Blue Jays: Comparable Relievers on the Trade Market

It’s July, and the Toronto Blue Jays are primed to sell off a few of their short-term pieces. The question is – what can the Jays get for some of their veteran relievers?

Evaluating trade assets is always a tricky thing. In fact, it’s more an art than a science, an art that few are particularly good at. On one hand, rentals can fetch a hefty portion of a team’s prospect capital, just look at David Price’s trade from the Detroit Tigers to the Toronto Blue Jays. While it turns out that the prospects the Jays gave up in that deal were not as valuable as their scouting reports suggest, it was huge at the time.

On the other hand, short-term acquisitions can prove to be downright useless in their effect on the team they’re traded to. Several instances over the past half decade have shown us that we need to be extremely careful when evaluating the true importance of a rental piece.

If trade deadline value was measured on a scale, that scale would have controllable young arms at the top, and veteran position players on expiring contracts at the bottom. Relief pitchers would fall somewhere in the middle, often fluctuating in demand and asking price.

This season, the Toronto Blue Jays have a bevy of bullpen arms they can sell off at the deadline. Speculation is sure to run rampant, of that I’m sure. Still, it’s interesting to take a look at a realistic asking price for some of these bullpen pieces.

The following slides will take a look at past examples of bullpen arms getting dealt at the deadline in an attempt to predict what the Blue Jays might be able to get back in a reliever trade.

Note: All statistics for active players are taken entering play on Thursday, July 5th, 2018

Past Blue Jays Trades

The Jays themselves have been a part of several deadline deals involving relievers at the deadline. As with all deadline deals, some have been prosperous for the boys in blue, while others have been forgettable, to say the least.

Most recently, the club picked up veteran reliever Mark Lowe at the deadline in exchange for farmhand Rob Rasmussen and prospects Jacob Brentz and Nick Wells. Rasmussen was more or less a throw-in, and neither Brentz nor Wells were ranked particularly high on the Jays top prospects list. In fact, neither had pitched above Rookie ball prior to being traded.

In the first half of the season, Lowe pitched to a stellar 1.00 ERA with 47 strikeouts in just 36.0 innings and was reasonably solid for the Jays for the remainder of the season. Despite the relevance of this trade, it’s worth taking into account that Lowe had never really experienced success at the major league level before the 2015 season, and was thus not deemed as valuable as others available at the time.

Currently, Jacob Brentz is playing for the High-A affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates, while Nick Wells has been up and down the ranks of the Seattle Mariners lower minors since being acquired. Rasmussen, now 29, retired at the end of the 2015 season after being released by the Mariners and attempting an unsuccessful comeback with the Los Angeles Angels.

Other notable trades made by the Jays involving relievers include those of Mark Eichorn in 1992, Jeremy Accardo in 2006 and Joe Smith in 2017. While it’s important to note that Accardo wasn’t a free agent at the end of the season, his trade can still serve as a measuring stick for other swaps involving relievers.

Recent Deals Elsewhere in the League

On the other side of the baseball world, many similarly structured deals for rental relievers have taken place. Last season, the Mets sent righty Addison Reed to the Red Sox for three minor leaguers, while the Phillies dealt Pat Neshek to the Rockies for a trio of youngsters, including Colorado’s 24th ranked prospect, pitcher J.D. Hammer.

Both veterans, the Reed and Neshek trades can be carefully examined to review the potential return on a dominant, proven reliever. Both righties, the two had at least some experience closing games at some point in their careers.

As for the Blue Jays, a potential Tyler Clippard deal can be compared to the Reed deal, while a trade involving Seunghwan Oh can be estimated to be closer to Neshek’s deal, given his team-friendly, modest option for the 2019 season and his recent success at the major league level.

Other notable trades include those of Zach Duke (traded for outfield prospect Charlie Tilson, number nine prospect in the St. Louis organization in 2014) and Fernando Abad (dealt to the Red Sox for fellow reliever Pat Light) in 2016 and Joe Blanton, who was acquired by the Pirates at the 2015 deadline for cash considerations.

Trades involving relievers can generally involve a ton of variation in result, return and overall success. Of all the trades mentioned above, the Zach Duke trade might be the likeliest comparable for this front office. In the past, we’ve seen them attempt to acquire prospect capital in the most reliable way possible, and using Duke’s model would fit into that perfectly.

The Current Going Rate for Relievers

Past trades can only be so indicative of what’s going to happen in a sticky and complicated trade market. While it’s great to look at comparisons, baseball history is not exactly super predictive. With that in mind, it’s crucial to take into account what current experts are saying about the going rate of relievers in this market.

According to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, the Miami Marlins are placing an “extremely high” asking price on their relievers. The relievers in question, mainly Adam Conley and Drew Steckenrider, are both under control beyond this year, so they cannot exactly be used as direct comparables.

Frisaro also notes that out of the pair, Conley, who is under team control until 2021, is most likely the one to go. With that being said, prior to this year (3.66 ERA, 19.2 IP, 22 SO), Conley has been rather mediocre at the major league level, pitching to an ERA of 4.60 in 303.0 major league innings with 255 strikeouts and 125 walks.

Despite the fact that Conley has team control, he hasn’t been consistently good, whereas Blue Jays relievers have had consistent results over the years. Now, this is not to say that John Axford will command the same prospect return as Conley, but it’s worth noting that while team control is a huge factor in deadline deals, it’s nearly worthless without consistency on the hill.

Other relievers currently on the market include Fernando Salas (who was designated for assignment this week) and Fernando Rodney of the Twins, who appears primed to be on the block in the coming weeks.

With all of the above taken into account, I think it’s fair to say that the market hasn’t been firmly established just yet, so unless they’re blown away by an offer, it’s difficult to see the Jays trading a relief asset this early on.

Where Do We Stand?

When it’s all said and done, the relief market is, as I previously mentioned, incredibly difficult to assess and even more difficult to navigate. In recent years, bullpens have dominated the postseason baseball strategies of champions, and we’ve seen relievers fly off the shelves faster than sale items at discount stores. The game seems to be changing, much to the satisfaction of relief pitchers.

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Even though the Jays don’t exactly have all-star closers on their roster ready to trade, in this polarizing and occasionally desperate market, that might be enough to net them enough pitching prospects to tide them over for a season or two.

If perchance, the Jays decide to part with their more controllable bullpen arms, then this conversation becomes very different, and in a lot of ways, more serious and analytical. Still, Tepera and fellow righty Danny Barnes are worth keeping in the back of your mind, as it doesn’t seem like this team is counting anyone out in terms of deadline deals.

With all this analysis and research, it’s still impossible to predict where the Jays will head at the deadline. Trade deadline swaps often happen quickly, impulsively, and occasionally crazily. As the 2018 trade deadline approaches, I implore you to keep your eyes peeled for rumours and reports, because they’ll be flying every which way.

No matter what happens, Jays Journal will be here to provide you with the latest rumours, news, and analysis to ensure that you’re kept in the loop as the trade deadline becomes an inevitably hectic and exciting affair.

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