Blue Jays: Can they trade Donaldson and still contend?

Early off-season impressions seem to suggest that the Blue Jays are working harder to keep hold of Josh Donaldson than they are to acquire talent to compete. There is a lot of interest from around the Majors for the 2015 AL MVP, so is there a way in which the Jays could flip Donaldson and still contend in 2018?

The Blue Jays have made it clear that Josh Donaldson is not on the trading block, and that any plans to contend in 2018 revolve around him. However, on the back of an 86-loss season and not yet making any significant moves – trading for Aledmys Diaz as a back-up infielder isn’t too ground-breaking– doesn’t bode well to fulfil the promises from the front office.

In a year where all American League teams with a record of >.500 made the play-offs, in theory the Jays (who finished at .469) don’t have too much work to do to make it back there.

There is no evidence to suggest that the playoff line will be drawn at .500 once again. However, working in layman’s terms to simplify the process, is there a way to trade Donaldson and still reach .500 (and the playoffs)?

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FanGraphs Steamer projects Donaldson to be a 6.4-win player in 2018. If flipping Donaldson loses 6.4 WAR, and having finished five games under .500 in 2017, that means that the Jays need to replace the “Bringer of Rain” with 11 wins (or WAR) to reach the post-season. The Jays would need to bring pieces back to Toronto in the trade; pieces ready to play in the big leagues, preferably a corner outfielder, a back of the rotation pitcher, and a third baseman (presuming Vlad Guerrero Jr. is still a few years away, and Diaz isn’t to be an everyday player).

The trade to make the playoffs

Jerry Dipoto, Seattle Mariners GM, was unsuccessful in his pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, but his move to acquire Dee Gordon from the Miami Marlins to play centre field shows that he isn’t afraid of making a big move, as he’s also frequently shown in the past.

The Blue Jays send Josh Donaldson and MLB Pipeline number 3 prospect Anthony Alford to Seattle, getting Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger and Mike Leake. Blockbuster, I know – but you can’t expect to pick up an MVP for nothing, can you?

While the Jays would be giving up their face of the franchise, Alford is unproven and went 1-8 when given PAs in 2017. He’s expected to be a solid major leaguer, but if the Jays want to challenge in 2018 he isn’t the answer. Seattle would also help their pennant chase despite giving up starters; they add an elite bat to make up a fearsome middle order alongside Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz , whilst also having additional outfield depth, and allowing Guillermo Heredia the chance to step up full time in right field.

The acquisitions for the Jays would also move straight in. Seager (3.6 WAR) replaces Donaldson at third and Haniger (1.8 WAR) can fill the right-field gap; offering defensive stability in both spots and a combined 40-50 home-runs over the course of the season. Lastly, Leake (1.9 WAR) would make a handy number five starter; a durable arm to offer innings, and a mid-range ERA and K/9 that would allow Joe Biagini to return to the ‘pen.

With Alford projected at 0.0 WAR (expected to at least start in the minors), the Jays replace Donaldson’s 6.4 WAR with 7.3 WAR, leaving the front office just four wins to find; all of which could theoretically come from the 2017 DL. A healthy Aaron Sanchez offers nearly two WAR more in 2018 than he did in 2017, Troy Tulowitzki would provide 2.5 WAR more, and Devon Travis could add one as well. Shall I pencil the Jays in for the Fall Classic now?

Next: Blue Jays: Some things are better left unsaid

The chances of a trade like this taking place are very slim, but it would help in the long term (assuming they don’t re-sign Donaldson), and still give the 2018 team a chance to compete. As far as hypothetical ideas go, there are definitely a lot worse.