Blue Jays: J.A. Happ and the Yu Darvish Trade Model

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HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 25: J.A. Happ #33 of the Toronto Blue Jays pitches in the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on June 25, 2018 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Having the best piece at a trade deadline is an interesting, encouraging, and distressing prospect for a major league baseball team. Despite his recent struggles, J.A. Happ is still the best starting arm available at the trade deadline this year.

Many Blue Jays fans are faced with taking sides on this controversial issue. To help everyone make an informed decision, I found the closest comparable to last year’s trade market for the left-hander.

Yu Darvish was traded on the deadline to the Los Angeles Dodgers by the Texas Rangers. The Japanese Phenom netted the Rangers three prospects in return: Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis. In terms of system ranking, these were the Dodgers fourth, seventeenth, and twenty-seventh overall prospects.

The Blue Jays are in the same spot the Rangers were in last year, and they should cash in on this opportunity. Before his blow-up against the Yankees, Happ was a few points off of Darvish’s ERA, FIP, and K/9. As well, like the Blue Jays pitcher, Darvish was the top pitching option available on the market. Thus it’s reasonable to assume that the Jays could net a similar return for their left-handed hurler’s services, even if Happ doesn’t have quite the career resume.

So far, the Blue Jays have been connected to the Yankees, Mariners, Cubs, and Brewers in J.A. Happ trade talks. Obviously each farm system is different, so each deal would not be exactly the same. However, just to give a sense of what each team would provide, here are four sample trades using the Darvish trade model.

Yankees

The Yankees would offer three intriguing right-handed pitching prospects in return for J.A. Happ. The Bomber’s would hypothetically let go of Chance Adams, Glenn Otto, and Ben Heller. Adams and Otto are both starters, while Heller is a bullpen arm.

Chance Adams is just twenty-three years old and currently plays for New York’s Triple-A affiliate, the Trenton Thunder. In sixteen starts, the righty has posted a 4.82 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 9.5 K/9, and 4.46 BB/9.

While his surface numbers are not strong this year, it should be noted that he posted a 2.89 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 21 starts last year in Triple-A. With concerning walk numbers and a poor 2018 season, Adams is not done developing. However, it is reasonable to expect him to make a major league team in 2019.

Glenn Otto is a much less immediate prospect. The right-handed hurler has managed a 3.48 ERA and 5.20 FIP in just two starts at Single-A. However, through two rookie-ball teams and a High-A affiliate last year, he posted a 1.35 ERA—with a great 13.5 K/9.

While he has not struck out as many batters in Single-A, posting a 17.8% K-rate, he has posted eye popping numbers everywhere else. In 2017, on three different teams, he posted a 42.9%, 66.7%, and 37.3% K-rate.

As well, while he was a closer for Rice University, he recorded 22 strikeouts in 172.1 career innings—he clearly has some nasty stuff. It should be noted that the Yankees see him as a starter this year, but he did pitch out of the bullpen five times in 2017. Whether he is a bullpen pitcher or starter affects his ETA for the majors. However, a pitcher with extreme strikeout stuff is always intriguing.

Finally, the hypothetical Yankees package would be completed with Ben Heller—who is a risk. The right-hander was dominant in the Yankees Triple-A and major league bullpen last year. However, this year he has landed on the 60-day DL, forced to undergo Tommy John surgery.

This surgery will be a major red flag for the organization. Despite his great numbers last year—2.88 ERA and 13.1 K/9 in 41 games in Triple-A—he requires some hoping and wishing. However, this may make him more available from the Yankees in conjunction with the rest of these prospects. After recovering from his surgery, the right-hander would most likely be ready for Triple-A Buffalo or the majors next year.

Mariners

The Mariners could offer a collection of different prospects for J.A. Happ. The team would hypothetically offer Julio Rodriguez (OF), Seth Elledge (RHP), and Cesar Izturis Jr. (2B/SS). This package would be very young, but also very good for the Blue Jays.

Julio Rodriguez should be the name that the Blue Jays push the hardest for in any potential trade with the Mariners. Through 30 games at rookie ball, the seventeen year old has posted a .330/.426/.478 slash line with one bomb and 28 driven in. His numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as he has been aided by a .402 BABIP.

Adding to his eye-popping slash line, he also owns great strikeout and walk numbers. While playing for the Dominican Summer League Mariners he has posted a good 16.9% K-rate with a great 11.8% BB-rate. In addition, he is quite fast, maintaining an 8.1 speed score and 1.0 wSB.

Seth Elledge is intriguing, but not quite as exciting as Rodriguez would be. The righty has dominated High-A out of the bullpen, posting a .087 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 12.77 K/9, and eight saves in 26 games.

Elledge’s underlying numbers are also quite good, posting a 54.4% GB rate and 17.5% line drive rate. While he would need more time to develop, he seems poised for a second half promotion to Double-A, which leaves him at least another year to develop in the minors before being ready for the big leagues.

Cesar Izturis Jr. could be another young prospect to add to the team of legacies the Blue Jays are apparently compiling in the minor leagues. Interestingly, his father, Cesar Izturis, played 46 games with the Jays in 2001. Izturis Jr. has not hit well in Triple-A this year, posting a .200/.250/.333 slash line in five games. As well, he has struck out a ton, maintaining a 31.3% k-rate and a 6.3% BB-rate.

