Blue Jays: Don’t expect a move until after the Christmas holidays

The entire MLB off-season has been very quiet outside of the New York Yankees acquiring Giancarlo Stanton, the St. Louis Cardinals trading for Marcell Ozuna, Shohei Ohtani going to the Los Angeles Angels, and the Philadelphia Phillies signing Carlos Santana. Outside of the bullpen market, there’s been very little action and that includes the Toronto Blue Jays.

The only move they’ve made is dumping Ryan Goins and adding Aledmys Diaz, which is a solid move. Going forward, I don’t expect another Blue Jays addition until after the Christmas holidays.

One reason for my hunch is just based on how slow the market has developed to this point. The only major hitter to be signed thus far has been Carlos Santana. There hasn’t been a big name free agent pitcher to sign anywhere yet either. It’s been a very slow developing market and that is likely going to continue for a little while longer.

The biggest reason for my line of thinking is based on a few things:

• The contracts for a lot of the core (Josh Donaldson, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, etc.)
• The names the Blue Jays have been linked to

It’s very clear to me that after this season, all of the guys who enter this season in contract years will be gone when the next wave of the Toronto Blue Jays reach the MLB level in 2019. That signals the Blue Jays taking one more go of things with the current core and hope for health and a bounce back for a lot of the key cogs like Happ, Estrada, Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Steve Pearce, and Aaron Sanchez. A lot of those guys either underperformed or missed extended periods of time. One could argue quite strongly that if half of those guys stayed healthy, they would have been in the playoff race much longer than they were.

It’s also quite clear to me that the Blue Jays are perfectly content with waiting out the free agent market as opposed to last year when they would have already signed Morales and Pearce. Given the contract status of a lot of the core, it’s unlikely the Blue Jays are going to heavily pursue big-time free agents to long-term deals when they’re on the wrong side of 30. Of course, the other option is some of these big name free agents they’ve been linked to like a Lorenzo Cain or Alex Cobb have their price tag drop to a price they are comfortable with. To me, they simply don’t want to overpay for one of the bigger free agents they’ve been linked to.

The other aspect of some of the realistic names the Blue Jays have been linked to like Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, and until a few days ago C.C. Sabathia is that the front office is comfortable paying guys on a one year deal and give them the chance to bounce back. Carlos Gonzalez is the biggest example of that given that he’ll likely be relatively cheap and on a one year deal. It does seem as if they’re looking for value free agent signings in the outfield and infield as opposed to making the big splash.

Why do I think they’re taking this approach? Two reasons:

1. The front office doesn’t feel pressured to make a move because of their in-house options

2. The front office legitimately believes that if the team remains healthier and guys get a tad closer to their career norms (Morales being the biggest example of the latter), that they’ll be very competitive.

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To address the first reason, they’ve already made one move to almost patch up the middle infield depth. Aledmys Diaz was a great pickup and will provide more than Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney did. They likely will add another infielder for depth purposes, but that infielder will also be able to play in the outfield. That’s why there’s been a lot of chatter about guys like Jonathan Villar.

Adding on to reason 1, the Blue Jays would be okay not adding a 5th starter unless one met their price tag because they have some better depth than last year. Joe Biagini is currently the de-facto 5th starter with Ryan Borucki and Chris Rowley right behind him. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Biagini ended up as the 5th starter, which is why they don’t feel the need to make a big move to fill that hole. The same can be said for the gap in the outfield. Unless its a 1-2 year prove it deal, they’re likely fine with having an open competition between guys like Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Alford, Dalton Pompey, and Dwight Smith Jr. to go along with Kevin Pillar, Steve Pearce, and likely Ezequiel Carrera.

Reason 2 is quite simple. I do believe that if the Blue Jays stay healthier and guys perform like the front office thought they would, they’ll be in a wildcard race much longer than a season ago. They’re taking one more shot with the current core and if it goes well, they’ll add at the deadline. If it goes poorly, they’ll sell at the deadline. No need for big moves or overpaying guys this off-season.

Of course, this is entirely my own speculation based on what I’ve taken away from quotes made by Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro. Perhaps they will make a splash on Lorenzo Cain or trade Josh Donaldson.

Next: Blue Jays: Some things are better left unsaid

However, based on everything I’ve heard, the contracts for a lot of the current core, and the names they’ve been linked to, I don’t think we’ll see a move until after the Christmas holidays because the front office is quite content waiting it out for bargains via free agency or trade.