Blue Jays: A War of Veterans for the Final Two Bullpen Spots

Pitching Depth. The one thing that the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays most desperately needed has been a major focus of the 2018 Blue Jays front office. This depth was enhanced by the signing of 33 year-old right handed reliever Tyler Clippard to a minor league contract. The one question remains, though: who makes the major league bullpen?

Currently, the bullpen projects to have two spots “available” on Opening Day. It is assumed that, barring any injuries, Roberto Osuna, Ryan Tepera, Seung-hwan Oh, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup all have locked positions. Our own Chris Henderson wrote about this earlier this week, and it’s been a well documented position battle for the Blue Jays this spring.

Battling for the final two spots are a group of veteran relievers, and two young, big, left-handed pitchers who spent most of last year in the minors. These pitchers are: John Axford, Tyler Clippard, Al Alburquerque, Craig Breslow, Tim Mayza, and Matt Dermody. Dermody and Mayza return after having spent last year in the Blue Jays’ system, while the others have signed on MiLB contracts this winter.

Matt Dermody, despite a relatively strong finish in the majors last year, seems to be pitching his way out of a spot in spring training. With 3.0 IP and five earned runs, it seems clear that Dermody will start the season in the minors.

However, Axford, Clippard, Alburquerque, Breslow, and Mayza, all still have a chance to make their case for the final two spots in the big league bullpen.

Tyler Clippard

The newest signing of the Blue Jays, Clippard has a chance to prove in the second half of spring training that he deserves to be a major league reliever. He’s had a history of throughout his career, even if he hasn’t thrived in recent efforts.

Last year, splitting time between the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, and Houston Astros, the veteran righty pitched for a strong 60.1 IP with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.293 WHIP. Despite being a fly-ball pitcher, Clippard’s strikeout numbers were relatively strong with a 10.7 SO9.

Playing in small ballparks on all three teams, Clippard was a victim of the long ball last year—giving up 10 HR in 60.1 IP. However, when traded to Houston, he discovered some alterations he could make with his hands to improve his game. With only 14.0 IP in the lone star state, Clippard felt he didn’t have enough opportunity to make the changes necessary to improve his game.

If these changes are truly as game-changing as he believes, it is possible he can outperform his current projections. Currently, Clippard is projected similarly to Axford at 61.0 IP with a 4.28 ERA and 64 strike outs against 27 walks.

Even without mechanical changes, these numbers project well for a low-leverage reliever. His high IP could help relieve the load from the higher-leverage arms. If Clippard makes the team, which seems probable, he would be a valuable inning-eating arm in the bullpen. Something the 2017 Blue Jays never truly had in JP Howell and Jason Grilli.

Al Alburquerque

Al Alburquerque is another in the long list of veteran minor league contracts with the Blue Jays. Alburquerque’s season last year was marked by inconsistency in both performance and homes, but he’s another veteran who’s had success at the highest level, and could be a worthy gamble.

Struggling early, he was up in constant limbo between AAA and the big club in Kansas City. Mid-summer, Alburquerque was released from the Royals and signed by the White Sox. After spending half a season with the south-siders, he was non-tendered and sent to free-agency during the offseason.

However, despite these tumultuous times, Alburquerque managed to post strong numbers in his short time in the major leagues. Posting a collective 18.0 IP with a 2.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP. However, he truly found his game in Chicago. In 8.0 IP, Alburquerque only allowed one earned run.

While in Dunedin, he has continued this dominating performance, pitching 2.0 IP to the tune of a 0.00 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, and a very strong 16.9 SO9. As well, it should be noted that this was all completed against an 8.1 OppQual.

With a hard sinker and slider, as well as an average fastball, Alburquerque’s projections see him similar to Axford and Clippard. Baseball reference projects him at 34.0 IP with a 4.24 ERA with 31 strike outs and 14 walks. These projections argue that 2017 was an anomaly for Alburquerque. The projection is based on a 30% rel, suggesting that 70% of these numbers are based on a regression towards the mean.

Tim Mayza

Tim Mayza is the youngest arm fighting for the final bullpen spot. Unsurprisingly, he is also the arm that provides the most upside and potential. With a fastball ranging from 94-98 Mph and a hard slider, Mayza fits the frame of a late-inning reliever perfectly.

The big lefty spent time in both AA New Hamshire and AAA Buffalo last year before being called up to Toronto. It was his time in Buffalo that most excited the Blue Jays. Over 19.1 IP, Mayza allowed just 2 earned runs. Overall, this culminated in an absurd 0.93 ERA and a 1.190 WHIP. However, as a pitcher designed to produce strikeouts, his 7.4 SO9 in Buffalo was cause for concern.

In his call up to the major leagues, Mayza was not that exciting based on surface numbers. In 17.0 IP, he posted a 6.88 ERA. However, the underlying numbers provide cause for excitement.

Mayza managed 27 strikeouts in the majors to just 4 walks. Showing that he once again found the ability to strike batters out. As well, with a great 2.98 FIP, there is reason to believe that his 6.88 ERA is bloated and would even out over a larger sample size.

In spring training, Mayza has been making a case for a big-league job. In just 3.0 IP, he has not allowed an earned run and has posted a ridiculous 0.677 WHIP. However, it should be noted, this was completed against a weaker 6.5 OppQual.

Despite having the upside of a high leverage arm, Mayza will most likely not make the team out of spring training. The Blue Jays will likely prioritize his development while giving the veterans an early chance.

In Buffalo, Mayza can  develop his craft in more intense, late inning, high-leverage positions. This invaluable practice will groom him to for an important role in the Blue Jays future.

Craig Breslow

Craig Breslow’s advantage over the other veteran relievers is that he is left-handed. Currently, the 2018 Blue Jays project to have only one left-handed reliever on the team—Aaron Loup. However, neither his spring numbers nor his 2017 numbers should inspire confidence in Craig Breslow.

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In 35.1 IP for Minnesota and Cleveland last year, Breslow posted a below average 5.09 ERA with a weak 5.9 SO9. As well, he was worth an uninspiring -0.1 WAR. The most concerning part of his game is that he gets hit, a lot. Last year, Breslow managed a 10.4 H9, not exactly something the team wants from a clean-up man.

During spring training, Breslow has only heightened these concerns. Over 2.2 IP Breslow has allowed 3 earned runs and posted a 2.625 WHIP with 4 strikeouts. Although these numbers were against the strongest competition of all of the pitchers at 8.5 OppQual, it doesn’t make a strong case for Breslow in the major league bullpen.

Projections are kinder to Breslow than the spring has been. Currently, he is projected at 44.0 IP with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.477 WHIP. However, these projections still see Breslow posting a weak 9.8 H9.

Unless Breslow turns it around and shuts down the rest of the spring training, don’t expect the veteran lefty to make the trip to Toronto in late March.

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