Blue Jays: Promising Starting Pitching Depth Waiting in the Minors

The Blue Jays starting staff has had more than their fair share of struggles this season. Despite being advertised as the strength of the 2018 Blue Jays, the rotation has often hindered them, rather than helping them.

For all the struggles of the big league rotation, the Blue Jays have had a few starters quietly playing well in the minor leagues. All of Deck McGuire, Chris Rowley, Sean Reid-Foley, Justin Dillon, and Ryan Borucki have pitched well at certain points in the minor leagues.

Starting pitching depth in the minor leagues is always an important topic, but it could become integral to the team’s success after this season. J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada are bound for free agency. As well, Jaime Garcia’s team option for next season may not be picked up. Therefore, the Blue Jays could potentially need to fill three rotation spots on next year’s roster.

Since Deck McGuire and Chris Rowley are both still toiling in the minors at 28 and 27 years-old, respectively, I don’t see them making significant contribution to a major league rotation. This is not to say that they couldn’t find a spot in the majors, but I don’t believe they will be impact starters for the Blue Jays. Therefore, I won’t spend much time focusing on what they’ve done this season—instead focusing on who I think have a strong chance to become a starter in the major leagues.

The Blue Jays also have both Taylor Guerrieri and T.J. Zeuch. Both have shown some promise in the minors, but not anything worth an in depth look, right now. Also, before his suspension, Thomas Pannone would have been an interesting name on the Buffalo roster.

However, each of Ryan Borucki, Justin Dillon, and Sean Reid-Foley are under 25 years old and have been quietly making names for themselves in double-A New Hampshire and triple-A Buffalo.

Ryan Borucki

Ryan Borucki entered the season with a fair amount of fanfare and hype. In fact, our own minor league specialist, Craig Borden, listed the left-hander as the tenth best prospect in the Blue Jays system.

Borucki has built off of the hype, posting a 5-5 record and 3.14 ERA in 10 starts for the Bisons. The big lefty is more than just his surface results, though. The young pitcher has made significant growth with respect to the type of contact he allows.

In his ten starts for the Bisons, Borucki holds an extreme ground ball rate of 57.1%. As well, he has decreased his fly ball rate to a better 29.4%. Last year, in double-A New Hampshire, he held a ground ball rate of 55.9% and a fly ball rate of 34.7%. While these are not major jumps/drops in rate, it shows that he is learning to produce better contact while playing against better hitters.

Borucki has been excellent at preventing home runs this season. Through 57 1/3 innings pitched, he has allowed a measly 0.47 HR/9. Some may be concerned by his below average HR/FB rate, 6.3%, but the left-hander’s past history proves that this number is mor sustainable than one would initially think. For example, in 20 starts for the Lansing Lugnuts in 2016, the young hurler held a criminally low 1.1% HR/FB rate and unbelievable 0.08 HR/9. Thus it is reasonable to assume that a below average HR/FB rate is sustainable.

The young left-hander is not perfect, or finished developing, by any means. He has struggled with allowing free passes this season. Currently in possession of an 8.1% BB-rate and 2.98 BB/9, he will need to work on his command to earn a spot on a major league roster. As well, he has slightly below average strikeout numbers—a 19.9% K rate and 7.38 K/9—so Borucki should avoid deep counts as much as possible. To pitch his best, he should pound the zone and keep inducing ground balls. This will allow him to avoid deep counts and start to reduce his walk rate.

Promisingly, he has allowed more than one walk just once over his past four starts. The results have been encouraging in these four starts, posting a 1.86 ERA—showing how effective he could be without allowing walks.

Borucki has proven the ability to go deep into games over his past six starts. Over these six appearances, the lefty has pitched at least six complete innings five times—throwing 5 2/3 in the one non-six inning start. As well, he has pitched seven complete innings twice in these six starts. Impressively, he has needed more than 100 pitches just once. Furthermore, he has thrown shut outs in half of the aforementioned starts. In total, the promising young pitcher has posted a 4-2 record, 1.69 ERA, and an average game score of 66.8.