Assigning an eighteen year old to Triple-A feels aggressive by the Mariners. So, while his initial numbers are weak, a more conservative development plan may make him a good utility player or more one day.

Cubs

The Cubs hypothetical offer would look a lot like the New York Yankees offer, three right-handed pitching prospects. Jose Albertos is the key name in the deal, while Erich Uelmen and Trevor Clifton would sweeten the pot.

After a great 2017 season in Low-A—where he posted a 2.86 ERA, 2.69 FIP, and 10.9 K/9 in eight starts—the righty has struggled greatly in 2018. Through nine appearances and four starts in Single-A, the hurler has allowed a dreadful 18.69 ERA, 9.59 FIP, 11.77 K/9, and 22.15 BB/9.

The Cubs prospect’s line drive and ground ball rates have remained steady between this year and last year, though. This suggests that the young pitcher is struggling with his control, and when he finds it, he will be right back on track. At just 19 years old, Fangraphs projects the young pitcher’s ETA as 2020—so he has plenty of time to resolve these command issues.

Erich Eulemen is not that attractive of a prospect at this time, either. At 22-years-old he is not old for High-A, but he is not young, either. Through three starts he has allowed a 3.18 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 5.56 K/9, and 4.76 BB/9. While his ERA is pretty good, his FIP, K/9, and BB/9 are all alarming.

It should be noted, however, that his line drive rate has been excellent this year: allowing a tiny rate of 11.8%. This is well below the major league average, which usually sits between 20%-22%. As well, last year, in 11 starts, he posted a much better 9.27 K/9—which suggests that his low strikeout rate is largely a result of small sample size.

Trevor Clifton may be the most immediately exciting prospect the Blue Jays would receive in this hypothetical trade. The twenty three year old is still quite young for Triple-A, where he has posted a 4.23 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 8.13 K/9, and 2.93 BB/9 in six appearances and four starts. As well, in twelve starts at Double-A, the righty maintained a 2.86 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 7.15 K/9, and 3.65 BB/9.

The right-handed hurler seems to have skated by somewhat luckily this year. In Double-A he posted a 25% line drive rate, while in Triple-A he allowed an even worse 28% line drive rate. Furthermore, batters are clearly just missing some of his pitches, as he has allowed high infield fly ball rates at both levels.

Brewers

Our own Hayden Godfrey has already discussed what the Brew-Crew’s front office could offer the Blue Jays in return for Happ’s services. However, to complete the exercise, Milwaukee would offer Luis Ortiz, Jake Gatwood, and Larry Ernesto, according to the Darvish model.

Luis Ortiz was mentioned in Hayden’s aforementioned article, and he may be an attractive prospect to the Blue Jays. The righty, according to Fangraphs, has an above average fastball and slider—with an average-to-slightly-above-average curveball and change. Playing in his age-22 season in Double-A, the right-handed hurler has posted a 4.41 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 9.37 K/9, and 2.94 BB/9 in twelve games and seven starts.

Ortiz has posted decent line drive and ground ball rates of 18.3% and 45.1%, respectively. Finally, his 11.5% HR/FB rate suggests that his ERA should dip down in the later months of the year. His xFIP currently sits at 3.60, which gives a good picture of where his ERA may drop to by the end of the year.

While the prospect is listed as a 2018 ETA, his year in Double-A suggests that he still needs time. However, with more time out of the bullpen this year it seems the Brewers view him as a bullpen option later this year.

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Jake Gatewood is a significantly less enticing prospect than Luis Ortiz. The 22-year-old is a former first round pick by the Brewers, and he has failed, somewhat, to meet that potential. The prospect plays a mixture of first base and shortstop—and he is the first player I’ve ever seen listed as a 1B/SS.

Through 80 games in double-A this year, Gatewood has hit for a .248/.301/.446 slash line with a .331 wOBA and 106 WRC+. Gatewood’s wOBA and WRC+ confirms what is evident—he is a remarkably average player.

The Brewers prospect’s strikeout and walk rates are also very concerning, through 332 plate appearances he has posted an awful 29.5% K-rate and 6.6% BB-rate. Finally, with a poor 3.7 speed rating, he should not be expected to add much on the defensive side of the ball at short—which is confirmed by his 12 errors in 52 games.

Finally, to complete the final trade in this exercise, the Brewers would sweeten the pot with an outfielder, Larry Ernesto. The seventeen year old is playing just his first year in professional ball, assigned to rookie ball this year. The outfielder has hit for a .264/.322/.418 slash line with a .352 wOBA and 107 WRC+.

While he is still very young, and this should be taken into account, his strikeout and walk numbers are terrible, posting a 31.4% K-rate and 6.6% BB-rate. Finally, he has decent speed with a 6.6 speed score, but has been untrustworthy on the base paths, scoring a -1.0 wSB.

Next: Stuck between a rock and a hard place with Osuna

While these these trades may never be rumoured, confirmed, or even discussed, the type of return for J.A. Happ should be clear. Obviously with different farm systems—that aren’t as strong as the Dodgers—the Blue Jays would differently ranked prospects. As well, some teams may value Happ less than they valued Darvish. Regardless of all of this, hopefully Blue Jays fans now have a better understanding of what Happ may pull in the open market.

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