Blue Jays might win the Astros trade with Ken Giles alone

While it’s a shame the Blue Jays had to sell Roberto Osuna at his lowest point of value, they got an excellent return given the circumstances, and there’s a chance that Ken Giles could end up as more valuable on his own.

It’s been nearly a week since the big trade between the Astros and Blue Jays went down sending Roberto Osuna to Houston, and three pitchers returning to Toronto. Those three arms included minor leaguers David Paulino and Hector Perez, as well as the Astros former closer, Ken Giles.

It’s been heavily noted that the Astros took a big risk with this deal, for a number of reasons. They’re banking on Osuna’s ability to be the closer that they need, and to do it in a season that’s been nothing but personal and professional turmoil. Granted it’s been brought on by an alleged self-imposed incident, but they’re not getting the best version of Osuna right now regardless of what actually happened. Even if the court case was settled you’d have to think that he would be somewhat distracted, but that’s not even the case, as it remains an ongoing issue.

This “problem” that the Blue Jays were set to deal with has now become the Astros’ burden to carry, and a distraction that Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro are glad to be rid of in Toronto, even if losing Osuna stings. Of course, that might have happened for them anyway depending on how his court case is ultimately resolved, and this way they’ve got three assets to bank on instead. They also took a big step in the court of public opinion, at least with a great deal of writers and fans around the game anyway.

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Getting back to the return, Paulino and Perez could both end up as big league arms, but it’s Ken Giles that intrigues me the most. The 27 year old still has plenty of youth on his side, and his contract situation isn’t that much different than Osuna’s. Giles has two years of club control remaining on his contract, and will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time after the 2020 season. Osuna was on the same timeline, but because of all the games he’s missed this season, his service time will allow the Astros to hang on to him for an additional year.

Giles is also far from a slouch when it comes to being a closer, and has a pretty solid history of success in the role. Granted, he struggled badly enough this year that he was demoted to get things figured out, but this is a power arm that saved 34 games last year with a 2.30 ERA in 63 appearances. He also picked up 15 saves in each of the 2016 and 2015 seasons with the Astros pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 69 appearances as a 24 year old in 2015. He’s shown he can flourish when he’s executing his pitches.

Relievers are a volatile bunch, and nobody should be surprised if Giles is able to find his form again with his new club. There are definitely no issues with his arm, as he topped out at 98.3 MPH on Friday night in his Blue Jays’ debut, so it’ll be a matter of building trust in his stuff again, and with his new manager and teammates.

His two years of club control remaining also work well as a timeline with the Blue Jays as they enter a potential rebuild. If he’s able to find his form and re-join the elite ranks of AL closers, the Blue Jays will have that opportunity for him, and will be happy to reap the benefits in the short term, and maybe even keep him around under the right circumstances. If he can’t return to those levels, there is no big commitment to worry about in terms of contract years or dollars.

It was a risk well worth taking, and one the Blue Jays’ front office should be applauded for putting together. Sure, Osuna’s talent likely exceeds Giles’, but when you add the extra prospects into the equation, and the fact that we don’t know what Osuna’s legal future even holds yet, the Blue Jays may have won this deal even if it were a one for one.

Only time will tell, but even after a week I’m still a big fan of the trade for a number of reasons, including what I believe will benefit the Blue Jays on the field. Giles’ debut may not have been perfect, but he flashed the potential for fans to see, and hopefully he’ll be able to make Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro look even smarter than they already do with this trade.