Blue Jays: Looking beyond dealing just the “rental” contracts

Justin Smoak

The Blue Jays have been fortunate to receive a gigantic bargain from Justin Smoak’s production over the last season and a half. He made just 4.125 million during his 2017 All-Star campaign, makes the same this year, and has an option for six million for 2019. The option is a no-brainer for the Blue Jays to pick up at the end of the season, even if the rest of this year doesn’t go quite as well. For the moment though, his production has been certainly worth the salary, as he’s slashed .237/.373/.431 with nine home runs and 33 RBI in 59 games so far.

When you add up his power, his solid on-base percentage, his above-average defence, and his affordable salary, Smoak should have some appeal on the trade market. Slugging first baseman aren’t that hard to find, but Smoak adds a little more than just power to his highlight reel, and the extra year of commitment might make him more interesting to an acquiring team than another option who will be a free agent at the end of the season.

It’s hard to say what the Blue Jays could back in a trade for the former first round pick, but it likely wouldn’t be a huge game changer by any means. That said, we saw Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins get Teoscar Hernandez from Houston last year by sending over Francisco Liriano (the deal also included the Blue Jays taking Nori Aoki‘s contract), so exploring the market is absolutely worthwhile.

Smoak is a nice player for sure, but I don’t know that we should expect the Blue Jays to be pushing hard to contend in 2019, especially if they can’t pull themselves back into the race this year. The front office wanted to reward the fans for their loyalty by avoiding a full on rebuild at the end of last season, but I don’t think they’ll sacrifice much the second time around this winter. Because Smoak only has one year remaining on his deal, and it will likely be a lot more expensive to retain him after that, I don’t know if he fits into the long term plans all that well.

I don’t think you just give him away, but if the right deal presents itself I think Atkins and Shapiro will have to consider it. If Steve Pearce can ever get healthy he could man first base if he’s not traded too, or there are other options like Yangervis Solarte, and some in the minor league system. In a worse case scenario, there will be plenty of other veterans available if the Blue Jays find themselves in need of someone to finish out the season, especially after a brutal winter that saw so many experienced players looked for an opportunity at all.

Kevin Pillar

When this season began, I didn’t think Kevin Pillar‘s tenure with the team was going to last all that long. He managed to start the season very hot at the plate in April, just as he did in 2017, but has since slowed down and is back around his career norms in terms of a slash line, hitting .262/.300/.444.

He’s been valuable on both sides of the ball, even through his more recent struggles at the plate. I even think more highly of him now than I did before the season began, and I could see how he could fit in with the Blue Jays for a longer term picture than some of the others I’ll mention in this article.

That said, I don’t know that there will ever be a time that Pillar will be more valuable as a trade asset, and I’d probably make some calls to see what kind of interest there could be. The 29 year old has been worth 1.8 bWAR this year, and has been one of the most consistent performers for the Blue Jays over the last four years. For those of us that have watched him every day, he definitely has hit pitfalls as a player, but he’s been worth 4.9 (2015), 3.5 (2016), 2.8 (2017), and 1.8 year for a total of 13 bWAR since becoming a regular starter three and a half years ago.

For those front offices that look at numbers like that more than more traditional statistics, Pillar could jump out as someone to target, and I think the Blue Jays should consider it if the offer is right. Not because “Superman” isn’t still a worthwhile player to have around, but because he could be expendable with where things are at for this franchise right now.

He’ll be arbitration eligible for the second time this winter and thus getting more expensive, and he’ll also be 30 in January, which means he’ll have to slow down a little at some point. You can’t crash into walls forever and stay on the field, as he’s done for the last number of seasons. I do believe he has a few productive years left in him, but as I said above, I’m not sure that he’ll ever be more valuable on a trade market than he is now, and it might be time to take advantage of that.

With the presence of guys like Anthony Alford, Randal Grichuk, and more that have the ability to play centre field, if the offer is right I would consider dealing Kevin Pillar. If the return isn’t worthwhile, I think you hang on, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone came calling looking for a Gold Glove calibre defensive centre fielder with speed, and who looks good on paper.

Russell Martin

This one is a little more complicated, mostly because of the amount of money the Canadian backstop is due through the rest of his contract. I’m a big fan of his, but as far as the way the rest of his career lines up with the Blue Jays prospects, I’m starting to wonder if he’d rather play somewhere else if you asked him off the record.

