Blue Jays: Why the AL East just got a little easier

The AL East has had five competitive teams over the last five or more seasons. That’s about to change, and it should benefit the Blue Jays.

Before you call me an idiot, yes, I’m aware of the moves that the New York Yankees have been making recently, and that it doesn’t look like they’ve done yet either. They’re virtually guaranteed to be a superpower again in the American League, which harkens memories of the late 90’s and 2000’s, when the Yankees and Red Sox were the only two relevant teams in the AL East. They are the favourites for the AL East, and I won’t dispute that.

However, fast forward to 2017 and we could very well be on the cusp of a return to that dynamic in the division. In addition to the Yankees returning to dominance, the Red Sox have built a talented young roster, and were the winners of the division in 2017. They’ve got plenty of controllable assets, and looked poised to be contenders for at least the next five years as well. Put the two of them together, and it’s a tall order for the Blue Jays to compete.

That said, there is another side to this whole situation, and one that could play more into the Blue Jays’ hands. Over the last five or more seasons, the AL East has actually had as many as five teams that were playoff worthy, and each team in the division has qualified for the playoffs during that time. This kind of parity actually kept that Yankees out of the playoffs a few times, which was a beautiful thing to see.

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However, as the offseason develops, it’s becoming more and more clear that the Rays and Orioles understand their place in the food chain. The Rays, with a payroll that would handicap any front office, can’t do much other than sell their valuable pieces again, and the Orioles could be on the cusp of a firesale as well, as it’s been reported that Manny Machado may even be on the trade block, which is as sure of a sign as it gets for Buck Showalter and company.

If that’s the case, suddenly the Blue Jays not only have an easier road in the standings, but they just got a little break in their 2018 schedule, compared to what it could have been. In the big leagues, teams will play against the division rivals a total of 19 times a year. If this offseason develops as it’s looking like it may, that means the Blue Jays will get the Machado-less Orioles (and maybe more players sold off), and the Rays could be selling plenty of veterans like Evan Longoria, Alex Colome, and maybe even starters like Chris Archer, or Jake Odorizzi.

Last year the Blue Jays finished 33-43 in games against their division rivals, which obviously was a big blow to the rest of their schedule, but they played .500 baseball against everyone else. Sure, their games with the Yankees and Red Sox are still going to be daunting, but does the marginal improvement of those two teams outweigh a big step back from the Orioles and Rays?

I doubt it.

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