Blue Jays: J.A. Happ and the Yu Darvish Trade Model

Cubs

The Cubs hypothetical offer would look a lot like the New York Yankees offer, three right-handed pitching prospects. Jose Albertos is the key name in the deal, while Erich Uelmen and Trevor Clifton would sweeten the pot.

After a great 2017 season in Low-A—where he posted a 2.86 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 10.9 K/9 in eight starts—the righty has struggled greatly in 2018. Through nine appearances and four starts in Single-A, the hurler has allowed a dreadful 18.69 ERA, 9.59 FIP, 11.77 K/9, and 22.15 BB/9.

The Cubs prospect’s line drive and ground ball rates have remained steady between this year and last year, though. This suggests that the young pitcher is struggling with his control, and when he finds it, he will be right back on track. At just 19 years old, Fangraphs projects the young pitcher’s ETA as 2020—so he has plenty of time to resolve these command issues.

Erich Eulemen is not that attractive of a prospect at this time, either. At 22-years-old he is not old for High-A, but he is not young, either. Through three starts he has allowed a 3.18 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 5.56 K/9, and 4.76 BB/9. While his ERA is pretty good, his FIP, K/9, and BB/9 are all alarming.

It should be noted, however, that his line drive rate has been excellent this year: allowing a tiny rate of 11.8%. This is well below the major league average, which usually sits between 20%-22%. As well, last year, in 11 starts, he posted a much better 9.27 K/9—which suggests that his low strikeout rate is largely a result of small sample size.

Trevor Clifton may be the most immediately exciting prospect the Blue Jays would receive in this hypothetical trade. The twenty three year old is still quite young for Triple-A, where he has posted a 4.23 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 8.13 K/9, and 2.93 BB/9 in six appearances and four starts. As well, in twelve starts at Double-A, the righty maintained a 2.86 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 7.15 K/9, and 3.65 BB/9.

The right-handed hurler seems to have skated by somewhat luckily this year. In Double-A he posted a 25% line drive rate, while in Triple-A he allowed an even worse 28% line drive rate. Furthermore, batters are clearly just missing some of his pitches, as he has allowed high infield fly ball rates at both levels.