With the hot streak that he is on, the former 15^th round pick may get a late call-up to the Major League team this season. Even if he doesn’t make the majors this year, a recently-turned-24-year-old dominating in AAA is never a bad thing for an organization. Personally, I would like to see him join the big club at some point this season. I think it is important to test him this year to see if he could take a rotation spot next year. Of course, this is under the assumption that the Blue Jays trade a starter if they are out of the wildcard race.

Sean Reid-Foley

Sean Reid-Foley is by far the best prospect of all these pitchers. At just 22-years-old, Reid-Foley still has a lot of years to develop and improve his game. The Blue Jays acquired him in the second round of the 2014 amateur players draft.

The big righty was recently called up to the triple-A Bisons and received a very rude welcome from Syracuse. The Bisons starter went just 2 1/3 innings, allowing eight hits, eight earned runs, and two walks. Usually a ground ball pitcher, the young starter produced ground balls at about half the rate he did while in double-A.

While in double-A New Hampshire, Reid-Foley was dominant. Through eight starts and 44 1/3 innings pitched, the right-hander owned a 5-0 record, 2.03 ERA, 54.5% GB%, and a 10.56 K/9. In fact, he never let in more than two earned runs in his double-A starts this season.

While he was roughed up in his first outing for Buffalo, he bounced back decently well in late May. Against the Columbus Clippers, the right-hander managed six complete innings, allowing five hits, three earned runs, and one walk to ten strikeouts.

Overall, the young starter owns an 0-1 record, 11.88 ERA, 12.96 K/9, 28% GB%, and 3.24 BB/9. These numbers, as already explained, are bloated by his poor first start for the Blue Jays triple-A affiliate. However, there are more than a few numbers suggest that big things await Reid-Foley in Buffalo.

First, his LOB% is a terrible 31.3% in Buffalo. While in New Hampshire, he held a good 87.3% LOB%. Therefore, it’s likely just a lack of comfort and high adrenaline that hurt the young pitcher in his first start.

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Further proof of his skill at the triple-A level, his FIP—fielding independent pitching—is a miniscule 1.55. This is incredibly low number would easily be the best number in the major leagues, right now. His low FIP suggests that he has been pitching well but had some bad luck from his fielding. Therefore, one can expect that his ERA will slowly lower back down to a much more impressive number over time—in short, don’t worry so much about his overall numbers right now.

Not to beat a dead horse, but his incredibly high .500 BABIP also suggests that he will eventually come back around. For reference, while in New Hampshire earlier this season, his BABIP was a more realistic .240. Starting for New Hampshire in 2017, it was .318. Eventually his BABIP at Buffalo will be back between .240 and .318.

Through two starts the right-hander has also yet to give up a home run. Amazingly, despite giving up eight earned runs in one game, he never allowed a home run. Limiting the long ball has always been a skill for the young starter. In fact, his HR/9 has only been over 1.00 once in his minor league career—his first year at double-A New Hampshire.

Reid-Foley has strong strikeout numbers in his minor league career. Even with his rough outing in Buffalo, he owns both a good 12.96 K/9 and 29.3% K-rate. Strikeout numbers, coupled with his strong ground ball rate, show the makings of a future impact starter in the majors.

However, the former second round pick is not without his faults. As you might expect from a strikeout pitcher, he has struggled with walks through his minor league career. In fact, even while dominating double-A earlier this season, he held a poor 4.06 BB/9 and 11.2% BB-rate. In my opinion, Reid-Foley needs to improve this facet of his game the most. He needs to learn to command his pitches to make it as a starter in the major leagues. Once he does have this skill, though, he could be dangerous.

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I don’t see a scenario where Reid-Foley sees a major league field this season. It seems he will continue to work in Buffalo and try to prove that he can handle this challenge. From there, I would expect him to start 2019 in triple-A, with a chance to play his way to the majors. Even this is a bit of a reach, though. Don’t be surprised if he was makes the big club in the 2020 season—when he would still be a very young 24-year-old starter.