Blue Jays: Bargains to be had at the back end of the rotation

A couple of lefties

Jason Vargas

Believe it not, Jason Vargas was an All-Star with the Kansas City Royals as recently as last season, so you’d think there would be several suitors lining up to add him to their rotation. As far as the rumour mill is concerned, that hasn’t been the case at all.

When you look at his final numbers, things look even more impressive as he finished with a record of 18-11 and an ERA of 4.16 across 32 starts at 179.2 innings pitched, earning 3.8 WAR in the process. The problem was that it was a tale of two seasons for the 34 year old left-hander, and the second half wasn’t kind to him at all.

After going 12-3 with a 2.62 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Vargas imploded with a 6.38 ERA across 15 starts in the second half. Things soured pretty much across the board, and on another team he may have lost his spot in the rotation.

He would be a gamble to be sure, but he could be a worthwhile one if the signing team gets something closer to the first half version of Vargas than what we saw in the second half.

Jaime Garcia

Another southpaw, Garcia had an interesting 2017 season and probably got pretty good at packing as well. He started the year with the Atlanta Braves, and was traded twice before the non-waiver deadline, first to the Minnesota Twins and then eventually to the New York Yankees.

His numbers aren’t particularly enticing as he was 5-10 with a 4.41 ERA across 27 starts at 157 innings pitched, but he doesn’t have to be an ace to fit the Blue Jays’ needs in 2018. As a fifth starter, he could provide a steady veteran presence who could offer a solid amount of upside and should come on a cheap deal, at least when you consider the market at the moment.

I’m not suggesting that Garcia is the answer, but at just 31 years old and far enough removed from the injury troubles he had back in St. Louis, I wouldn’t be surprised if his addition did the trick for John Gibbons‘ rotation, especially if Aaron Sanchez can stay healthy.

The Underrated?

Chris Tillman

The Blue Jays have reportedly checked in with Tillman and his agent, and are more than familiar with him because of his time with the Orioles in the American League East. Once considered the ace of the Orioles staff, Tillman’s star has faded considerably in recent years, especially when you look at the numbers from last season.

The right-hander finished the year 1-7 with a 7.84 ERA in 19 starts and 24 appearances, throwing just 93 innings. So why would the Blue Jays be interested? Well, they had a front row seat when he went 56-30 from 2013-2016, and when he had an ERA under 4.00 in three of those seasons.

He’ll look to post a strong bounce back year in hopes of re-establishing his value on the market, and as such a one year “pillow contract” would probably make the most sense. If you were counting on him to front the rotation you would be in serious trouble, but as a #5 starter he could work out to be a bargain if he can regain his form.

Andrew Cashner

The 31 year old likely has a little more value than some of the other names on this list, but that doesn’t mean he has any more teams lining up to sign him.

The big righty went 11-11 last year with a 3.40 ERA across 28 starts for the Texas Rangers, quietly putting together a nice season in Arlington. He had shown tremendous promise early in his career before struggling through 2015-16, and then eventually bouncing back last year.

Cashner likely profiles as better than a #5 starter, but in this market he may take the best offer put in front of him. If the Blue Jays want more of a needle mover and don’t want to pay for the likes of Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb, or Lynn, Cashner might be the next best thing.

Maybe Worth A Shot?

John Lackey

I don’t think this one has much of a chance of happening, but Lackey does have experience in the AL East, and has been a member of a playoff team with the Cubs the last few years. He finished last season earning 1.1 WAR with a record of 11-11 and an ERA of 4.59 in 30 starts, and 31 appearances. And also keep in mind that this is the 5th spot in the rotation we’re talking about here.

That said, he’s 39 now and it’s hard to predict what he’s got left in the tank. On the right kind of bargain deal he could be worth a flyer to fill out the rotation, and there’s a good chance he’ll be able to eat some innings if nothing else. That in itself would have value for the Blue Jays, especially if Aaron Sanchez can’t stay healthy, or if one of the other projected starters faces injury troubles.

Brett Anderson

The southpaw saw time in a Blue Jays uniform late last season, and mostly impressed in his short tenure. He made seven starts for the Jays and the numbers look worse than his performance actually was, as he finished with a 5.13 ERA in 33.1 innings pitched. For the most part, he looked like an experienced veteran that is more than capable of filling out an MLB rotation, with the key of course being that he was healthy.

It shouldn’t surprise us if the Blue Jays renew interest in the soon to be 30 year old, as the stretch run of last season basically served as an audition for the injury prone former 2nd round pick. It would appear they have their sights set a little higher on possible rotation upgrades, but Anderson could be a cheap depth option that could turn out to be a bargain if he can stay healthy.

Wild Cards

Jake Peavy

I know you’re probably thinking I’ve lost my mind here, but hear me out on this one. I don’t think the Blue Jays should be satisfied with Peavy as their 5th starter, or even offer him a MLB contract. However, what’s the harm in giving the former ace a MiLB deal and seeing what he’s got in camp? Also, I’m a sucker for a comeback story and I’m rooting for the guy a little bit.

He’s reportedly been working hard at a comeback and is serious about a return despite sitting out the 2017 season. He won’t turn 37 until May and found some late career success with the Giants on a repertoire that was more about movement than velocity. Maybe a year off will have done his body enough good that he could contribute at the big league level.

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Matt Garza

Speaking of veteran right handers that could be had very cheap, Matt Garza fits the bill in much the same way that Peavy might, despite having played last year. He was once a highly sought after free agent earlier in his career, but these days he hasn’t really been talked about in any circles that I’ve come across.

He spent last season with the Brewers and it wasn’t his finest performance, finishing the year 6-9 with a 4.94 ERA in 22 starts and 24 appearances. He’s been a below league average starter every season since 2014 when he was 8-8 with a 3.64 ERA in 27 starts, and it’s hard to imagine that he’ll get a guaranteed rotation job anywhere.

On a MiLB with a shot to earn a job, why not? Again, this page in particular is more about extreme flyers and not really solutions, so I’m not suggesting the Blue Jays should sign Garza and call it a day at all. If they strike out on their other targets and can add Garza on a MiLB deal to see what he’s got in camp, it doesn’t hurt to have a look. Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Ubaldo Jimenez, and maybe even former Red Sox Clay Buchholz could be in for a similar fate. The options at this level are plentiful, as most of these guys are just looking for an opportunity.

As I said earlier in the article, I truly believe the Blue Jays should take a serious run at Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb, as they should have enough remaining funds to make a reasonable offer if they so choose. However, if that doesn’t work out then they would be well advised to add some additional depth, and there are plenty of experienced starters out there. They could also use some of their outfield depth or other pieces to pursue yet another trade, but one way or another you’d have to think that Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro will add an starter before spring training gets underway.

Next: Blue Jays a fit for Melky Cabrera?