Blue Jays: The time to trade for Andrew McCutchen is now

Raise your hands if you’ve heard that the Toronto Blue Jays and Andrew McCutchen are a trade waiting to happen, or a trade that should happen? I’m sure that’s most of you. After thinking about the composition and contract status of the projected 2018 roster for the Toronto Blue Jays, it occurred to me that the time to trade for Andrew McCutchen is now, and that it has never made any more sense.

The past two years haven’t been close to the level of play we’ve become accustomed to seeing from Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 NL MVP. In 2016, he had his worst season as a Pirate with a 0.6 fWAR. A lot of that can be attributed to a nagging injury from the majority of the season, and when he finally got healthy he finished that season strongly. In 2017, he bounced back to a 3.7 fWAR, which was right around where he was in 2009 and 2010 when he was just starting his career.

From 2011 to 2015, McCutchen cemented himself as a legitimate superstar in centre field for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s no coincidence that as McCutchen got better and better, the Pirates did as well. They finally broke their long playoff drought in 2013 which was the year he won the NL MVP. McCutchen has long been the face of the franchise for the Pirates, but after a poor 2016, the trade rumours started circulating last off-season.

McCutchen and the Pirates missed the post-season in 2016 for the first time since the 2013 season. Three straight years of making the post-season and three straight years of playing in the NL Wild Card game, where they won once and lost the last two. The Pirates ran into awful luck having to face Madison Bumgarner in 2014 and Jake Arrieta in 2015, both of whom threw complete game shutouts. The miss of the 2016 post-season and the terrible season from McCutchen had people thinking it may be time for a rebuild with the rise of the Chicago Cubs, and the always competitive St. Louis Cardinals.

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It was no secret that the Pirates were shopping McCutchen last off-season. At one point, there was speculation that he would 100% be moved in the offseason. When they couldn’t find a trade partner, the Pirates stated they were extremely happy to keep the face of the franchise around but that he wouldn’t be playing centre field, as Starling Marte was to be moved there. That didn’t last long as Marte ended up getting suspended. It was an awkward offseason for McCutchen, and the Pirates missed the playoffs again in 2017.

With the Chicago Cubs likely to still dominate the NL Central for the next few years, the Milwaukee Brewers getting better, and the Cardinals reloading, it may be time for the Pirates to move off of McCutchen this offseason. He is a free agent at season’s end and it’s unlikely he will pass up his only shot for a big contract, one that the Pirates organization wouldn’t be able to afford. That means that if I were the Pirates, I’d be looking to move him this offseason to get as much value as possible.

That is where the Toronto Blue Jays come in. They have a need for an outfielder, that much is clear. And by all accounts from what we’ve heard from Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, 2018 is still a season they intend on competing in. The outfield is currently slated to feature Kevin Pillar, Steve Pearce, and potentially one of Anthony Alford or Teoscar Hernandez. I think the Blue Jays would like both Alford and Hernandez to begin in Buffalo in a perfect world. Regardless, with the current in-house options for the outfield, that doesn’t scream an group for a contending team.

An addition of Andrew McCutchen would certainly make the outfield much better, there’s no denying that. After all, he is a career .291/.379/.487 hitter with a wRC+ of 137. He also has a career 11.8 BB% and 17.8 K%. Great production. But the ultimate reason, in my mind, that this is the time to make a potential trade is due to his contract.

Yes, the Blue Jays would only have McCutchen for one season. The price would be steep but one that is worth pulling the trigger on too. He has one year remaining on his deal worth $14.5 million, which was a team option. That is certainly a contract the Blue Jays can afford to add. They can also afford the prospect hit that it would take. I’m not talking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette here. But there is enough guys in the tier below them that likely could be of interest to the Pirates. Even some closer to being MLB ready could make sense as well. Regardless, the price tag would be less expensive than last offseason because of one less year of control.

The one year remaining on the deal is the key here. 2018 is meant to be a season where the Blue Jays contend, and McCutchen’s deal lines up with that timeline. Key cogs also on the roster with one year remaining on their deals are Steve Pearce, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, and of course, Josh Donaldson. Should the Blue Jays decide to keep Donaldson for 2018, acquiring McCutchen is a move that needs to happen. If the season goes belly-up, they could recoup some of the lost prospect capital by moving McCutchen at the deadline to a contender. They may not get equal value in return for what they would send to the Pirates, but some could come back. They can also make up the lost capital in moves that involve those listed above.

In my mind, this is the final year the Blue Jays have with the majority of the core from the 2015 and 2016 playoff teams. Edwin Encarnacion is gone. Jose Bautista is gone. The production from Troy Tulowitzki may be gone, though the legend of his name remains for a few more years. It’s also likely Josh Donaldson will be gone following this year. J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada could move on as well. All that will remain from the 2015-16 offensive playoff core after this season is the ghost of Tulowitzki, an aging Russell Martin, the unknown of Justin Smoak, injury prone Devon Travis, and Kevin Pillar. The core in 2019 will be turned to Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Anthony Alford, Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen, maybe Rowdy Tellez and hopefully Vlad Guerrero Jr. as soon as 2019 with Bo Bichette a year after.

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Why not give it one more run with the Josh Donaldson core by adding Andrew McCutchen? In my mind, pulling the trigger on this deal has never made more sense. It also makes more sense than overpaying for Lorenzo Cain with so much potential in the outfield nearing the MLB level. If the Blue Jays are dead set on competing in 2018, given all the free agents at season’s end, trading for Andrew McCutchen is a must for this off-season.