At 35 years old, Martin is nearing the end of his career, whether he wants to admit it or not. He’ll likely have a few more seasons as a big leaguer, but it’s very difficult to play into your 40’s as a career catcher, even if you’re as good of an athlete as Martin. He remains as asset on the defensive side of things, but this year has been a struggle for him, as he’s slashed just .174/.317/.322 in 45 games played.

It’s more complicated because of his salary, but this one could come down to what the Blue Jays could get back in return as well. Let’s say he heats up at the plate over the next month or so and shows that he’s still an asset at the plate as well, wouldn’t a two-way veteran catcher have appeal to a contender? Taking on all of his contract could get in the way, but if the Blue Jays take something back in the deal like they did with Aoki last year, there could be a way to make this work.

I’m not trying to push Martin out of Toronto by any means, but with Danny Jansen looking like the real deal in Triple-A Buffalo, and Martin likely wanting to pursue a championship before his playing days are over, maybe this one makes sense in the grand scheme of things?

If the Blue Jays can’t get anything worthwhile in return for Martin in a trade, I think there is tremendous value in keeping him around to mentor Jansen into the next generation of this team. However, if the return is right and it sends Martin to somewhere that he can chase a ring, it could be mutually beneficial, even if it would be a bit of a bummer.

Marcus Stroman

Admittedly, this one is by far the most far fetched of the list, and I don’t think it’ll happen. That said, I think Stroman has established enough value throughout his career for there to be a ton of trade interest if he were made available.

He’ll need to get healthy and show that he’s more like the 2017 version of the ‘Stro Show than what he’s accomplished this year, but it shouldn’t be hard to convince people that he’s a top-level starter if he can have a few solid outings upon his return. He was one of the best starting pitchers in the American League last year, and at just 26 years old there’s no reason to think that he’s reached his ceiling just yet either.

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He does need to get healthy of course, something that’s been an issue for him this year. However, he should have enough time to get back to the Blue Jays before the July 31st trade deadline, and show that he’s healthy enough to help a team this year and beyond. He’s slated for a rehab start on Wednesday and hopefully will be able to join the big league club after a couple tune ups.

I definitely think Stroman could be a part of the long term picture for the Blue Jays, and he’s even expressed interest in committing to Toronto for the long term. However, this is one situation where I wonder what the Blue Jays could get in return if he were truly made available. He has two more years remaining before he’ll be a free agent and he’s bound to get more expensive, assuming he can get things right on the field and start pitching like we’ve seen him in the past. I’m not saying that you should trade anyone who is getting expensive, not at all, but sometimes you have to consider what the best ways to spend money might be. He’s also a bargain if he’s performing the way he did in 2017, so that’s something that makes a trade return even more valuable, should other GMs come calling.

If Stroman is truly interested in committing to the Blue Jays for the long term, and on a reasonable deal, then I think you have to keep both him, and Aaron Sanchez around as future building blocks. Not that either has had a great season to date, but there aren’t enough starters in the system for the Blue Jays to be trading them away unless the offer is one they can’t refuse. That said, I think there will be some big offers that come their way in July, especially if the duo can show their true colours on the mound prior to the deadline.

As I said, this is one trade I don’t expect to happen, but it also wouldn’t shock me to see Stroman in another jersey before the end of this season. The disappointing record of 2018 will give the front office the fuel it needs to build this team around the next generation (aka- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.), and Stroman is someone who may or may not fit into that description. He’s definitely young enough to be a part of that future, but it’ll ultimately come down to whether the Blue Jays think they can sign him for a figure that’s agreeable to both parties.

If they don’t think they can, don’t be surprised if trade rumours get pretty intense for the starting pitcher, or any of the other veterans I’ve mentioned. There’s almost no doubt that Donaldson, Happ, Granderson, and Estrada will be on the block, but I’d expect the Blue Jays to be one team that plenty of clubs will be circling. For what it’s worth, there is a lot of talent on this roster, despite what the numbers would say for 2018. If Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins play their cards right, this rebuild could be a lot shorter than people fear it could be, and it could include more than just the players on expiring contracts.

Next: Blue Jays injury update: Stroman, Vladdy Jr, Pearce and more