On Saturday, July 7, the Blue Jays will play the middle game of a three game series against the New York Yankees. The game will feature an ace-on-ace match-up, J.A. Happ against Luis Severino.
Luis Severino had an interesting beginning to his major league career in New York. When called up for a playoff run in 2015, he pitched lights out, at just 21 years old. The right-hander posted a 2.89 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 11 starts.
However, in 2016, some of this magic seemed to fade away. In its place, the nasty revenge of regression was felt in full force. The young starter was dreadful as a member of the rotation, pitching to a 7.46 ERA. However, the Yankees turned his season around when they shifted him to a bullpen role. In eleven appearances out of the bullpen, the right-handed hurler was dominant, allowing just one earned run.
In 2017, the young starter found himself, pitching to a 2.98 ERA and 3.07 FIP during the year. His season was so good that there was serious Cy Young talk around his name. However, he had a rude awakening in the postseason, allowing three earned runs in a third of an inning of work—good enough for an 81.00 ERA. While he did come back against Cleveland with a seven inning outing in his next game, he never pitched past the fifth inning against Houston.
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The Yankees likely hope that 2018 will be the year that Severino puts it all together, as he has once again started Cy Young buzz. The righty has posted a 1.98 ERA, 2.24 FIP, 0.946 WHIP, and 214 ERA+. Even more impressive, he has managed these numbers in his age twenty four season. With half a season still to play, the right-handed hurler has been worth 4.4 fWAR.
The Yankees starter is an old-school pitcher in a young man’s body. The right-hander predominantly mixes between a good hard fastball, and a hard breaking slider. As well, to keep batters off balance, he will include an occasional change-up.
The four seam fastball has been used by the righty 50.4% of the time this season. The heater is incredibly fast, averaging a velocity of 97.48—with capability to touch 100 at any point in the game. Unsurprisingly, opposing batters have struggled to solve the four seamer, posting a .212 AVG and .316 SLG.
Severino’s go-to strikeout pitch, the slider, has been used 36.6% of the time this season. The slider, as mentioned, is quite hard, averaging a velocity of 88.13 mph with good cut and break. The slider has been untouchable this season, producing whiffs on 37.82% of swings and 78 total strikeouts. As well, even when batters make contact, they’re not hitting the ball hard, as the pitch has posted a tiny .217 SLGA.
The former bullpen arm has changed speeds on batters 13% of the time this season. The off speed pitch is also relatively fast, averaging a velocity of 88.13 mph with slight arm side run and drop. Unsurprisingly, the change has been the starter’s worst pitch, posting a .271 BAA and .375 SLGA. It says a lot, though, that these are bad numbers by Severino standards.
Anyone that has seen the Yankees ace pitch recognizes the relative ease with which he produces strikeouts. The starter has fanned batters at a great rate of 30.1%, posting a 10.50 K/9. However, his walk numbers aren’t great—but that should be expected from a young strikeout pitcher. The right-hander has allowed a 6.3% BB-rate and 2.21 BB/9.
Although the Blue Jays have plenty of experience, only a select few hitters have enjoyed playing against the young starter. Justin Smoak has owned the pitcher, producing six hits, including a double and two home runs, in 16 at-bats. As the icing on the cake, the first baseman has also walked three times. However, Russell Martin has been dreadful, producing just one single in ten career at-bats.
The Blue Jays have had a surprising amount of success against aces this year. The team has defeated both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer in the past three weeks—but also lost to Corey Oswalt this week. To say this team is confusing is an understatement. The Blue Jays will look to summon some of their magic stuff against the Yankees ace in order to win the marquee match-up.