Blue Jays: Five First Base Options If Justin Smoak Struggles

It’s a given that the Blue Jays will open season with Justin Smoak as their starting first baseman. He performed excellently last year in a bounce back season for the ages.

Despite his incredible campaign last season, it’s no guarantee he’ll recreate his offensive brilliance, or stay healthy, and the Blue Jays have options behind him. 

After a 2016 season in which he batted .217 and struck out 112 times (37% of his registered at-bats), Justin Smoak rebounded in a big way. Playing 158 games in 2017, Smoak batted .270/.355/.529 with 38 home runs and 90 RBI and saw his strikeout percentage decrease by more than 15%. He was named an American League All-Star and was worth 3.2 WAR.

It’s fair to assume that the Goose Creek, South Carolina native will start the 2018 season as the starting first baseman. His offense appears to be trending upwards, his glove is as solid as ever, and he’s all but secured a spot in the ever-changing, new and improved Blue Jays lineup. Steamer projections predict him to slash a modest .249/.337/.475, with 30 bombs in 140 games. This projection, while conservative, is probably accurate given Smoak’s history of high strikeout percentages and low batting averages.

In baseball, it’s always important to consider what happens if players deviate from their projections, for better or for worse. Sure, Smoak could repeat his stellar year and reprise his role as the Jays’ cleanup hitter, or he could regress. The latter is more important to examine, as it has more severe ramifications. Luckily, the Jays’ organizational roster is packed with potential candidates if Smoak struggles this year.

Of course, it’s always better to be optimistic, but it’s even more valuable if that optimism is cautious in its magnitude. That being said, here are five potential replacements for the starting first base job if Justin Smoak stumbles during the 2018 season.

Rowdy Tellez – A Homegrown Slugger

Rowdy Tellez is almost certainly the first name that’ll come to mind when discussing alternative first base options. Drafted by the Jays in the 30th(!) round of the 2013 draft, Tellez got off to an outstanding start in his first full year of professional ball, slashing .305/.375/.438 with 102 total bases in 65 total games between Lansing and Bluefield. Over the next two seasons, Tellez would continue to impress in Dunedin, Lansing and New Hampshire.

In 2016, his most successful season, Tellez batted .297/.387/.530 with 23 dingers and 81 RBI over a full season in New Hampshire. He struck out just 21% of his at-bats and swatted 29 doubles. He was also solid in the field, appearing in 101 games at first base.

Currently, Tellez, a Sacramento native, is set to begin the season in Buffalo, where he slashed an ugly .222/.295/.333 in 122 games last year. Despite this regression in production, Tellez is still ranked 15th on the Blue Jays prospect list.

His defense has been described as “serviceable”, but he continues to try and improve his glove while working on getting stronger. Surprisingly enough, Tellez stole six bases last year with Buffalo, even though he scored a 20 in the running category of the scouting scale.

Scouts rave about Tellez’s strong build – he stands 6’4” and weighs 200lbs, his ability to hit fastballs and his constantly improving strikeout rate. He’s only 22, so there’s certainly some time before we see this youngster in the bigs. Nevertheless, he’s a left-handed power bat with some interesting skills that could make him a serious candidate as Smoak’s replacement should he be needed.

Kendrys Morales- Veteran Powerhouse

Since his arrival in Toronto, Kendrys Morales has been underwhelming to say the least. Even though he slugged 28 home runs and managed 25 doubles, his average dropped 20 points below his career norms and produced a meager 97 wRC+, not ideal for a man earning $11 million annually in salary over the next two seasons.

Although his offensive value remains enigmatic, his defensive versatility is limited, but easily overlooked. In 398 career games at first, Morales has committed just 19 errors, playing as many as 152 games in a single season in the field. Last year, he played 12 games (103.2 innings) at first for the Jays, making one error. For his career, he’s been worth a terrific 14.5 UZR. Adjusted for his career regression, he’s worth 5.7 UZR, still above average in the American League.

He may be slow and often clumsy, but his glove is solid enough to play the position in a limited role. He’s also got some experience elsewhere when you consider that he played over 100 innings in the outfield, some of them as recently as 2016. Additionally, he’ll already be on the major league roster come April, eliminating the need to spend a roster spot on a first base replacement. Just like Solarte, he’ll be there regardless of what Smoak does, so having him as an option is quite valuable.

He’ll be entering his age 35 season, so expect some regression with the glove. Still, Jays fans have been disappointed with the former Royals slugger, and his newfound use could be satisfying to fans who wished they’d spent his salary elsewhere.

Steve Pearce – Constant Force

Another disappointing new Blue Jay in 2017, Steve Pearce failed to remain healthy and consistent in his debut season north of the border. While historically an undeviating offensive asset, Pearce struggled in 2017, slashing .252/.319/.438 in just 92 games, mostly in left field. He stumbled out of the gate, hitting .167 in April appearing in 17 games.

Pearce, unlike Solarte, has played roughly half of his major league innings at first. In 222 total games, he’s committed 10 errors, playing to a 9.5 UZR since his debut with the Pirates in 2007. His arm is also quite strong, seeing as he’s played the other half of his games in the outfield. For his career, he’s been considered an average defensive player, with most of his value coming from his bat.

If Pearce can stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe he can’t replicate his past success in Tampa Bay and Baltimore. He was initially slated to platoon with Smoak before the latter’s incredible comeback season. Pearce could still be a worthy platoon partner if the coaching staff decides to let Smoak play through his hypothetical struggles. His history of punishing right-handed pitching perfectly complement Smoak, who’s routinely hit lefties more effectively than righties.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t continue to emphasize the importance of Pearce’s current presence on the roster, meaning once again that no additional roster spot would be needed to make room for the Lakeland native. Of all the options mentioned above, he makes by far the most sense.

Jason Leblebijian – Underated Journeyman

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Even though he’s never played a major league game, Jason Leblebijian, a member of the Blue Jays minor league system since 2012, seems to be gaining a cult following among the Blue Jays faithful. Originally selected in the 25th round of the 2012 draft, Leblebijian has appeared in over 550 games for New Hampshire, Dunedin, Buffalo, Lansing and Bluefield, starting games at shortstop, second base, third base, first base and left field.

For obvious reasons, many fans have wondered why the Illinois native of Lebanese and Armenian descent hasn’t gotten the call yet. In his best year, he slashed .294/.361/.436 playing mostly for New Hampshire in 2016. In 2017, he slashed .258/.323/.405 for Buffalo.

His incredible versatility and his abundant major league options make him an enticing under the radar candidate for the spot. As of now, there’s not too much information about the front office’s plans for Leblebijian. He was invited to spring training and currently is projected by Roster Resource to score a cup of coffee with the big club in 2018.

Defensively, Leblebijian has been great in the field, appearing in over 200 innings committing just 2 errors at first. It’s unlikely he’ll make it to the bigs this season, but the Jays would be making a mistake by not considering him as a September call-up when the time comes.

Next: Donaldson's behind the eight-ball this spring

When it’s all said and done, we all hope Justin Smoak continues to obliterate baseballs for another year, and all the above analysis is purely for fun. Even with cautious optimism, it’s always good to have options, and the Jays certainly have several options at first.