Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Outfield Depth Chart

Randal Grichuk:

In 122 games last year, Grichuk held a .238/.285/.473 slash line with 22 home runs and 59 RBIs. Currently, steamer projects Grichuk to hold a slightly better slash at .241/.293/.487, hit 25 home runs, and hold a .325 wOBA. However, with increased playing time and a solidified outfield role, Grichuk could gain the confidence needed to outperform these expectations, which is something I expect to happen.

Defensively, Grichuk has proven to be versatile and capable. It is also intriguing that last year, despite playing the most time in left field, his best numbers were in right field—the spot he should fill with the Blue Jays. Last year, while playing 55 games in right field, Grichuk held a .991 fielding percentage, committed just one error, added 3 outfield assists, and was worth 2 Rdrs. Expanded over 140 games, this would add up to a .990 fielding percentage, 2.5 errors, and 7.6 outfield assists. Rounding up, 8 outfield assists would have been just one off of tying for 4^th in the league with Giancarlo Stanton and Hunter Renfroe.

Kevin Pillar:

Despite his April offensive outburst last year, expect Pillar to go back to his old numbers this year. However, perhaps without the pressure of leading off, Pillar may make slight improvements on his offensive game. Really, though, unless he improves his eye at the plate, he’ll never be much of an offensive threat. Projected at .269/.312/.412 with a 26/79 strikeout to walk ratio, Pillar projects to have yet another classic Pillar offensive year—nothing flashy but nothing that will really, badly hurt the team, either.

A perennial gold glove award snub, Pillar will undoubtedly keep his spectacular defensive play in 2018. This is where most of the value of Pillar is found. Holding a .997 fielding percentage, adding 8 assists, committing just one error, and worth 15 Rdrs, Pillar’s defensive numbers speak for themselves. As well, entering just his age 29 season, there shouldn’t be any worry about regression, yet.

Curtis Granderson:

Entering his age 37 season, Curtis Granderson will not be the same offensive threat that he used to be. However, in a platoon role, Granderson may receive the rest that he needs to maintain his offensive ability. Currently projected at a .239/.340/.450 and an offensive runs above average of 4.5, Granderson will be more than serviceable in left field. His down year last year likely can be attributed to a tough year for the Mets, being asked to play too often, and being traded across the country mid-way through the season.

Granderson’s defensive numbers are worrisome. Advertised as a defensive upgrade from the likes of Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera, the numbers show just how low of a bar that is. Holding a good .991 fielding percentage across all outfield positions, the concern in Granderson’s defensive game comes from Rdrs. Granderson was a -4 Rdrs last year. For reference, that is only 1 Rdrs better than the supposed defensive liability J.D. Martinez.

Steve Pearce:

The other half of the left-field platoon, Steve Pearce may benefit from a season of better health. However, there are no guarantees this will hold up. Pearce didn’t hurt the team offensively last year but he didn’t add very much. In 2018 he is projected to have a .787 OPS with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs. These numbers do not inspire much confidence. However, left field is upgraded as a platoon. Therefore, a platoon of Pearce/Granderson already looks better than a Pearce/Carrera platoon.

If Curtis Granderson was defensively worrisome, Steve Pearce is a defensive nightmare. Truly an infielder by trade and an outfielder by necessity, Pearce is a liability on the defensive side of the game. For Toronto last year, Pearce had assists and errors equal at two and held a .985 fielding percentage. However, as anybody who has seen Pearce play left field could tell you, these stats are misleading. The speed is simply not there to play an effective defensive left field. This fact is evident in the -6 Rdrs that Pearce was worth in just 85 games in the outfield last year.

Teoscar Hernandez:

Hernandez, by virtue of having minor league option years available, will likely begin 2018 in AAA Buffalo. This minor league assignment will provide a more accurate picture of who Hernandez will be for the Blue Jays in the future. During his September call-up, Hernandez quickly won the hearts of Blue Jays fans with his strong offensive play. However, a month is not a true test of a young ballplayer and his time in the minors will show how successful he may be in the future. Last year, in his collective minor league stats, Hernandez held a .265/.351/.490 slash with 18 HR and 66 RBIs. While not amazing, an .841 OPS is nothing to scoff at.

Defensively, there is also room to improve. Across two teams last year, Hernandez converted putouts on 125/135 defensive chances. However, with plus speed and arm strength—fangraphs scouts him as a 50-55 in both categories on an 80—Hernandez has the raw ability to be a plus defender in the majors. Perhaps a year with one coaching staff and no trade rumours will allow Hernandez the focus he needs to develop a complete game.

Ezequiel Carrera:

The only upside that Carrera has in his game is his offense. With a quick, slashing stroke, Carrera can get on base and spray the ball across the park. Holding a respectable .282/.356/.408 slash line and weak power numbers, Carrera can’t be expected to produce much more than singles when he comes to the plate.

Defensively, Carrera is essentially the anti-Pillar. Although he does have good speed, it is clear that he does not have a good feel for the position. Last year there were many times that Carrera seemed lost in left field. The numbers only prove this perception of his defensive skill. Across all three outfield positions, Carrera has a collective .973 fielding percentage, four errors, five assists, and was worth -14 Rdrs. Despite these lacking numbers, the Blue Jays will likely carry him on the roster out of spring training.

Next: Blue Jays: Health is the elixir for successful 2018 campaign