work with. The most obvious case would be with Donaldson, who in hindsight should have been traded over the winter.

It’s possible we see him and maybe Curtis Granderson moved in the next few days, but there is one veteran the team has missed the boat on altogether, veteran starter Marco Estrada.

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The front office took a gamble on Estrada after an inconsistent 2017 season, and it looked like a worthwhile idea on a one year contract. He could have provided valuable innings if the team had contended this year, and if not then he would serve as a prime candidate to get traded during the summer. Unfortunately it hasn’t worked like that at all, and after Sunday’s stinker I doubt he’ll be going anywhere.

In order to move Estrada, a contender would have to view him as an upgrade over what they’ve currently got, and that might be a tough sell right now. He does have a recent history of success, including during the playoffs with the Jays in 2015 and 2016, but his recent performance on the mound has been anything but encouraging. Overall he’s sporting a frustrating 7-10 record with a 5.18 ERA and a 1.367 WHIP, but his last few starts have been even more damaging to his trade value.

He had a very effective outing against the Mariners on August 4th to begin the month, but since then he’s allowed 17 runs over 19.1 innings pitched across four starts. Sunday may have been his last chance to change rival GM’s minds, and instead he lasted just two innings, giving up five earned runs on seven hits and four walks. The Phillies also got him for three home runs in the abbreviated outing, something that he’s long battled with as a weakness in his game. To make matters even worse, the Mexican-born veteran admitted that his wonky back hasn’t been feeling great either.

Add it all up and you’ve got a player who is going to be next to impossible to trade, unless there are a few significant injuries among the contenders in the next few days. Most clubs would welcome a starting pitching upgrade, and many of them still need that boost, but without recent evidence that Estrada can provide as much, he’s almost assuredly staying put.

It’s a shame because the Blue Jays will more than likely see him walk as a free agent this winter without ever getting a chance to collect a return for his services. You can’t expect that with every player, but Estrada was good enough to finish 10th in Cy Young voting in 2015, and earned an All-Star appearance in 2016, so there was definitely value in the recent past.

It’s all but washed away, at least for the time being, and unfortunately the timing couldn’t have been a lot worse for the Blue Jays, and even for Estrada. He’ll look to finish out the season strong and build his value as he enters free agency, assuming the Blue Jays continue to give him a regular turn in the rotation. That’s not even a guarantee with the focus on the future, and Jaime Garcia learned that the hard way when he was designated for assignment over the weekend, so trading Estrada really would have been in everyone’s best interest.

It’s a shame, but it looks like the window of opportunity to find a taker has all but passed them by. Here’s hoping I’m wrong, but Atkins has less than five days to make it happen, and the chances aren’t looking good.