Blue Jays: Comparing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to other teen call-ups

As the great debate continues about whether to promote Vladimir Guerrero Jr, let’s take a look at others who have debuted as teenagers, and how they fared.

When you have a prospect as special as Vladimir Guerrero Jr in your minor league system, it’s both a blessing and a (small) curse. The blessing is obvious, as the son of a Hall of Famer is displaying the kind of talent that scouts dream about, and he’s only 19 years old. On the downside, deciding how to best handle his development is a tricky question, and one that comes with criticism and analysis at every corner.

For the Blue Jays in 2018, the question started out as whether or not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be ready to perform at the highest level. Now that we’re in the middle of May, it’s not really an ‘if’ anymore, and has become a question of when. As of this writing, the young slugger is slashing .421/.472/.697 with eight home runs, 45 RBI, and 16 doubles in just 39 games played. Perhaps even more impressive is that he’s walked 16 times against 15 strikeouts in 152 at bats.

To say that he’s ready to move on from Double-A would be a gross understatement, at least on the offensive side of the ball. It’s expected that the Blue Jays will have to move him up to at least Triple-A in the next few weeks, but from there it’ll just be a matter of time before the pressure mounts on him to come to the Blue Jays. When you combine his hitting heroics with the epic struggles of guys like Kendrys Morales in the bigs, it makes promoting him that much more enticing.

That said, is it best for his long term development, or for the Blue Jays’ franchise? That’s a question that I have no doubt that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are struggling with daily. While it’s difficult to find a proper comparison for a young phenom like Guerrero, there have been a few youngsters who debuted at a very early age, and could give a window into how it either helped, or hindered their development. For the purposes of this exercise, I’ll be focusing on some of the more recent 19 year old call-ups.

Let’s have a look.

2012- Bryce Harper and Jurickson Profar

Here’s a great example of the two polar opposites of this discussion, and it happened just six seasons ago.

Bryce Harper was a phenom who was already on the cover of Sports Illustrated as a high schooler, and someone who was talked about for a few years before he became draft eligible. He was as no-doubt as it gets as a teenager, and the Washington Nationals were very fortunate to land a franchise player in the draft, especially at a time when they were building something pretty special.

Harper was an All-Star, finishing 30th in MVP voting (hey, he got a vote as a rookie), and of course won Rookie of the Year. He finished the season slashing .270/.340/.477 with 22 home runs, 59 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and 5.2 bWAR earned… as a 19 year old. He’s battled some injuries throughout his young career, but I think it’s safe to say that calling him up to the highest level at 19 didn’t have a major hinderance on his development. When you’re ready, you’re ready.

Jurickson Profar was an entirely different story, unfortunately. He played in nine games as a 19 year old, and then was given another 85 in 2013 as a 20 year old. The now 25 year old struggled with injuries for a few seasons before making it back to the Texas Rangers, but his career has not gone according to plan at all. Granted, injuries have played a major part, but so far he has hit just .229/.308/.338 through 248 games in his young career, and has been worth -0.2 bWAR.

At 25 years old he has plenty of time to change the story, but I’ve often wondered if another year or two in development would have left the young man in a better position.

2011- Mike Trout

If we’re going to talk about Bryce Harper, then it only feels natural to follow it up by looking at Mike Trout and his debut season at 19 years old in 2011. The Angels’ franchise player is another positive example of early success, as he’s been turning heads since he first arrived in the Show.

He only played in 40 games as a teenager and hit just .220/.281/.390 in 135 at bats, but it set him up well for his first full season in 2012. That year he slashed .326/.399/.564 with 30 home runs, 83 RBI, 49 stolen bases, and a ridiculous 10.5 bWAR. He won the Rookie of the Year award, finished 2nd in MVP voting, and was also named as a Silver Slugger, and an All-Star.

With all due respect to Harper, I view Trout as the best player of this generation, especially because of the 5-tool skill set he brings to the ballpark. He’s now 26 years old and has already earned 4.0 bWAR in 2018, so he hasn’t exactly slowed down from that epic rookie season in 2012.

Would Trout have benefitted from a longer stint in the minor leagues? I guess it’s possible, but can you imagine what he would have done to minor league pitching in 2012 if he was doing THAT in the big leagues? He’s another clear cut example that when you’re at the next level of talent, you can skip over a few steps.

The Angels are finally in a position to contend again with a team built around their franchise star, and there’s little to no debate about how his development was handled. He’s on a Hall of Fame course at this stage in his career, so I guess you could say it went just fine.

Three elite starting pitchers

Most of the top teenagers to play at the highest level recently have been position players, but there have been some seriously talented pitchers that have made the jump at a young age as well.

Let’s start with Madison Bumgarner, who debuted at 19 years old with the San Francisco Giants in 2009. He appeared in just four games that season, making just one start, so let’s have a look at the following year. The lefty went 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA in 111 innings pitched during his first real go around with the team, and quickly established himself as a force to be reckoned with in the National League. The following season he finished 11th in Cy Young voting, and if not for a couple of freak accidents off the field, Bumgarner’s counting stats would be even more impressive. His development was just fine.

Next we have Clayton Kershaw, who was technically 20 years old when his career began in 2008, but was only a couple months past his birthday, so I’m going to include him because of the similarities to the others in this section. Like Bumgarner, Kershaw had some early success and finished his first season 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA in 22 games (21 starts) during his rookie season. By his second season he had an ERA of 2.79 in 30 starts, and by 2011 he had won his first Cy Young. It worked out okay, I guess.

Lastly I’d like to include Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners, who debuted in 2005 not all that long after his 19th birthday. In 12 starts that first season, Hernandez held an ERA of 2.67, and a WHIP of .0996. The following year he also started a run of 10 straight seasons making at least 30 starts, and seven All-Stars appearances and a Cy Young award during that time. He may be fizzling out a little earlier than the Mariners had hoped at just 32 years old, but he’s got a lot of mileage on that right arm, especially since he started at such a young age.

The Upton brothers

Some of the highest ceiling, raw talent that we’ve witnessed in baseball over the last 15 years has come from a pair of brothers in B.J. and Justin Upton. Granted, neither of them have become the superstars that many thought they would, but both have had decent careers.

The better of the two careers belongs to Justin, who is currently playing with Trout’s L.A. Angels, and is now 30 years old. He debuted in the big leagues as a 19 year year old back in 2007 hitting .221/.283/.364 in 43 games. The following year he became a full-time regular, and by 2009 he was an All-Star for the Arizona Diamondbacks. While he’s had a great career, he’s always felt like there was some un-tapped potential in his bat.

B.J. (who now goes by Melvin Upton), has a more disappointing story than his brother’s, at least as far as MLB success. He played 45 games for the Rays in 2004 in his first season at the highest level, and made it back by 2006 to become a full time regular. The sky always felt like the limit for the talented outfielder, especially when he faced off against the Toronto Blue Jays. Unfortunately he couldn’t sustain his success, and never learned how to avoid building big strikeout totals at the plate.

In fact, Melvin might be the best recent example of a player that was arguably rushed to the big leagues earlier than he was ready for. Today he’s just 33 years old, and he hasn’t appeared in a MLB game since 2016. Perhaps if he had been given more time to work on plate discipline and other important skills, maybe his career could have had a greater upside. We’ll never know for sure, but there’s a solid argument to be made in his case.

Some Blue Jay examples

The Blue Jays haven’t had a teenager debut in recent history, but they have had a pair of 20 year olds on the lineup card.

The most recent was in 2015 when Roberto Osuna unexpectedly broke camp with the Blue Jays out of the bullpen. Both he and Miguel Castro were thrust into important roles early in the season, and handled it with the grace of men much older than they were at the time. By a couple months into the season, Osuna had become the youngest closer in baseball, and finished the season with 22 saves and a 2.59 ERA in 68 appearances.

While his career is currently facing other obstacles, there’s little debate about whether or not Osuna was ready for the big leagues. Some folks might point to the anxiety issues he struggled with last year, or the legal troubles he’s currently in, as signs that he needed more time to mature mentally, and physically. However, the success he has found on the diamond is unprecedented for a closer, as he became the youngest to reach 100 saves earlier this year.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays also have a classic story of a player who was brought up too early, or at least that’s the common belief. At the ripe age of 20 years old, Travis Snider received 73 at bats with the Blue Jays in 2008, and hit .301/.338/.466 with two home runs, 13 RBI, and six doubles. It was an exciting debut for the former first round pick, and it mounted some big expectations on his shoulder from the Blue Jays and their fan base.

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Unfortunately Snider never found his groove for an extended stretch at the big league level. His best season came a couple years later at 22 and tantalized the Jays even further when he hit .255/.304/.469 with 14 home runs in just 298 at bats in 2010. However, due to a variety of injuries, struggles at the big league level, and being yo-yo’d back and forth between Triple-A and the Major Leagues, Snider is one of the great “what if” stories in Blue Jays’ history. Still just 30 years old, he hasn’t appeared in a MLB game since 2015 when he split the year between Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

What do all of these names have to do with Vladimir Guerrero Jr? Well, obviously we’re looking at the effect of debuting at a very young age, and for some prospects that’s more than they can handle before they’re old enough to buy their own liquor. That’s also okay, for what it’s worth.

When it comes to the Blue Jays and the best prospect in the minor leagues, the most important question has to be “what is best for his development at this age?”. I don’t think you will find a lot of people who doubt his hitting ability, but being a big leaguer is more than that. Is his glove ready to play at the highest level? Will it harm his development defensively if he spends time DH-ing this year? Is he mentally ready to play against the best players in the world, even if his talent speaks for itself?

These are all questions that I’m sure the Blue Jays front office are grappling with, and the more than Vladdy hits, the more they have to face the reality of a pending decision. Personally, I hope he spends some time in Triple-A before being called up to Toronto, but I think it’ll be a matter of time before he proves he’s too much for that level too. At that point, the Blue Jays will have to make a decision on their teenage phenom, and my guess is we’ll see him in a Blue Jays uniform before the year is out, and before his 20th birthday.

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